Saturday, November 30, 2013

Michael McStay Statement Analyzed


A man, his wife, and two children went missing in 2010.  Their remains were found in makeshift graves.  Recently, Michael McStay spoke out.  Readers here have requested analysis of his words.

There is no conclusion to be drawn from this short statement.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kc27XrRLxuI

 "Good morning, it’s not really the outcome we were looking for. But umm… itgives us courage to know  that they're together and they're in a better place. I know umm (I talked to?) my father, who is in Texas and my Aunt Carol, and um, it’s been a tough road. Um, so we would ask that you would give the family members their space and let us go through the grieving process.  Mm, my family, appreciates all the support and the love that we’ve been shown.  They were a loving family, ...and I know that all of America loves the Mcstays. ...We're gonna find this individual, or individuals and everyone want’s to bring them to justice. ..And if it’s the last thing I do I wanna, I just wanna know ... that you know, ... when it’s over. Umm..(shakes head) that’s all.

Michael McStay was under duress when he spoke these words.  The video appears that he was not reading them. 

When someone is under duress, we recognize that the brain is working rapidly, with high levels of hormones, and choosing its words for the tongue to speak.  It is the words, themselves, that matter to us.  Here it is again, with emphasis added.  This is a short statement and it is that a longer statement, or one in which he recognizes that he may be under suspicion would yield us much more information from which to go on.  


"Good morning, it’s not really the outcome we were looking for. But umm… it gives us courage to know  that they're together and they're in a better place. 


When someone says "it's not really...", using the word "really", there is another thought (at least one) that the subject is thinking.  We do not know what he was thinking here, regarding other outcomes, but their death is worded in a strange way. 

If you found your family dead, would you say "this is not the outcome we were looking for"?  I would.  Yet, I must consider why he did not.  What has taken place in the past few years in conversations with family and with law enforcement?

He can only say that it was not "really" the outcome they were looking for, speaking for himself and others (plural). 

Did this come because the possibility of them being found dead was something they had discussed?  If so, it would have entered into this thinking.  Given the length of time that they had been missing, this possible ending would likely have been discussed many times, including with law enforcement. 

The passage of time will impact language.  His confidence or lack of confidence in law enforcement will impact language. 

The word "but" refutes, even if only in comparison, that which preceded it.  Here, the word "but" enters his vocabulary and it is that this "outcome" now gives them "courage";

what courage?

He answers:  "courage to know" something.  Why would he need courage to know something?

He needed courage to know:

1.  That they were together
2.  They they are in a better place.

Why might someone need courage to know that they were together?

The Expected:  Enter into this from the point of the subject being innocent, possessing no guilty knowledge of their disappearance or death.  Listen for what is expected and when you don't hear it, confront the "unexpected" for analysis. 

If your loved ones were missing, would you worry that they were separated?

I would.  

If your loved ones were found dead, would you need courage to believe that they are in a better place?

I would.  

Both thoughts are comforting to the suffering mind and are not indicative of deception. 


I know umm (I talked to?) my father, who is in Texas and my Aunt Carol, and um, it’s been a tough road. 

This may be a broken sentence, indicating missing information.  It is significant that the change from plural to singular has taken place.  It is personal.  It is important.  I do not know if he intended to say something else here.  He would "know" if he talked to his father and his aunt.  These two people are very important to the subject. 

Um, so we would ask that you would give the family members their space and let us go through the grieving process.  


He returns to "we", as speaking for the family.  This is expected.  

"would ask" is weak, and appropriately polite, likely revealing that he does not expect the media to allow them the space to grieve.  He may have made this request, rather than a demand, to not anger the media.  We all recognize how aggressive media can be. 

Is it the aggressiveness of media that he is thinking of?  Listen to him: 

Mm, my family, appreciates all the support and the love that we’ve been shown.  They were a loving family, ...and I know that all of America loves the Mcstays.


That they "were" a loving family is expected, given the passage of time. 
That America "loves", in the present tense, is also appropriate since he recognizes that this is a very large news story.  

thus far, he has spoken the expected. 

 ...We're gonna find this individual, or individuals 


To call the murderer (s) "this individual" is not expected, nor is "individuals", in the plural. 

Why not, "the killers"?  Why not the "murderers"?

The word "this" indicates closeness.  What has caused this word to enter his language?  Does he have an idea of who might have done this?  (that would make the killer "close").  

Why the soft language?  

If he has called them "killers" or other harsher terms in other statements, freely given, it may be that he has used soft language in an almost defeatist view of law enforcement not finding the murderers.  We do not know. 

and everyone want’s to bring them to justice. 

This statement is utterly unnecessary making it very important.  Why would anyone feel the need to report that "everyone" "wants", that is, has a desire, to bring them to justice?  This should not need to be said. 

This causes me to want to ask many questions about it, and it may be, that through the questions, we learn why. It is only when one may not want the killer brought to justice that the need to say such a thing arises.  This, plus the soft language, concerns me.  


..And if it’s the last thing I do 

This is expected, but only if it is completed.  That he does not complete it is concerning. 

"If its the last thing I do, I will find the killer!" is expected.  

He, however, does not say this, and I cannot say it for him.  Is he exasperated with law enforcement?  


I wanna, I just wanna know ... that you know, ... when it’s over. Umm.. that’s all.

This is also concerning but I must learn why it is concerning.  He wants to know "when it's over"...not when justice has been served?  What has been going on with law enforcement, with hopes raised, hopes dashed, etc.  I am not convinced that this is "unexpected."

Has he had many discussions with law enforcement that he led him to believe that they are so incompetent that this nightmare will never end?  It may be.  

We do not have enough statement to conclude guilty knowledge within this statement, but we have enough to need more information.  It may be that he does not possess guilty knowledge and should suspicion arise, he may speak directly to media and issue a reliable denial, but thus far,

I remain concerned but do not draw a conclusion based upon this statement.  Should Michael McStay be asked by media, we would have much more to go on.  

We do not jump to conclusions, and we recognize that the passage of time will have impact upon the family's reaction, especially if they have been frustrated by law enforcement.  

106 comments:

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ALA said...

Peter, thanks for your analysis.


One question;
Why would he be "under duress"?
I looked it up.

Full Definition of DURESS

1
: forcible restraint or restriction
2
: compulsion by threat; specifically : unlawful constraint
See duress defined for English-language learners »
See duress defined for kids »
Examples of DURESS

He gave the information under duress.

Origin of DURESS

Middle English duresse, from Anglo-French duresce hardness, severity, from Latin duritia, from durus
First Known Use: 15th century
Related to DURESS

Synonyms
arm-twisting, coercion, compulsion, constraint, force, pressure


Surely he knew beforehand he would speak and gave his consent. He has very readily been the spokesman for the family, even answering "it's a pleasure" when thanked for appearing on TV. I do not see how he is under duress.


I understand that drawing conclusions isn't something to be taken lightly, but this man sets off all sorts of alarms with me. At first I thought he was just quirky but now I have serious doubts about his demeanor, words, and deeds.

Thanks!!

ALA

Peter Hyatt said...

under the strain of the spotlight?

under the strain of his family's death?

under the strain of guilty knowledge?

It could be anything.

I attempt to put myself in his shoes, as innocent, and go from there.

Peter

Hobnob said...

In October 2009, Joseph McStay excitedly e-mailed a friend about the house he and his wife had purchased in the San Diego suburb of Fallbrook, Calif. He boasted it had a "loft/game room & big yard for kids to go crazy," referring to their rambunctious preschoolers, Gianni and Joe Jr. "Love it."

So when the family seemingly disappeared four months later without telling any relatives, friends or business associates, and their car turned up four days later at the Mexican border, many people who knew them feared the worst.
"My fear is that I'm looking for two adult shallow graves and ... my two nephews' crosses," Joseph's kid brother, Michael, told the Orange County Register a few weeks after the Feb. 4, 2010, disappearance.

The mystery was largely treated as a missing-persons case until this month, after a motorcyclist riding through the desert above Victorville, Calif., came across a weathered skull and called police. Michael's worst fears were realized.

Two shallow graves contained the remains of Joseph, his wife Summer, 4-year-old son Gianni and 3-year-old son Joe Jr. Investigators say they have a lot of work ahead to find the killers, and no predictions as to who they are or why they would kill a whole family.

