Thursday, November 14, 2013

Statement Analysis: Rob Ford, Class Act

The following is Statement Analysis of Rob Ford's denial about oral sex.  Please be aware of coarse language.  
A reliable denial is simple, and it has three components.  If there are four, it is unreliable, just as if there are two. 
1.  The pronoun "I"
2.  The past tense verb "didn't" or "did not"
3.  The specific allegation answered. 

Therefore, the word "never" is not reliable, and it is only appropriately heard when either joined to a reliable denial (following it) or it is an answer to a question that begins with "ever" within it. 
Also, note the sensitivity when someone feels the need to explain "why" they did (or did not) do something.  It signals that the person anticipated being asked. 
At a press conference this morning, Mayor Rob Ford addressed the accusation that he tried to perform on a female staffer, one of several complaints filed against Ford in court documents released on Wednesday.
Oh, and the last thing was Olivia Gondek, it says it says that I wanted to eat her ******
I’ve never said that in my life to her. I would never do that. I’m happily married. I’ve got more than enough to eat at home. Thank you very much."
Here is the same statement, with analysis.  
Oh, and the last thing was Olivia Gondek, it says it says that I wanted to eat her ******
I’ve never said that in my life to her. I would never do that. I’m happily married. I’ve got more than enough to eat at home. Thank you very much."
The simplest thing to say would have been "I did not do that, nor did I say that, or anything else sexual to her.  I did not want to perform oral sex, and I did not say anything to her about sex."
Instead:

Oh, and the last thing was Olivia Gondek, it says it says that I wanted to eat her ******
Note the embedded words, "I wanted to eat her *****" is a quote of what "it says."  Might someone else use different words to paraphrase?  We are always listening for possible embedded questions.  Does the report actually use these words?  If not, it is likely an embedded confession. 
We seek to learn if one enters into the language of another, or chooses words of his own volition (the free editing process).  Does he deny this?
I’ve never said that in my life to her.
1.  Note that "never" is not to be substituted for "didn't" or "did not."  It is a term that liars feel more at ease with, since it spans so much time.  Lance Armstrong "never" used PEDS, nor did Marion Jones.  Joey Buttafouco "never, ever ever" had sex with Amy Fischer.  
2.  Note the additional words "in my life" are words used to attempt to persuade the listener.  The need to persuade makes a denial weak.  

 I would never do that. I’m happily married. I’ve got more than enough to eat at home. Thank you very much."
Please note that "would never" is future/conditional and avoids the past tense connection that a reliable denial has. 
Note the need to explain why:  "I'm happily married" (which is certainly in doubt now) shows the need to persuade or give reason to not do or say something. 
He then goes on to use an analogy which is crude, increasing the likelihood that the words above are, in fact, an embedded confession.  
The conclusion:  
If he is unable to tell us that he did not do it, we are not permitted to say it for him. 

98 comments:

Anonymous said...

Sorry I can't read the analysis. I am busy vomitting after seeing that guy's ugly mug with the word oral sex written in the sentence under it.

Anonymous said...

OK, I read the analysis. That was interesting about the embedded admission following the word "says"!
This guy is so gross; it seems like his drug of choice is doritos. A little crack cocaine might slim him down some. Very disgusting man and I feel bad for any woman he sexually harrasses!
If you get a chance can you analyze the Abigail Hernandez' father's letter?

Hobnob said...

Everytime he opens his mouth to explain away something he said or did, he digs a bigger hole for himself whilst inserting both feet into his mouth at the same time.

is this athletic ability a requirement for politicians and will it become and olympic sport at some point in the future, perhaps in the gymnastics events.

We could have verbal rhythmic gymanstics gymnatics with the tongue as well as ball, hoop, rope and ribbon.

The open mouth insert foot beam exercises.

The high rings around the truth.

The parallel drinking bars

the high as a kite bar

The assymetric drunk as a skunk bar.

The vault the hooker.


Lucy said...

OT: Peter - Jevon Wameling, father of missing and now confirmed dead Levon Wameling, has recanted his story of the abduction in a letter to local news. In this article is a link to the letter itself: http://www.cnycentral.com/news/story.aspx?id=971390#.UoVaISMo5Ms
Could you please take a look? I believe he is telling the truth about finding his son dead. I think he is conveniently omitting details about how he got that way.

Anonymous said...

catching this guy's lies is like shooting fish in a barrel/ on the other hand ---- always interesting how these principles hold up --


side note -- I want them to lock away amanda knox already!!!!

I've requester Rudy's skype be analysed several times here -- I'll give it a break. but how about Rudy's "german diary"??? he tewlls whole (his) story of night of the murder in this statement ----

elf said...

...it says it says
To me him saying that seems like he's expressing disbelief at what a document says on it or something like that.
Mayor Ford better go buy a van.

Anonymous said...

Too bad so sad Amanda Knox is not going anywhere anytime soon pal.

Anonymous said...

Bulky oh bulky .....buttocks of bulk? MMMM yuk yuk!!!

Anonymous said...

Bulky oh buttocky buttocks??!!! Yuk yuk Mmmmmmm

Anonymous said...

Knoxy is innocent u rascist doppelganger.

Carnival Barker said...

Isn't crack supposed to make you skinny?

My favorite soundbite from him is: "I’m happily married. I’ve got more than enough to eat at home. Thank you very much."

He sure knows how to make a girl swoon, huh? His wife must be so flattered. Hey, if this Mayor thing doesn't work out, I'm sure Hallmark will be banging down his door.

Anonymous said...

Don't "mock"FAT people you rancid mound of hippopotamus dung.

Crack cakes said...

Olivia Gondek- you go girl! Don't let this out-of-control, narcissistic crack-head beat you down. Hold your head high! Hail Olivia Gondek!!!

Crack cakes said...

Peter- please analyze the letter from Abigail Hernandez's dad. I'm worried about this dear girl and want to know if there's hope she's still alive (dad not involved in disappearance).

Anonymous said...

I wonder if they have searched Abby's father's house and property at his 2nd home? It doesnt seem like they have! They would need a warrant for that and I've seen no mention of it being done. How do they know HE is not holding her captive?

Masquerade said...

This is so gross, but here goes.

I agree, and technically, Carnival Barker, he didn't say, so we can't say it for him -  "I’ve got more than enough to eat at home.".

YUCK!

But technically, in his mind, during this non-denial, I think his brain was referring to actual food.

I can't imagine he's happily married at this point. In easing the stress of lying, I'm pretty sure he was referring to food.

Carnival Barker said...


@ Masquerade,

Whenever we see something horrific our brain tries to protect us by denying that what we are seeing is really there. I understand that this imagery may be too disturbing to believe that it's real, but had I included the quote in its entirety, I think there is no mystery as to what he meant...

“Oh, and the last thing was Olivia Gondek, it says it says that I wanted to eat her ******
“I’ve never said that in my life to her. I would never do that. I’m happily married. I’ve got more than enough to eat at home. Thank you very much."

Lemon said...

I feel sorry for his kids.

Sus said...

I truly wonder how much he's home to be with his wife and kids. His language reeks of being with street litter.

Anonymous said...

OT
Is our justice system broken?
http://www.hlntv.com/video/2013/11/14/jodi-arias-george-zimmerman-casey-anthony-justice

HLN speaks about Ayla's, and Lisa's case as well. No one held responsible.

s said...

Next skeleton for Mr. ford...where are the bodies buried?

Anonymous said...

Peter, I don't get it, why you would post such a nasty quote made by a reprobate crack head, then delete my post when I question you about this.

Aren't there enough battered, abused, raped, murdered and missing women & children to keep your imagination alive, or do you just love this kind of filth?

Again I quote; "you shall know them by the fruit they bear," And another; "put all perverseness away from you." Maybe it's time you take a look at the fruit you are bearing in your own life and those you endeavor to influence?