On Nov. 20, at a vigil where volunteers erected white crosses and released doves, Michael pondered aloud the same questions. "How did four people end up here in the middle of nowhere, over 100 miles from where they live?" he asked.

While no one has the answer, there are many leads, provided by people like Joseph's father, Patrick McStay, who has complained for years that the San Diego Sheriff's Department was not treating the case seriously, and Rick Baker, who traveled the world researching his book, No Goodbyes: The Mysterious Disappearance of the McStay Family.

“Investigators are questioning everybody," Michael McStay tells PEOPLE. "And they should be. We need to find the killer."

http://www.people.com/people/article/0,,20759686,00.html

Ivanna-Anna said...

From Ivanna-Anna

"it’s not really the outcome we were looking for."

I might be said in a case when a loved one has been missing for a long time, and the circumstances indicate they are no longer alive (bank accounts not used etc). Although you don't want to find them dead , you do want to find them, even if it means they are found dead. (For closure, proper burial etc).

I noticed this:
Why does he not deserve space, just the other family members?
"give the family members their space and let us go through the grieving process."

BostonLady said...

I saw the the video of Michael McStay on Eyes For Lies blog and his behavior doesn't match his words. Michael was doing that fake crying, very dramatic, act. No tears, but trying to look as if there were. Also, he does an odd little laugh near the end of his statement that didn't fit.

Hob's posted the statement Michael made back in 2010 and to me it seems like he leaked his guilty knowledge. He said :

"My fear is that I'm looking for two adult shallow graves and ... my two nephews' crosses," Joseph's kid brother, Michael, told the Orange County Register a few weeks after the Feb. 4, 2010, disappearance.

And that is exactly how the family was found. That is a very odd coincidence.

Anonymous said...

http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/Desert-Memorial-Service-for-McStay-Family-232776141.html?_osource=SocialFlowTwt_LABrand

Hobnob said...

Hi Boston it is very odd.

it's made odder by the fact he says adult shallow graves.

Who says adult shallow graves?

NO One

the media will use the term shallow grave, they don't say the body was found in an adult shallow grave or a child shallow grave or even reference the size. it is enough they refer to a shallow grave, we imagine the length and width to be enough to fit the body, shallow tells us it wasn't a deep grave as seen in cemetaries. it could be inches or even covered by brush/leaves/earth, ot could be inches deep or even a couple of feet.

Why does he seem to know they will be found in two adult graves shortly after they vanished?

As the whole family is missing, one would presume either one grave (less effort and easier to conceal, three graves one for each adult and one for the children, maybe even four graves one for each of them, perhaps even two graves one for the adults one for the children.

In each case there would be no need to specify adult or child sized, the grave would be big enough to conceal the bodies.

That he knew there would be two adult graves is telling and indicative perhaps of guilty knowledge.
If he is involved did he specify how the graves were to be?

Did he say who was to be placed where?

Was he present when they were dug?

Was he present when the family were murdered?

Were they murdered on site or elsewhere and then moved to the dump site?

If the above who moved them?

There would be evidence in the graves of fibers from the vehicles they were in , anything they were wrapped in, hairs, fibers etc from whoever placed them in the graves, insects, seeds and plant life and so on.

I would be checking thier house with luminol and any vehicles the family owned including the brother, father etc.

If they were killed elsewhere and then transported, there would be cadaverine in the vehicles (it is detectable by a trained dog 90 mins approx after death) Whereever someone goes they leave a part of themselves behind and take a part of the place away with them.

As it stands i would be polygraphing the whole family especially the brother.

Given the amount of money etc, that seems a good motive to kill the family.

if anyone has more statements from the brother i would appreciate them please.

Jen Ow said...

Hi Peter, thanks for the analysis!

I just wanted to let you know that that transcript is missing an line where he references what LE and 'everybody' wants, (it may be that the clip was edited down). Here is the missing line...

MM says, "We're going to find this individual or individuals...I KNOW THAT THE SHERIFFS, THE FBI, EVERYBODY IN..(he stops his sentence short, self editing) WANTS TO BRING THIS TO JUSTICE..AND IF IT'S THE LAST THING I DO..I WANNA, I JUST WANNA KNOW THAT, YOU KNOW, WHEN ITS OVER. HUH. (He shakes his head, and uses his sleeve to wipe face as he laughs).

Jen Ow said...

Hi Hobs-

I agree with you and everyone else on the strangeness of his wording a knowledge of the graves.

I have watched many of his interviews long before the family was found dead and I always thought he knew something more than he was saying. Before they were found dead I thought he may have known more about a possible reason they would take off, like illegal activity or something with his brothers business. However, now that they are confirmed dead, I see his hinky actions in a whole new light!

He is into this up to his eyeballs in my opinion!

Jen Ow said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Jen Ow said...

Here is another statement transcribed from an episode of Nancy Grace , where Michael McStay appeared before the family was found. Notice how he avoids answering some of her questions and alibi builds.

NG: With me right now special guest Michael McStay, joining us out of Irvine CA, he is the brother of Joseph McStay, Michael thank you for being with us.

MM: It's my pleasure, thanks for having me.

NG: Yes sir, lets go over what we know, back me up to Feb 4 2010, and tell me what happened just prior to that.

MM:  Uh, prior to that everything was normal, but on Feb 4th, uh, pretty much everything stopped, cell phones stopped, Summer got a couple of texts on I think the 6th, but if it...the paper trail, the, the banking transactions, everything pretty much stopped, and then all of the sudden the vehicle shows up, um, on Monday the 8th.

NG: Micheal where were they going that evening around 7:30 pm?

MM: We don't know.

NG: Tell me, what can you tell us about trying to reach them, I understand that you called and called the home?

MM: Um, Joey and I normally talk on, on Fridays. Uh, we usually talk once or twice a week he would call me. Umm, it was actually on the 9th that, um, I was talking to my father he got an email from someone who oversees Joey's website, um, and uh, they said, you know, basically, they couldn't get ahold of Joey, and uh, so, this is 'webDan'. Dan basically calls San Diego Sheriffs Dept, has um the sheriffs Dept do a welfare check on Wed the 10th.  And, you know basically on the fourt, uh 13th, I go down and crawl through a window, and I'm lookin for phone numbers or you know, that's  kinda what got it goin..

NG: So when the police went there they couldn't determine whether anything was wrong, then you go there the next day, crawl through a window, and what did you find inside Michael?

MM:  Uh, I saw the house in disarray, but I knew they were doing a remodel, uh the cupboards were out, they were on top of the counters, umm, I didn't catch the eggs, I didn't catch her glasses, I didn't catch the popcorn on the sofa, I, uh, I  don't have crime fighting eyes, I missed all that stuff.

john said...

I posted this under a OT a few articles back.

@ 3:16 he says "And its the last thing i wonna (Pause) Here we see him smile, he then pushes his to tongue into the right side of his cheek.

When the tongue in cheek is used in the setting of a lie, this highly specific move helps in the suppression of a smile, blushing or laughter. Thus in the context of a lie it has significant overlap with the phenomenon of "Duping Delight".

We see this in what happens next.

He says "I just wonna know that, you know when its over". Here we see the suppressed laughter as stated above. Added to this that when he puts his head down to hide his face, watch when he comes back up @ 3:27 to 3:28, there is a very notable smile. You may have to watch it a few times to catch it but it is there. Pause from frame to frame.

He is hiding something, what it is we don't know. But as Hobs said, i would have him take a Polly.

http://www.hlntv.com/video/2013/11/15/brother-missing-mcstay-family-speaks-presser-bodies-found

J Gil said...

Peter,
I found your analysis to be really interesting and I as well think there are quite a few red flags. Was wondering if you could check out the 2 videos below and give your opinion. I personally find everything about them to be very odd. The way he almost insists that they find the SD cards so he can see what's on them and the way he gives the neighbor his number and asks that they contact him directly. IMO it would of made more sense to either give the neighbor the detectives info or give the neighbors info to the detectives. I felt bad for summers brother (the guy with the long dark hair) after watching the video, it's as if he's not even given the opportunity to speak and his comments and suggestions are ignored.

http://youtu.be/GbvPKlj_a5M

http://youtu.be/3fZVdnwOb9c

Jen Ow said...