Anonymous said...

Stop questioning peter if u don't like his administration techniques go back to your brothel u prostate gland exploring homosexual.

paranoid much said...

Ummm-actually you posted your first comment under the other article. It wasn't deleted. I assume your apology will be as passionate as your condemnation.

Local anon in the Hailey Dunn case said...

I agree Lucy. He is coviently omitting
facts. Like the fact that he gave the baby alcoholic drinks and blew marijuana smoke in the baby's face as reported by a friend

elf said...

Your fetish is showing lol

Masquerade said...

Definitely. :(

Masquerade said...

I wonder if this is the coat hangar he was talking about, or if there are more coat hangars in there. :/

Anonymous said...

Paranoid Much @ 11:24; surprise surprise. Yes, if I owe an apology, then I apologize.

Anonymous said...

It looks like the McStay family has been found. http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-victorville-bodies-mcstay-families-20131114,0,5975246.story#axzz2kkHWBiTA

Crack cakes said...

Yes. Good point. I wonder if they've asked him to take a polygraph.

Sella35 said...

@Anon 2:52 pm- do you know if they found the boys yet? Thanks!

dadgum said...

still identifying the boys..but..yeah :(

Anonymous said...

he looks like he eats alot of cakes so I tend to believe him on this one ;)

Sella35 said...

@ Dadgum- Thanks for the info... I will try to research it now that I have more time.

Anonymous said...

I tan hides when I'm friskily enthralled!! my bulky buttocked elfy enchanted with ripples raunch! MMMM mmmmm.m yuk yuk

marietje said...

OT But what do you (anyone) make of the statement in this article by Michael McStay (brother of Joseph) Article dated March 26, 2010 about a month a 3 weeks after the McStays disappeared?
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/mcstay-241230-michael-family.html.

Carnival Barker said...


@Marietje,

I haven't even opened your link yet to see what it says, but I have ALWAYS thought his brother was involved.

Jen Ow said...

Hi marietje-

I couldn't get the link to work, but I am interested to hear more from the brother. He's the one who reported them missing. I'm also interested in what other evidence was found with the bodies.

I caught a few mins of JVM tonight, and she was reporting on the discovery of their remains, and she and Wendy Murphy (I've never been a fan of either of them) both suggested that there was some underlying illicit activity going on with the McStay family, that led to their death. JVM even went as far as to say that McStay ran a decorative fountain business which imported from Mexico, and that he may have been concealing and smuggling drugs across the border.

What are everyone's thoughts and theories about what happened?

Jen Ow said...

Hi Carnival Barker-

I am so glad you said that, I thought it was just me, and I felt kind of bad! I just watched his press conference after the bodies were ID'd, and I was totally suspicious!

I shook it off, and thought he was out of his mind from grief, etc. But he rambled and NEVER directly answered any questions. Then the NG show played a rerun tonight of her interviewing him previously, (before they were found) and he was doing the same thing! He avoided answering her direct questions, but repeatedly went off on tangents about people he suspected and why, the cars and money they left behind, (which he coincidentally has!), etc. He even eluded to the idea that Summer may have killed her husband/family and skipped the country, saying repeatedly..I hope that's not the case. (Which is basically saying he believes that is the case.)

Very strange, especially when he was the one who broke into their home to find them gone, and then reported them missing!

Lemon said...

Best Rob Ford headline from Toronto Sun:

"Foul Meowth: Ford drops p-bomb, city council has kittens"

Carnival Barker said...

@Jen Ow,

The McStay case was never one that I watched closely, just an article or the occasional Dateline here and there, but I remember years ago watching his brother being interviewed and there was something fishy he said about the money that was in his brother's bank account that just didn't sit right with me. I can't even remember exactly what it was, but it made me feel like he had a some big, dark secrets he wasn't telling about the family's disappearance.

Also Known As said...

Ford has been drunk (FYI crack & alcohol often go hand in hand as a crack user has a very high tolerance for alcohol.) and asked to leave functions due to his 'drunken state' (coked up also).

The media, as well as numerous 'civilians', have been aware of Ford's crack and powder cocaine use but the media had no concrete evidence. Until the tape.

Do you know what became of the three men in the picture with Ford that circulated? Two were shot. One is dead, another survived. They were shot in the same incident. The third is incarcerated & refusing to talk to the media. Don't quote me on this but I am almost positive that he was stabbed while incarcerated also.

Coincidence? Well.....police detectives always say there is no such thing. Additionally, Toronto does not have a high murder rate.

Again, there is so much more to the Ford situation. As a resident of Toronto, with acquaintances from all walks of life, I know of what I speak (well....type LOL).

*** I edited and re-posted this comment as I believe that the fate/demise of those young men should be known.

Carnival Barker said...


OT -

Here's a link to Michael McStay's statement at the press conference today. Here we go with a lot of effort looking like he's crying and choked up and wiping tears that aren't there. It gets most bizarre in the last 10-15 seconds when he almost makes himself laugh and he does some awkward bite-his-shoulder move.

Peter, I'll be happy to transcribe it if you are looking to analyze it.

http://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/The-McStay-Family-Mystery-232006551.html

Skeptical said...

Sadly this man could be the poster child for addiction - food, alcohol, drugs, sex and denial.

Skeptical said...

Then there's this little gem produced by a member of the Canadian Opera Company set to Bizet's Carmen.

http://boingboing.net/2013/11/15/rob-ford-the-opera.html#more-268535

Hobnob said...

"What makes me nervous is the four days between the video and the car showing up at the border," said Michael McStay

What a strange thing to say.

Why would the 4 days between the video and the car showing up make him nervous?
Nervous means fearful, scared or afraid, why would he be fearful, scared or afraid?
Surely he would be curious to know what happened during that time, wanting to know where they went , what they did, who they saw or were seen by.
The knowing of the previous could lead to the killersand possibly the involement of others.

Rather than curious he tells he is fearful.
This sounds like something a man with something to hide says, fearful perhaps of what was seen, heard or done by himself.

We have a clear motive since he 'took over the running' of the business.

Where was he during that time? where were people he knew? Who wasn't where they should be or expected to be?

How was the family relationships?
When did they last talk and what about?
The state of the house leads me to suspect a sudden and unexpected departure.

Who were the workmen and did he know them?

I would haul him in along with the workmen for quationing and a poly and see what is revealed.

Jen Ow said...

YES! That's the clip I saw, and I noticed several moments of self editing, and strange expressions. I'll post the transcription from the article for analysis.

Carnival Barker said...


@Hobnob,

Good catch about Michael McStay's nervousness.
In his statement at the press conference at 1:50 I think he slipped up as well when he said, "And we're gonna find this individual -- or individuals." It wouldn't have been so important to me if he didn't make a point of going back and correcting himself.

My alarm ALWAYS sounds when I see someone with tears on their cheeks that just leaves them there. Anyone who wants to make sure you see that they are crying is trying to convince you that they are experiencing an emotion that they really are not. In the beginning he is really making a show of the dramatic pauses and the cracked voice and the wiping away of tears that aren't there several times; however, when he does manage to squeeze ONE drop out, he literally hangs his head and blinks so that it will drop (:35) and then just leaves it there. He does the same thing when he manages to squeeze one out of the other eye..lets it linger long enough for his closeup.
Very telling, in my opinion. I hope Eyes for Lies analyzes this video.

Jen Ow said...

Oops! These are quotes from the Micheal McStay press conference, from the article link posted above. However it is NOT the exact transcript of the press conference. (I thought it was when I copied it, but I noticed some quotes that were left out.) I'll try to get an exact transcript to post.

“It’s not really the outcome we were looking for,” Michael McStay said, fighing back tears. "But it gives us courage to know that they’re together and they’re in a better place.”“It’s been a tough road. We would ask that you give the family members their space and let us go through the grieving process.”