Statements from Michael Mcstay at Desert Memorial, from link posted by Anon above:

Reporter opens by saying that residents of Victorville, who did not know the family, have erected four white crosses to mark the spot where the family was found. The reporter then states that he spoke to Michael McStay who expressed his appreciation not just for the gesture, but so that family members can identify and visit the site.

Micheal McStay: "I haven't been here, so I wanted to see the site."

(He feels the need to state that he has never been to the site of his brother and his families makeshift burial plot.)

MM: "And thats why I'm starting to get angry, that...that, they were snuffed out at such an early age, and they didn't deserve this, they were innocent".

(His brother, sister-in-law, and two nephews have been murdered and dumped into the desert, but he is just 'starting to get angry'? He also states that the kids who were 'snuffed out at an early age' didn't deserve this (close) and were innocent. Does he feel that his brother and Summmer did? Surely NONE of them deserved such a horrible fate!)

MM: "What was hidden is brought out into the light, it's out in the open, and now we can go catch the individuals who did this."

(This is the second time he has referenced 'the individuals who did this', which is soft language toward the killer, and the act that was comitted. He also uses 'this', which is close, to describe the horrible murder of his loved ones. I find it most significant that he uses the word 'catch' in reference to the perpetrator. 'Catch' would imply to me that the perpetrator is known, and the next step is to 'catch' them. If the perpetrator is NOT known then the next step is to find out what happened, and who did this...not catch them.)

Anonymous said...

Summer's brother seems more normal and less hyped-up. With MM It's more of an open house atmosphere where he rules the roost rather than a somber walk-through of an empty house full of questions.

Another red flag is when asked previously if he thought Summer had taken the kids and fled he kept repeating "I hope not", which to me is an underhanded response...

I also think the popcorn on the sofa would be hard to miss.

An almost cheerful photo was taken on the site with the crosses.

Jen Ow points out:

Micheal McStay: "I haven't been here, so I wanted to see the site."


(He feels the need to state that he has never been to the site of his brother and his families makeshift burial plot.)

This is HUGE.


The nonverbal clues in the presser pop out also. He needs to take a poly.

sidewalk super said...


following the money trail,
who would benefit from the 4 deaths, what business was Joseph in?

Michael presents like Patsy Ramsey, cold, odd wording, very impersonal.

Anonymous said...

it’s not really the outcome we were looking for.-----



Maybe the perps were hoping the remains would never be found.

A possibility anyway

Jen Ow said...

Hi J Gil-

I just watched the videos you linked, and MM basically spells it out...'someone' comfortable to them lured them out of their home with a ruse, or to borrow money. He is overtalking Summer's brother the whole time, and I notice that when MM states that HE will take all the sd cards and back them up, her brother jumps in and says that his mother needs to be in on the process of going through the pics as well. Throughout both videos MM seems to be 'running the show', and bouncing off the walls, rather than bouncing ideas off the others.

It's also very strange that people with over $100k in their checking account would be sleeping on an air mattess , along with their kids, and doing cosmetic remodeling like painting when neither they, nor their sons have a bed to sleep in at night! The investigator also remarks that none of their clothes are there, and MM makes a comment about how he knows there was an issue with a 'pod', (moving container). Very strange how much MM knows about what was going on in their home...photos she was taking, their banking, their moving, their double stroller, their surf boards, etc.

Most notably MM states that he is taking tthings out of the home, and when Summer's brother objects, he says that LE told him this was not a crime scene, and he can remove anything he wants! Why would he take ANYTHING out of their home unless he KNOWS they are not coming home? If he believes they were abducted then why is he altering the scene?

Jen Ow said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Carnival Barker said...

Peter, was this really your analysis? These don't sound like your words.

Maybe said...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2511190/Mystery-digger-track-marks-McStay-family-grave-site.html

john said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
john said...

April 10 2013.

FBI takes over search for missing McStay family.

Snipped:

Relatives have said the disappearance was extremely out of character. Joseph’s brother Michael McStay told HLN’s Nancy Grace in 2011 that he did not believe Joseph would have just taken his wife and children out of the country without ever notifying anyone in the family about it.

“He`s not that type of person,” McStay said.

“I know that my mom and I are happy with SDSD and are optimistic with the resources that the FBI brings to the table,” Michael McStay said in the statement. “We simply want to know what happened to our missing loved ones. We are grateful that there has been so much love and support the past 3 years.”

http://www.hlntv.com/article/2013/04/10/fbi-takes-over-search-missing-mcstay-family

.................................

EXCLUSIVE: Police investigate mystery 'digger' track marks found at McStay family desert grave site 'left by killer who had local knowledge' as victim's brother insists 'everyone is a suspect'

Snipped:

Police are investigating whether killers 'with local knowledge' used a digger to bury the four bodies of the McStay family in desert graves, MailOnline can reveal today.
Two sets of tell-tale track marks – believed to have been made by a small earth moving vehicle.

Police are looking at the theory that a digger was used after Joseph’s brother Michael visited the site yesterday, spotted the markings and called a detective working on the case.
A police spokeswoman told MailOnline: 'Our investigators would not have used heavy lifting machinery during the excavation for fear of damaging evidence. I am glad to hear Mr McStay contacted us with with this information.'

Michael – who works in construction – believes they were made by a Bobcat-type vehicle. He claims they were too old to have been made during the excavation of the bodies - which was done by hand.
He is also convinced the killers had intimate local knowledge because of the secluded nature of the gruesome grave site - around 100 miles from the family's Fallbrook home.
Michael also said there is a quarry nearby, meaning the use of a digger would not seem out of the ordinary to any witnesses. And there is a shooting range nearby - so gunshots would not have sounded out of place, he said.
The tracks at the scene also makes Michael think whoever was responsible was not an amateur and knew what they were doing.
Michael said: ‘The two trenches are symmetrical and exactly the same distance apart. We measured the distance between the tracks and I called my friend at a machine hire rental place to ask what kind of machine has tracks 67 inches apart. He said it would be a Bobcat.
‘There is a quarry just up the track from the site so a Bobcat would not raise a red flag. The guy would had to have had a four-wheel truck that could drive a trailer into there.

john said...

Cont..



‘Also there’s a shooting range up the street, so gunshots wouldn’t be out of place. Whoever it was must have known the area.
‘After I’d been up to the site I called one of the detectives working the case and said, ‘look I don’t know if this means anything and I’m sure you guys are on top of things, but I’m in construction and that’s what I saw.’

Speaking to MailOnline, Michael went on to shed more light on the new investigation. He said ‘everyone’ is now a suspect in the murder of his relatives and that even he fully expects to be questioned again.

He is absolutely happy to answer anything thrown at him and will do whatever it takes to finally bring the killers to justice.
Soon after an emotional memorial yesterday in the Mojave Desert, California, which saw four crosses erected on the spot the bodies were found and doves released into the sky, 40-year-old Michael said: ‘The police are going to check everybody and review every aspect of this case.
‘I’m going to be asked the same questions as I was almost four years ago. I’m sure they will take my DNA again as well.
‘Everyone’s a suspect and my attitude is, ‘let’s go, I’m ready’. I’m all for it. I want the police to do absolutely everything they can to catch the people who did this to my family.

They will be re-interviewing everybody. I have already been contacted by friends who have said the police have been in touch. The police are going to go after this thing and until they arrest somebody, I’ve just got to let this play out.

‘The last few days I have been trying to gain my strength because I know this is going to be a long haul. I don’t start fights I finish them and I am in a fight to the end.
‘When I was up at the site I made a promise. I sat there and I put my hand on Summer’s cross, because I know how much of a momma bear she was about protecting her boys and I said, ‘I’m going to see this thing through’.
‘I don’t have to tell my brother that, he already knows, but I wanted to let her know.
‘They are going to catch the people who did this and I am going to stand in front of them in court and look them in the eye. I will be there when they flick the switch. There’s a special place in hell for them.’
While Michael is determined not to be dragged into a quagmire of speculation, his father Patrick has gone on record saying he has a list of three of four potential suspects who he thinks are responsible for the crime.
That is not something Michael is prepared to do. ‘I’m not a professional and I don’t want to go into the case, because law enforcement need to be left to get on with this.
‘I am sure whoever committed this crime will be brought to justice and we will get some closure.’

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2511190/Mystery-digger-track-marks-McStay-family-grave-site.html#ixzz2mDbhM6Dw

john said...

Could this be what Michael McStay is doing?..He does seem to be everywhere every time something happens.

It’s surprising how many killers return not just to the gravesite but to the scene of the crime. And some killers — the more organized or premeditated type — sometimes even inject themselves into the police investigation to provide bogus information. They do it for different reasons. They may want to find out where the investigation is headed or look for cues that it’s progressing along nicely because, naturally, they’re concerned about that.

They may go to the police in order to beat them to the punch, just in case someone may have seen them or provided a description of their car. This way, if their names pop up later, they can come back and say, “Oh, wait a minute, I went to you guys a month ago. I was cooperative.”

Anonymous said...

Carnival Barker said...
Peter, was this really your analysis? These don't sound like your words.



I agree CB.
I think maybe he is being very cautious?

I have gleaned more from the comments on this one.

Anonymous said...

I find a couple of things odd in this situation.
1. Michael McStay tells us: "I haven't been there so I wanted to see the site." Yet in another interview he gives all kinds of details about the site and its surroundings. That there is a shooting range nearby.
2. Michael says: I'm sure they will take my DNA again as well. Why would the police need to take another sample of Michaels DNA if they have already done that? Surely with an unsolved case they would still keep this on record? DNA doesn't change…
3. "I sat there and I put my hand on Summer’s cross, because I know how much of a momma bear she was about protecting her boys and I said, ‘I’m going to see this thing through’." I find this statement particularly chilling. How could anyone know what a momma bear someone is about protecting her boys; unless that person has seen her in a situation doing just that.
4. I find it odd that he chose to make a statement after the bodies of the McStays were found. Especially when he was so emotional and the message was more or less to give the family the privacy to grief. Why not let a spokesperson or the police ask the public and media to give the family privacy? The only thing that would be reasonable in that situation was to ask the public if they have seen anything suspicious, however small in that area or neighborhood during the time of their disappearance and murder and report that to the police. But he did not ask that.

Anonymous said...

i think he wants to solve this case himself before the cops do so he can kill the badguys.

Anonymous said...

landscaping = skid loader.
family's SUV at mexican border = killer went home.

was there a landscaping project going on recently (that went bad) that included one of mcstay's fountains?

Jen Ow said...

Hi John-

I think that is EXACTLY what he is doing. He has spelled out every step of the plan! The 'individual' who did this was 'comfortable' to them, they lured them out of the house, they choose that particular spot in the desert because of its proximity to a shooting range and quarry where earth moving equipment wouldn't be out of place, they 'knew the area', had a 4x4 and trailer to transport the digger, etc. (gee, he certainly knows A LOT about the area he has NEVER been to!)

I believe MM knows that his involvement is becoming obvious, so he's trying to confuse the issue, and inject himself further into the investigation, so that he can say, 'You got 90% of your information from me, if I was the killer why would I tell you anything', or something like that.

He is way too specific in his knowledge of the 'individual who did this' motives and actions for me not to suspect him, and his comments about being interviewed as a suspect sound like a challenge to me. Reading his statements about how he 'doesn't start fights, he finishes them', and how he wants LE to 'bring it on', it appears that he has already been accused. Now to see how long it takes him to lawyer up, and shut up after being the constant mouth peice for 4 years!

Shelley said...

The People magazine comment is absolutely concerning.

It is very rare people are found in graves. The fact he said that I think needs to be explored by LE.

But then that may not matter..

Gerry and Kate Mccann left babies alone and no one seems to care. Billie and Shawn had child porn and no ome cares.

I am loosing faith...

shelley said...

The was a waiter at Espinozas resturant in Baja said he is sure the family was there due to noticung the younger childs unusual birth mark. He said the left a map.

but I can not find any more on this. Anyone else heard anything about this?

shelley said...

The was a waiter at Espinozas resturant in Baja said he is sure the family was there due to noticung the younger childs unusual birth mark. He said the left a map.

but I can not find any more on this. Anyone else heard anything about this?

Jen Ow said...

MM: "I’m going to be asked the same questions as I was almost four years ago. I’m sure they will take my DNA again as well."

-I wouldn't expect DNA samples to be taken from the brother of a 'missing family', when the official stance from the FBI/LE was that the family left of their own free will. DNA collection, storage and testing is an expensive process. This indicates that LE had reason to suspect this outcome, AND Michael's involvment enough to take a DNA sample, despite their official stance.

-He says he expects to be asked the 'same questions' again, and anticipates them taking ANOTHER DNA sample. As another poster pointed out, this would be unnecessary. The fact that he mentions both of these topics, (repeated questioning and DNA testing) may show sensitivity, and that they are weighing heavily on his mind.

MM: "Everyone’s a suspect and my attitude is, ‘let’s go, I’m ready’. I’m all for it."

-By saying EVERYONE is a suspect, he is attempting to spread the suspicion/guilt around. I am not a suspect, you are not a suspect...so NO, 'everyone' is not a suspect.

-He then issues a challenge to LE...'let's go.. I'm ready". This is akin to what a boxer would say to an opponent before a fight...'let's go, I'm ready'...bring it.

MM: "I want the police to do absolutely everything they can to catch the people who did this to my family."

-This is a weak statement, with extra words weakening it further. He WANTS the police to do 'ABSOLUTELY EVERYTHING' (hyperbole) they 'CAN' to catch the 'PEOPLE' who did 'THIS' (close). He uses 'absolutely everything' in an attempt to convince, but then qualifies what he wants done by LE saying 'absolutely everything they 'CAN' do'. He refers to the killer as 'people' (another soft term like 'individual).

-His overall assertion makes no sense. If he is not the killer, then the time that LE spends focused on him as a suspect is wasted, and will yield no results toward finding the killer. I am also surprised at how comfortable he appears to be with calling himself a 'suspect'. I would expect an innocent person to refuse to call themselves a 'suspect' in their own family's murder.

Anonymous said...

Another thing that raised a red flag for me was - amongst others - the moment in the YouTube-clip when Mike says: I'm just.. you know what … I'm a concerned brother and I am just doing everything I can.

It made the impression like he was acting and telling himself he played the part of 'the concerned brother'.

sidewalk super said...

One of the internet sites on the disappearance says there were several large withdrawals from Joseph's bank account before the bank closed it, and multiple attempts to withdraw after closure. All of this after the disappearance. I wonder what brother's bank account looked like around that time period.

So, do you think carefully burying 4 bodies in two graves constitutes a "loving gesture" akin to wrapping up in a blanket?

If I were San Diego PD, I would be encouraging brother to hypothesize on a likely theory or two. While I'm polishing my handcuffs.

sidewalk super said...


But, wait, isn't this the San Diego PD who said the nude ex-girl friend of mega bucks heir in Coronado who was found nude, dead, head bashed, rope tying hands in back, but said ex-girlfriend had dragged a chair to a balcony and managed to climb over railing and suicide herself. Yeah..

Anonymous said...

Quoting anonymous....

4. I find it odd that he chose to make a statement after the bodies of the McStays were found. Especially when he was so emotional and the message was more or less to give the family the privacy to grief. Why not let a spokesperson or the police ask the public and media to give the family privacy? The only thing that would be reasonable in that situation was to ask the public if they have seen anything suspicious, however small in that area or neighborhood during the time of their disappearance and murder and report that to the police. But he did not ask that.



I agree.
He has always been more than willing to appear and speak.
That's why I also wondered about the "under duress" part.

Anonymous said...

Shelley, I recently saw a documentary where they mentioned this reported sighting. A member of LE stated that the McStays fingerprints were not found on the map.

I am not sure which video it was, maybe the E Entertainment one.

Anonymous said...

I just want to point out, that the law enforcement entity in both of these cases (McStay and Rebecca Z. in Coronado) was not SDPD but the San Diego Sheriff's Department.

The same group who also concluded Hannah Anderson was "a victim in every way."

sidewalk super said...


doesn't augur well for justice, then, does it?

Anonymous said...