“My family appreciates all the support and the love we’ve been shown,” he said sobbing. “They are a loving family and I know that all of America loves the McStays.” “We’re going to find this individual, or individuals. I know the sheriff’s department, the FBI, everybody wants to bring this to justice. And, if it’s the last thing I do – I just want to know when it’s over,” he added.


Carnival Barker said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Carnival Barker said...

@Jen,

I think the writer did a great job in quoting the most important lines of his statement. Those are the exact ones I was the most uncomfortable with.

"It's not really the outcome we were looking for." SAY WHAT??!!?!? I would think it's not AT ALL the outcome you were looking for.

Jen Ow said...

Hi Hobs-

In his press conference Micheal also said 'it gives us COURAGE, to know that they are together', which struck me as odd.

Courage is associated with a lack of fear, or being emboldened to overcome fear...so it is unexpected that he would associate 'courage' with the idea that his nephews were found murdered with their parents.

Carnival Barker said...


I also found it curious that:

-He never mentions any of their names.

-He shows NO outrage at all about the murder of his family, two of whom are young children and at least one of whom was bound.

-I think the "they're in a better place" speech is wayyyy too premature. Usually you say that when you are starting to accept some closure, not when it's JUST beginning, and especially not when the victims were MURDERED. Very John Ramsey-esque.

-His appearance is alarming. The huge bags under his eyes look more like someone who is under immense stress than someone who is worried about a kidnapping that he wasn't sure even happened. Plus, they've been gone almost four years; I don't think he'd continue to look that haggard this late in the game. That face looks like he was worried about something in the very recent past ... like the past two days.

marietje said...

Carnival Barker and others who were trying the link http://www.ocregister.com/articles/mcstay-241230-michael-family.html.
Or Just Google: Video Shows Missing Family Leaving Home.

Quote from article:

"My fear is that I'm looking for two adult shallow graves and ... my two nephews' crosses," Michael McStay said. "If there's no evidence of foul play at the house, like police said, it doesn't mean there's not a crime scene elsewhere."

From Orange County Register March 26, 2010.
Writer: Brittany Levine blevine@ocregister.com or 949-492-5135.

Jen Ow said...

Hi Carnival Barker-

I agree. Those were the most significant to me as well. (I just wanted to clarify because I called it a transcript, so didn't want anyone to think I posted it incomplete, lol).

I did the same thing when he said that first line, "Not really the outcome we were looking for". I also keyed in on his quick correction of 'individual,...or individuals' (its very obvious in the video that he realized he slipped, and as you said he made a point to back track and correct himself).

His last few sentences really put it over the top for me. He asserts what the sheriff dept, FBI and EVERYBODY wants, which he says is to bring justice. He excludes and seperates himself from those seeking justice, because his next sentence is, "And if its the last thing I do-(cuts off his sentence, self editing, incomplete thought)..."I just want to know when its over".

He began the sentence as a first person declaration, "If it's the last thing I do", but he ended it as a passive bystander, by stating he "just (minimizing) wants to know when it's over". Which surrenders control, participation and responsibility over the resolution.

john said...

“MY family appreciates all the support and the love we’ve been shown,” he said sobbing. “THEY are a loving family and I know that all of America loves the McStays.” “We’re going to find THIS individual, or individuals.

“MY family appreciates all the support and the love we’ve been shown,”

Here we see he takes ownership of his family with the pronoun "MY". This is good.What comes next for me, is, the unexpected.

“THEY are a loving family and I know that all of America loves the McStays."

"THEY"

We see here he uses distancing language with the word "THEY". Now why does he feel the need to distance himself from his family. Is it himself that is doing this, or is he getting the cold shoulder from other family members ?. If so why ?.

“We’re going to find THIS individual, or individuals.

THIS is close.

That is distance.

Here we find him placing himself close to the "individual, or individuals" by using the word "THIS". Why would he place himself close to multiple murders ?

I would expect "“We’re going to find THE individual, or individuals.

Carnival Barker said...

@Jen,

His last sentence was a doozy for sure. He wants to know when what's over?

Well, the mystery of their disappearance is over; whatever suffering they endured before being killed is over; their lives are over; if and when someone is tried/convicted he'll be involved in the trial (as a spectator or otherwise), so he won't need to be notified when the case is over because he'll already know.

So what's left that he "just wants to know when it's over"? The worrying about being arrested and tried for the murder of his brother and his brother's family is the only thing I can come up with.

Peter, where for art thou Statement Analysis?

john said...

To add to the uses of the word "THIS", i found a clip of LE giving a statement just before McStay gives his.

@ 45 secs The officer says " We will continue to use the resources we need to investigate this crime".

Here we see him use the word "THIS" placing himself close to crime. Imo this is expected given HE is the one investigating the crime.

He then goes on to say,and this is why i believe McStays use of the word "THIS" stands out to me.

"And bring (THE) individuals responsible to justice". Not "THIS" like McStay says, but "THE" individuals.


http://www.hlntv.com/video/2013/11/15/brother-missing-mcstay-family-speaks-presser-bodies-found

Jen Ow said...

Hi marietje!

I watched an E! special on the McStay disappearance about a year ago, and a Dateline/48hrs type of show as well. I remember the brother Michael (and his mom) saying that they recognized Summer and the boys on the video, but not him. (Basically eluding that SHE was responsible, discussing her name changes and mental issues). Also on the rerun of the NG interview that was played last night, Michael had eluded to the same thing.

This quote you posted is the first thing I've seen where Michael was saying he believed they were ALL victims of foul play, and it is disturbingly accurate, considering how they were found.

I wonder what other evidence was found with their remains. If there was anything such as crosses with the bodies, or other items of 'comfort'...then that would be very compelling evidence, in light of this quote.

Jen Ow said...

Hey John-

You're good at body language analysis. If you have a min, watch the actual video of his press conference statement, and check out his expression when he says the word 'individual', then corrects to 'or individuals'. (he looks almost panicked to me!)

Also using the word 'individual'(s) to reference the MURDERER of you brother, sister-in-law and your nephews is unexpected to me. In the first days after learning the horrible fate of his family, I expect to hear him refer to the murderer with anger and rage. (As in, 'monster', 'coward', 'murderer', 'baby killer', etc.) I am surprised by his use of the soft, ambiguous, distancing word, 'individual'.

Hobnob said...

'it gives us COURAGE, to know that they are together',

This guy is all over the place.

Courage is the ability and willingness to confront fear, pain, danger, uncertainty, or intimidation.

I would have thought a more suitable word would have been COMFORT to know they are togeather.

"My fear is that I'm looking for two adult shallow graves and ... my two nephews' crosses," Michael McStay said. "If there's no evidence of foul play at the house, like police said, it doesn't mean there's not a crime scene elsewhere."
If this is an accurate quote on that date it is a huge red flag, it is specific, 2 adult graves and 2 nephews crosses, why not one grave or 3 grave or even 4 graves, why a specific 2 (Two sets of bones were found in each of the two shallow graves, around 3ft deep, off a dirt track, close to Interstate 5) How did he know?

If it were gang related they would be either on public display/left in the open, dumped into one mass grave, 2 adults in one and the children in the other or even 4 graves.

It seems to me that whoever murdered them took care to ensure a child was with an adult, the child was not,in effect, left exposed to danger and the inknown.
This indicates caring, I wonder if the bay was with the mom and the older child with the dad? it would make sense to anyone with a family as the mom is seen as the protector of the young, the comforter.

If this is the case it points at someone with a family, someone who knew them, otherwise it would be kill and chuck 'em in the ground with no concern or consideration.
As it stands, an adult 'protecting a child indicates care. I wonder if the bodies particularly the children were covered in some way?