Anonymous 5:40

Thank you for pointing that out.

In both of the other cases, LE has seemed deliberately obtuse, almost unbelievably so.


Anonymous said...

Sidewalk super:

Maybe now that the San Bernardino County law enforcement community is involved, the case will be solved.

Sadly, I agree--SD Sheriff's Dept does not inspire confidence.

Hobnob said...

off topic

A mother faces life imprisonment after confessing she drowned her 15-month-old daughter in the English Channel because the child was 'incompatible' with her love life.

CCTV footage has emerged of Fabienne Kabou, 36, from Senegal, pushing little Adelaide to the coast of Berck sur Mer on November 19.

The next day, Adelaide was found dead, strapped in a pushchair submerged in the water, by a fisherman.

After ten days of searching nationwide, police used DNA from the pram to trace Ms Kabou to the home she shares with a 63-year-old man in Paris, where she was arrested.

Ms Kabou, a philosophy student, told police she took the drastic move after deciding motherhood was 'incompatible' with her love life with Adelaide's father.

The case has sparked outrage as hundreds took to the streets outside the court and on the coast in a White March - a French style of demonstrating against child cruelty.

Ms Kabou had told her boyfriend, a sculptor, that she had handed over the little girl to her grandmother who had agreed to look after her in Senegal, police claim.

On Saturday, Kabou was taken under Police guard to Boulogne sur Mer and questioned for four hours by an examining judge in a closed court session.

The judge placed her under investigation for murder. She was remanded in custody pending her trial.

Her lawyer Fabienne Roy-Nansion who was present during the interrogation said that her client had made a full confession.

In an interview with Le Parisien newspaper the father of Adelaïde said that Fabienne Kabou had been 'a magnificent' mother to her child.

Neighbours of the couple said they were at a loss to understand how the mother of the Adelaïde could have wanted to be rid of her.

Hundreds have taken to the streets in the past couple of days paying homage to the little girl in a White March.

The first White March took place on 1996 in Belgium as people demonstrated against Marc Dutroux, a serial killer and child molester.

Gerard Lopez, the president of the Institute of Victimology and legal expert at the Paris Court of Appeal, told 20minutes.fr: 'First and foremost, she wanted to save her marriage by killing her child.

'This would probably not have changed anything.

'She is not crazy. Her actions were premeditated.

'The investigation will now determine whether the woman was a victim of domestic or psychological violence from her partner.

'Some develop narcissistic and immature behavior at the birth of a child.

'By getting rid of the child, she may have been trying to meet the needs of her boyfriend who wanted more attention.'

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2516409/French-mother-Fabienne-Kabou-tries-drown-baby-daughter-sea.html



shelley said...

Thanks anon for the info on the map.

Anonymous said...

Peter- please analyze the letter from Abigail Hernandez's father.

john said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
john said...

OT..

Statement Analysis on the fly in "I'm A Celebrity Get Me Out Of Here."

In the UK version, some of the camp mates had brought in some extra items that they were not allowed to use (contraband) as the show calls it. They were spotted by the produces and told to hand them in, or there would be consequences for the other camp mates. One of the camp mates took them the the bush telegraph. The celeb that handed them in said "Here you go, this is MOST of it". Ooops. Needless to say, the produces caught on to it and she had to hand over the rest. Lol.

The Brain know's !!

Dam those Marbles.

Anonymous said...

Super, if it is up to the San Diego SO they will close this case pronto and proclaim that Joseph dug the graves, killed his wife and kids and dumped them into the two grave sites, drove his car to the location where it was found, walked back, killed himself, got in his grave and covered himself over. Case closed. To heck with whoever it was who pilfered Joey & Summers' bank account after they died.

This of course, makes as much sense as their calling Rebecca Zs' death a suicide and Hannah Anderson innocent in every way. Both announced by days' end of the first day of their 'investigation'. Case closed.

I'm surprised they haven't already closed the McStay case. But look out, it's coming. To anyone who thinks they might actually care or solve this case, are you kidding? At best they will find a way to blame it all on deceased Joey and his deceased family like they are known to do, including how the car got there.

Anonymous said...

Quoting anonymous....

4. I find it odd that he chose to make a statement after the bodies of the McStays were found. Especially when he was so emotional and the message was more or less to give the family the privacy to grief. Why not let a spokesperson or the police ask the public and media to give the family privacy? The only thing that would be reasonable in that situation was to ask the public if they have seen anything suspicious, however small in that area or neighborhood during the time of their disappearance and murder and report that to the police. But he did not ask that.



I agree.
He has always been more than willing to appear and speak.
That's why I also wondered about the "under duress" part.

Anonymous said...

Peter, I feel you misread the firs sentence. In ´´But it gives us courage to know´´ the ´´it´´ of the subject is ´´to know´´ not ´´the outcome´´.

The ´´it´´ can refer to a subsequent noun or a verb standing as a noun.

Your statement makes no sense. Why would the outcome (they are found dead)give courage? What gives courage, according to McStay, is
a, knowing they´re together and b, knowing they´re in a better place.

I disagree that his statement is expected. The word courage is very out of place here. The appropriate words, collocated to ´gives us´and the subject, would be ´comfort´ or ´consolation´.

Why does McStay need courage?

And I´m afraid second clause is waaaaayyyy too early to be looking for silver linings.

Where is the outrage, the sorrow, the frustration? ´´This individual or individuals´´ is awful polite for someone who brutally murdered your brother, sister in law and little nephews. Hmmmm.


´´my family´´vs ´´they were a family´´ He does not consider his brother and family ´´his´´ family.
He never mentions any of their names and never uses the phrase ´´my brother´´ ´´my nephews´´. No love lost there! The only time he uses the Í´is when he knows something about his father and never in relation to his murdered brother and his family. America loves the McStays????? Bizarre thing to say. He reminds me of Dylan Redwine´s father in his wish to speak for the whole country´s grief instead of his own.

The guy who wrote a book about the missing family was much more emotional and he never even met them!

Really Peter, you don´t find this unexpected?

ps It´s not SA, but the wiping away of non existent tears is rather a bog red flag for me.

He knows more than he´s telling and I don´t think he´s that sorry his brother and family are dead.

Anonymous said...

The laugh at the end and hiding his face in his sleeve, not to hide tears but laughter. Freak.

lady d said...

Could this "news conference" and choosing MM as spokesperson for the family been in the plan?? Perhaps giving him enough room to hang himself? Does make you wonder. IMO....he knows way too much.

Anonymous said...

Interesting that MM says gunshots would not have attracted notice since there is a firing range nearby.

As far as I know authorities haven't said the family was shot.

Is MM revealing that he knows that they were?

Anonymous said...

At the end of the presser where some are saying Michael McSway laughed, IMO, the 'ha' was more of a sarcastic snicker than it was a laugh.

It is his last remark that worries me more. Prior to the last sentence he had sounded very emotional and either in tears or on the verge of tears. How suddenly this changed. In his last comment as he is ending his presser, he suddenly becomes calm and speaks without emotion as if the act was over.

Anonymous said...

Anon 9:37

I agree that it was strange to say that America loves the McStays, especially now that they are confirmed dead.

I think he is trying to promote the brand.
Reportedly there has been lots of money contributed to the website. Also the magazine articles, etc.

I think he is high on the fame and gets in trouble when it goes to his head and the "marbles" pop out.

If the McStays were indeed shot and he knew it without being told by LE; now THAT would be significant.


ecossie possie said...

His narrative Is ridiculous an obviously flawed .
All of America does not love the McStays as someone In America disliked them enough to Slaughter an entire faction off the Family Parents an two Children.
Everyone Is obviously not wanting to see the Killers Murders Or Individual or Individuall brought to Justice .

The perpertrater or perpertraters would clearly desire the opposite outcome.

Anonymous said...

I would go so far as to say that probably a minimum of 90% of Americans have never even heard of the McStays, much less love them.

I have very little doubt that I never would have become aware of them had I not lived in the San Diego area.

Jen Ow said...

Kudos Anon 2:21!

Great catch on the fact that MM seems to already know the method by which his family was murdered! I read that statement over and over, and I was so focused in his knowledge of the area that he claimed to have never been to before, I totally missed the most significant leakage!

Anonymous said...

http://united4ayla.com/for-aylas-sake/
Ayla is missing for almost 2 years.

Anonymous said...

Freedom of speech has no relevance to someone's blog comments. They can moderate how they choose.

Having said that, all the deleted comments I saw were removed by the comment author, not the blog owner.

Carnival Barker said...

-He never mentions any of their names.

-He shows NO outrage at all about the murder of his family, two of whom are young children and at least one of whom was bound.

-I think the "they're in a better place" speech is wayyyy too premature. Usually you say that when you are starting to accept some closure, not when it's JUST beginning, and especially not when the victims were MURDERED. Very John Ramsey-esque.

BostonLady said...

Anonymous said...

I find a couple of things odd in this situation.
1. Michael McStay tells us: "I haven't been there so I wanted to see the site." Yet in another interview he gives all kinds of details about the site and its surroundings. That there is a shooting range nearby.
2. Michael says: I'm sure they will take my DNA again as well. Why would the police need to take another sample of Michaels DNA if they have already done that? Surely with an unsolved case they would still keep this on record? DNA doesn't change…
3. "I sat there and I put my hand on Summer’s cross, because I know how much of a momma bear she was about protecting her boys and I said, ‘I’m going to see this thing through’." I find this statement particularly chilling. How could anyone know what a momma bear someone is about protecting her boys; unless that person has seen her in a situation doing just that.
4. I find it odd that he chose to make a statement after the bodies of the McStays were found. Especially when he was so emotional and the message was more or less to give the family the privacy to grief. Why not let a spokesperson or the police ask the public and media to give the family privacy? The only thing that would be reasonable in that situation was to ask the public if they have seen anything suspicious, however small in that area or neighborhood during the time of their disappearance and murder and report that to the police. But he did not ask that.

December 1, 2013 at 7:18 AM

******

Agree. All of those items jumped out at me.

Also suspect is him saying there is a firing range nearby so no one would hear the gun shots. How does he know they were shot?? Also if Michael is in construction, he would have access to the "digger" needed.

Lastly, why does he "now" say he is in it for the "long run". The bodies have been found. I find that odd. Also he's ready for a fight. Who is he going to fight with? The police when he is re-questioned? When they take his DNA again ? (I am pretty sure if they took the DNA already, they didn't throw it away) And he is definitely spreading the guilt around by including "Everyone" being re-interviewed and that his "friends" have been in touch with the investigators. If Michael is not involved, then all that he appears to be leaking is very very strange.

Suspicious said...

Michael McStay's behavior is extremely odd. Is he minimizing, when he refers to the perp as an "individual"? What about the McStay's second vehicle, now in Michael's possession? Is it known whether or not LE seized and processed this vehicle for evidence? I believe the "decoy" was known to the McStays and the vehicle left at the border was to none other than mislead LE.

Anonymous said...

Weird phrase he said, "flick the switch". Strange if it turns out a blade was used and the gun story he gave was to throw off any fingers pointing toward him. Strange, too, that he conveniently had a measuring device at the white cross ceremony after he suddenly realized there were old tracks to measure. He had said in earlier interviews (prior to bodies found) that the year they went missing was a wet year and there could be much wash out. Interesting that would cross his mind (it was the interview regarding a bridge where a last ping from a cell was registered), there was never any search around that bridge to an adequate degree due to some issue MS never found the fight in him to bother with (some speculate the cell was thrown from that bridge).

Anonymous said...

"MM: Uh, I saw the house in disarray, but I knew they were doing a remodel, uh the cupboards were out, they were on top of the counters, umm, I didn't catch the eggs, I didn't catch her glasses, I didn't catch the popcorn on the sofa, I, uh, I don't have crime fighting eyes, I missed all that stuff."

He went into the house 9 days after they went missing. I wonder if the eggs and fruit on the counter were rotten. If so, surely he would have smelled them?

Peter Hyatt said...

Please understand that I am not saying that the subject didn't do it. I only am saying that this statement does not show deception. Period.

A few questions posed to him would let us know, definitively, whether or not he has guilty knowledge.

It is that simple.

Keep this in mind and send me any statements you have of him. It is time consuming so when there are more than a few people looking, it helps.

Peter

Anonymous said...

Here are some more weird statements by MM:

"They were happy," Mike McStay told HLN's Nancy Grace earlier this month. "And that's part of the mystery."

What if they had been unhappy? How does their happiness have any bearing on what happened to them?

"You see how this is kind of sunken down?" he said. "It gives you a little cover from the road. Somebody had to know the area, had to know you needed a four-wheel drive."

For someone who had never been there before, he sure knows a lot about the area, including whether one needs a four-wheel drive.

Link: http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/20/us/california-family-killed/

Anonymous said...

More statements that strike me as odd:


“You guys [the killer(s]are cowards,” Mike McStay, Joseph McStay’s brother, told CNN at the Victorville memorial site. “And all of America is coming after you. And we’re going to find you. And we're going to prosecute you.”

How does the know the killers are cowards?

And "we're going to prosecute you"? Is he a lawyer or prosecutor? Who is "we"? Trying to align himself with the "good guys"?

And there's that "all of America" again.

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/memorial-erected-mcstay-family-california-article-1.1524425#ixzz2mYFOwENa

Anonymous said...

"MM: Uh, I saw the house in disarray, but I knew they were doing a remodel, uh the cupboards were out, they were on top of the counters, umm, I didn't catch the eggs, I didn't catch her glasses, I didn't catch the popcorn on the sofa, I, uh, I don't have crime fighting eyes, I missed all that stuff."

I personally believe the eggs were put out after the fact to establish a timeline, because yes, they do rot.

Who feeds their kids popcorn and then sets out some eggs at bedtime ?

Anonymous said...

I believe 100% MM is guilty or involved. I also believe he is the one who made reports if seeing the family in various places to make it seemthat they were still alive. He has incriminated himself in his actions and statements.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the analysis. I've wondered about the brother as well. Also in his public statement, he was pretending to hold back tears, it looked forced.

Anonymous said...

Here is a transcript of the most concerning (IMO) of the 3 video clips of the walk-through of the house not quite 1 month after the McStays went missing, about 2 weeks after they were reported missing.

MM = Michael McStay
KA = Kenneth Aranda, Summer's brother
SW = Steph Watts, the cameraman
TM = Tim Miller of Equusearch
UM = an unidentified man in an Equusearch hat who stays out of camera range almost entirely.
NB = Neighbor's babysitter

[Begin video clip]

MM: So we got his —

SW: Just say that again, sorry. Start again.

MM: I ran his credit report. Sorry, TRW. [smiles widely] But I had to get — get my brother. [laughs twice]

SW: So this is —

MM: I mean, I don't mean to laugh, but it's just like, you know what I mean? This is like — I took a, I took a — [quickly turns to the pantry] — in here there was a camera. You know, it's missing. Right here. It was right here. It was her camera. [To KA] Remember all the pictures that she was taking? Her camera was right here. So I asked the detectives, I go, "Hey man, am I going to get in trouble if I take anything?" They said no. I said okay, so I took the SD card out.

KA: You know, there's like, there's like twenty SD cards somewhere around here, you know that.

MM: Really?

KA: Dude. Ever since they were born —

MM: I betcha they're in here. [Moves towards office]

KA: — ever since they were born, she goes crazy. She's been going crazy. [Meaning, taking photos.]

MM: Ohhh, dude.

KA: And I was going to — you were going to ask me about that.

MM: Dude! Well, keep fishing. 'Cause you know what? If we can find them, give them to me, I'll back 'em all up, I'll send you guys a USB thing.

KA: Well, my mom said that we shouldn't go through the stuff until, uh, she —

MM: [interrupting] The detectives just told me this is not a crime scene and I can do whatever I want.

KA: Well, maybe you and your mom and my mom can come in here.

MM: Yeah. Or whatever, dude.

KA: Yeah. Because they need to go sort through all the pictures and stuff.

MM: So those pictures were from the — [Turns abruptly to the closed garage door.] Now look. All the surfboards are here, so they didn't go surfing in Mexico, guys. [Opens the garage door.] And Jonah even told the detectives exactly how many surfboards he has. Okay? Now look here. Is the double stroller here, Ken?

KA: Yeah, the double stroller, the double stroller —

MM: The double stroller is here. They don't go anywhere without the double stroller.

KA: And the kids have two little laptops. When they get in the —

MM: Oh yeah, they have two little, for videos and stuff.

KA: — when they get in the car. My mom says they take them everywhere with them.

SW: So you —

MM: This was not planned, dude.

[continued]

Anonymous said...

[transcript continued]

SW: So the point is, they didn't leave the house with all the stuff, and got —

MM: No.

SW: — abducted somewhere else. They were obviously were removed possibly *from* the house.

MM: Well no, no, they could — no.

KA: They could have been —

MM: Somebody could have said, "Hey man," just like happened before, Chase said, "Oh, my shop got broken into, I can't finish your jobs, I've got thousands of dollars to get out." It could have been, "Hey Joe, I'm coming over, I'm almost there, I'm almost there." He had five calls. 8:39. "Hey, I'm here. Uh, I'll meet you at the bank," or whatever. My brother was going to give him money again. Who knows. It could have been that. I, I, that's — a possibility too. But I can tell you one thing, they got pulled away from the house by somebody that was comfortable to them.

SW: Uh huh.

KA: Because —

SW: There was no struggle.

KA: Yeah, no struggle. How'd they —

MM: And, that's my opinion.

KA: Yeah. [To SW] My sister —

MM: [Talking loudly over KA] And if I'm wrong, if I'm wrong , I'll apologize.

KA: — would have put up a fight.

SW: She would have?

KA: Oh, she would have done something. Somebody would have done something. The neighbors would have heard some screaming.

[TM and UM go into the backyard.]

SW: So the dogs were tied up at the back?

KA: The dogs were just cruising around in the back.

SW: It's a nice house.

KA: Yeah, they just got this new — uh, that countertop is new, the cabinets are new, or newly painted, I think, or new. And they were going to do the floor and the carpet.

SW: So the dogs, they were just out running around in the back?

KA: Yeah, I guess so, uh. Mike's the one who came and checked on the house. I was in Hawaii, and he kept, kept on coming in, and checking on the dogs, and realized they hadn't been home because the dogs were still out, and the neighbor said the dogs had been barking a lot.

[TM and UM come back inside from the backyard.]

SW: So —

KA: I talked, I talked to one of the neighbors yesterday. He said that, uh —

MM: It — was it this guy over here?

KA: And one of the neighbors, they noticed the dog was barking a lot, so one of the other neighbors came and fed the dogs, and stuff.

MM: Oh, is it — ? Okay.

TM: Now, somebody seen the vehicle leave that night. I don't know who. Now, that's what they tell me.

MM: Do you know what they look like?

TM: No, no.

KA: Well the lady two doors down, three doors maybe, she said she called the detective and told him that she remembered that she had seen a big truck, white truck, pull up here.

MM: A white truck.

KA: Yeah —

MM: Chase has a white truck with a gray [top?], it's an old SBC truck.

KA: Well there you go.

MM: It's a Chevy 2500 with a [box truck?] on back.

KA: She said that she called the detective, she said she remembered —

TM: How long ago did she call the detective?

KA: I don't know.

MM: Well which door is it? Let's go talk to her right now.

KA: She's got some kids and stuff.

MM: Oh, two doors down.

KA: The lady with the [inaudible].

MM: Oh.

KA: With all the little kids.

[continued]

Anonymous said...

Transcript continued.

[TM starts up the stairs as MM and KA head outside.]

SW: Tim. Why don't you go with them. Go with them, go back upstairs later. Go. Go with them now to go talk to the neighbor, and uh, we can go upstairs in a minute. There's no f*cking clues in this house. Right?

TM: No.

[TM, SW, UM go outside. Inaudible talk between the brothers and the neighbor's babysitter until SW gets closer with the camera.]

NB: — on television?

KA: Yeah. No, I told them —

MM: That's my brother. I'm looking for one of the neighbors who might have some information. [To KA] Um, what did she look like?

KA: Uh, taller lady, she had a few kids, they were playing out here yesterday, bikes, uh, dark hair...

NB: I wasn't here yesterday, I'm just babysitting today.

KA: Oh, okay.

NB: So I have no idea. Maybe — nobody's home in the house here.

MM: Actually this house, they have a boy and a girl.

SW: Are you babysitting today?

MM: Yeah.

NB: No, it's three kids over here.

SW: I think that's the house, right, because she was sitting right there, yeah. Okay.

NB: [inaudible, gesturing to a house across the street]

MM: Yeah. Yeah, they have a couple as well.

KA: Yeah, it wasn't them.

MM: Yeah. Because I had asked this — actually I had this —

TM: Well does she have the phone number for —

UM: She does, she's the babysitter.

MM: Can I give you my phone number? I'm the brother. This is my family.

NB: Oh? Yeah, sure.

MM: Okay, and uh, can I give you my number to pass along to them so they can call me as soon as possible?

NB: Oh sure. Sure you can, okay?

MM: Anyone got a piece of paper, a business card, a pen?

SW: Well, we can write it down and bring it back over.

MM: I'll bring it to you if you just hang tight.

NB: All right.

TM: Here, write it on the back of one of my business cards.

SW: So Mike, just go over this with me first, quickly. So the lady that lives here, do you believe that they, she saw a white truck?

MM: Listen. Uh...

UM: Don't say anything else about that.

MM: I don't know.

SW: Okay.

MM: I'm just — you know what? I'm a concerned brother, and I'm just doing everything I can. And I'm not slinging any mud, I'm just doing my own thing.

SW: Uh huh.

MM: So, possibly? And if so, I'll pass it along to the detectives and let them do their job.

SW: Exactly.

[end clip]

This video can be viewed here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GbvPKlj_a5M

J Gil said...

Thanks anonymous... I viewed those videos a few months ago and was taken back by MM behavior.. So bizarre

Anonymous said...

Mikey McStay had tears pouring down his cheeks while he was talking.
I watched it on my laptop up close.
He was wiping his tears on his sleeve.
He has despair but also anger toward the killer or killers .
He was not smirking or laughing.
Also his eyes and nose were red from crying.
Mikey has nothing to do with this.

Anonymous said...

The behavior was strange in that video, but actually reading the words, it's stranger.

Hopefully Peter, or some of the others here, will get the time to examine it. He did say it helped to have more people looking at it.

Anonymous said...

I agree Mike was not laughing and looked genuinely upset. I believe he started to make a threat toward the killers and changed his mind. Has anyone even considered he may also have fear of his life from what he knows or suspects?

Anonymous said...

I still say he is behind this crime somehow.

Anonymous said...

MM was utterly concerned with what or whom the neighborhood has seen.

Anonymous said...

I'm curious about how the cops aren't picking up on ALL of this... are they awake? Do we need to start a petition on wethepeople??

Anonymous said...

Interesting that MM wants to talk to the neighbor who saw something so he can "pass it along" to the detectives. But he had just been told by Summer's brother that the neighbors already gave that info to the detectives. He appears to want to know for himself exactly what it was the neighbors saw.

Julee Carpenter said...

The reason MM is so fidgety, overly involved, too side tracked to show sorrow, does not formulate his words properly & why he is so controlling and yet detached is because he's clearly on crystal meth BIG TIME!
Maybe gets it from the cartels. Maybe he's involved maybe not but he's definitely high as hell in the house walk through.

Julee Carpenter said...

Maybe the police have been warned or threatened by said cartels to, back off and let it rest.. Or... Maybe they have been shook up.. Who knows but it might explain why they aren't doing anything at all especially when there is so much guilt & suspicion right in front of us all. Maybe this is why Merritt "struts" and Michael taunts, directs & giggles and why Dan K had those eerie chapters..? Maybe they all know the police have been forced to turn their backs.

Carolina Garcia said...

I had a dream and I saw a woman with a sequence black dress looked like michaels wife also the dream said alex

Anonymous said...

What about that fact that he checked into Victorville not so long before they were found. It shows on his Facebook.

Anonymous said...

I found it strange that no one reported them missing for 11 days.

Anonymous said...

I too, saw Michael actually crying real tears. I would have no idea what so ever, what I might say at a press conference, if this happened to my family. None what so ever. So, I'm sure he said what came to mind. I don't think you rehearse something like this.
I truly thought he looked totally like he was deeply saddened and devastated.

Anonymous said...

This Michael guy might be guilty. I hope they leave no stone unturned with him.

Anonymous said...

I just watched cnn doc on the mcstay murder. My opinion is that this crime was perpetrated by josephs brother and wife- I feel someone phoned them and expressed it as an emergency, hence everyone leaving quickly and together- additionally, I find it disturbing that michael didn't place an emphasis on cking with authorities right away about his missing brother. My conclusion is he was envious of his success and life, father may have favored him - and he wanted to be the sole beneficiary of his parents- could br farfetched, just a gut feeling

Anonymous said...

@Anonymous July 1, 2014 at 10:27 PM: By "perpetrated by josephs brother and wife" I take it that you meant "joseph's brother and the brother's wife" (NOT Joseph's wife).

Anonymous said...

"I just wanna know ... when it’s over" = I'm so tired of acting and faking for such a long time.

Anonymous said...

I read on another story or web blog that Summer had a birthday party planned for that weekend for one of the boys, and Michael even mentioned this at some point after the disappearance. If there was a party planned, then why wait the 11 days to call police, and then say that he thought they were on vacation? He knew they were not on a little impromptu vacay. It was his nephews birthday weekend. Someone else above also mentioned how easy it would have been for him to stage the house. He was the first one in and could have laid out the eggs and popcorn to make it look like they left in some rush, or someone burst into the house and took them. I think he is guilty as hell. Look up Ward Weaver - I live in Oregon and he walked our newscaster right over the dead body of a little girl on television. I was there when they unearthed her from under the cement slab. The way that Michael tries to put himself into the story and media reminds me so much of Ward Weaver and how he put his face in the news and said very telling statements.

7 deadly sins will kill you mikey said...

I pretty much read through the whole main page of comments for this.. and i'm surprised to not see any one person state this evidence as well that points to josephs grimy brother being a main suspect....

Don't you all remember.. back when the family was still freshly missing, the investigators released information stating that on the mcstays family computer, they found google searches of how to cross the mexico border, with children, and lessons on speaking spanish...
The're vehicle parked at the mexico border...
Four people on the video with two small kids, at just the right timing...

Well, now they are found dead, Which as mikey states for us himself, that wasn't the outcome they were looking for, it becomes all too clear, that someone specifically staged it to really seem like they fled to mexico, never to be heard from again, or dead bodies to be found . They staged it, and really didn't expect the bodies to be found, and if not.. that stage.. would still be working quite well actually right.

Obviously he probably didn't kill them himself...but he did find and hire absolute experts to help him carry out the whole operation... he definitely was fully a part of it, hence knowing all details about it... but most importantly...what points to him...
so, for if the bodies were never found.. mikey and his hired killers set up, was pretty genius of a killer mind... and would have worked for as long as no bodies found...

but since they were found, it all starts to fall apart because for one
now we know.. somebody.. and only somebody close, had got on the mcstays family computer.. to make those google searches about crossing the border to make the investigation point to this possibility, and to think that is what happened... it obviously was someone they knew that they left their home for, when they stopped everything they were doing to get in there van and willing go . ... then placing the vehicle at the borderwhen bodies found no where close.. and i believe the professional killers hired a male and female, and two kids, all very similar in first appearance, to go across the border, at just the right timing, so that investigators would actually find survellience video supporting the fleeing to mexico "evidence"... so that everyone and investigators would truly believe this as a possibility .. and eventually having no choice but to leave it at that .

Ya and you get the point im making ..sorry for my very very unorganized writing ... bleh oh ya one more thing i myself recently found odd that oh so great mikey stated on what i believe is to be mickey very own website deidicated to updates in whats happening in the mcstays dissapearance murder blog..
I'm pretty sure it is mikey writey the blogs.. but in the last one, talking about the memorial service for the family now found.. at the end he says this
Your kind words and well-wishes continue to encourage the grieving family members dealing with this tragic loss.

THE GRIEVING FAMILY MEMBERS.. clearly not that states he aint part of the family thats grieving.. without even realizing it.

oh and don't worry people.. the fbi aren't blind... they know exactly whats up... but they are doing exactly what they are suppose to, be patient, and obtain all the evidence they can, so that when they take him in, they have every thing they need to convict him without a single doubt...a mistake often seen in other cases..
mikeys blog ---
www.mcstayfamily.org

Anonymous said...

Wow, today's news caught me in total surprised: Chase Merritt arrested for the murder. ?? I, for one, think he's used as a scapegoat. It is certainly easier to charge someone outside the family with a criminal history than to charge a close family member of the victims. I sincerely hope TRUE justice will be served, and REAL killer(s) be caught. Otherwise, I'd lose hope for humanity. Two simple questions: why is that brother Mike mentioned "two shallow graves" long before they were discovered? why is that Merritt willingly took and passed the polygraph, while the brother never took it?

Anonymous said...

Take a look at the news video at http://abcnews.go.com/US/mystery-mcstay-familys-disappearance-ends-arrest-today/story?id=26761979
Brother Michael McStay wiped his eyes a couple times, yet there was no tear at all. At the end of his statement, there was a smile...
Statement analysis due for this statement made by him.

Unknown said...

He is in construction and could have tape measure in vehicle or just use his own feet. Standard measuring device in construction

Unknown said...

And butter. Where is the butter or oil to cook eggs with. Maybe a pan too. I think eggs were staged

Unknown said...

Or he has adhd as well as a ton of adrenaline from all the activity

Celebutaunt said...

Seems there is a lot of silly feeling people, now. Michael had nothing tho do with it.

Peter Hyatt said...

Celebutaunt,

This is a statement analysis blog. That someone wiped a tear from their eye has no bearing upon deception or truth, and to say so is, itself, "silly."

I don't think there is "a lot of silly feeling people" but just a single, anonymous poster.

Statement Analysis of the suspect's own words indicated:

a. deception
b guilty knowledge

Peter

Peter Hyatt said...

PS;

It is not unusual for a suspect's relative or supporter to post here and at news articles, hoping to influence public opinion.

See:

Baby Ayla case for lots of examples.

See Hailey Dunn case.

See Heather Elvis case, for some of the same, though the nasty tangents were all removed. They sought to blame the victim's loving father, to take view away from the killers, Tammy and her husband.

George Shope said...

It's obvious what all happened and who all is involved!

http://oi68.tinypic.com/wvqtc6.jpg

2 graves + 2 pull-in spots = 2 different trips

With the family's SUV being used both times, before being taken to the border to confuse the scene. So the 2 boys were killed most likely 3 nights after the parents were killed by the brother, Michael, with Summer being killed first in the afternoon and about 30-to-45 minutes after making the purchase at that store, then Joseph was killed shortly after arriving home and Joseph was killed by Michael to hide Michael's involvement in Summer's strangulation death, and Grandma Blake is involved with the little boys deaths, as are OTHER family members. It's the most despicable ending possible!

Once the initial grave was dug and the parents in it, that's when Michael had to kill his Nephews and Michael couldn't do it, so he covered-up the parents in the hole and took the kids home with him and he tried to hide them. Michael's wife, Erin, is technically innocent in the matter, the 5th Amendment protects her, since she did not directly facilitate the boys deaths. She was/is caught-up in an evil family and she couldn't do anything to save the boys, and Michael's biological father in Texas, he knows nothing, except that the police involved are dumb.

Chase Merritt had nothing to do with the family's death, he was being framed from the get-go.

Michael needs to turn himself in and to fully confess his involvement, as well as everyone else's involvement. Erin needs to give the police a complete statement. Then ALL of the McStay family members involved with the 2 little boys deaths should be arrested and the book should be thrown at them.

Michael should be shown compassion, since he did do the right thing with the boys when he took them home with him instead of killing them. That proves Michael isn't evil like his mother.

Grandma Blake is EVIL incarnate. Death-Row awaits her!

Ribbit :)

Gina Marie Mickler said...

I remember reading mike saying that when they had went into the house. Mike and his mom messed up the crime scene. The mom cleaned up the kitchen. I think his family knows more than they are letting on. I've alwaus felt that Mike McStay was involved.