I also wonder if crosses were found, one in each grave?
Again this indicates care and would be expected from someone who knew them.

It takes a hard heart to kill a child, an even harder heart to kill two.

Why were they killed?

Often the adults are killed and the children left alive, parental instinct is hard to shut down especially given their ages.
Why were they killed in this case. What was different?

The obvious reason is they would recognise the killer and talk, yet we have cases where the children are left alive to testify because they are children, they are innocent.

The next thing that springs to mind is a will.
If there is a will, then the children would inherit, if money is the motive then live children who would inherit makes killing the parents redundant unless the killer takes on said children, however if the children saw who took their parents away or witnessed the murder, they will talk and said killer dies in prison, risking everything for nothing.

Therefore the children have to die with the parents so the assets are then divided up according to state law and who is living and realted in what way.
If no will then whatever laws apply in such a situation will occur and killer gets the money free and easy.

If this was a grudge killing then usually the source of the grudge is killed and the rest of the family left alive. If it were a grudge the family, neighbors, friends etc would know about it.

Has the brother been questioned and polygraphed and what was the result?
If not why not?
Would he take a polygraph now?

Jen Ow said...

@Carnival,

Good catch, he doesn't say any of their names!

He also doesn't speak for himself. Nearly everything he says is 'WE", "US", "OUR", etc. Even when he says 'it's been a rough road', he is refering to his conversation with his dad/aunt (which was left out of the quote).

The few times that he does use 'I', he weakens it. Saying,

"I KNOW, the sheriff...",
"I KNOW all of America...",
"I JUST want to know...."

Lots of distancing, and sensitivity!

Carnival Barker said...


Hobs,

Excellent points! Not only the "two" shallow graves, but two shallow adult graves. Who says "shallow adult grave"?

marietje said...

Hobs/Barker
Again Michael McStay says, "My fear is that I am looking for two adult shallow graves and my nephews' crosses." He FEARS. And what a strange thing to pull out of the blue about crosses. I think the police are just letting him talk. He was the first one to go through their house after they disappeared. The first one to be notified of their deaths. (Not Summer's mom or Patrick McStay) And this strange news conference! He's the one who talked about their cell phones (old and new). Is it possible he accessed their computer account before they went missing and planted the search for details on taking children to Mexico?

Hobnob said...

Carnival Barker said...


Hobs,

Excellent points! Not only the "two" shallow graves, but two shallow adult graves. Who says "shallow adult grave"?


Exactly, you win a cookie.

Ignore the missing bite, i have to check it hasn't gone stale.

Anonymous said...

"Please be aware of course language." No, it is filthy vulgar language, which you should not be repeating.

Skeptical said...

Could "rough road" be part of the "marbles" spilling forth. Weren't the bodies found by a rough, dirt motorcycle path?

Anonymous said...

MY WORD! Get real. Any grave that is not six feet deep is considered a shallow grave whether it is for an adult or an child.

Some of you swat at a gnat and swallow a camel.

Anonymous said...

ooops!@ " an child = a child....

Jen Ow said...

Hi Hobs-

I thought the same thing. If the burial was in any way 'ceremonial', or anything other than a crude burial, simply to conceal the bodies..then it indicates that this was done by someone who 'cared' (at least in some way).

He said it gives them COURAGE to know they are all together. I also thought that COMFORT was the more appropriate word, (and maybe he just mis-spoke).

But even if you replace 'courage', with 'comfort', his statement is unexpected. He is essentially saying, they are given courage/comfort to know that they are DEAD.. (together, in a beter place). This is not a comforting OR encouraging thought. Although the alternative isn't much better, (kidnapped/trafficked) the reality that the boys are dead, along with their parents is tragic. I wouldn't expect him to 'romanticize' their deaths, especially such brutal murders.

But since I am not to assume his use of courage is a mistake, in what context would the word courage apply? Maybe if all of them being together, means that there is no witness left to implicate you?

I'm not sure if the brother has submitted to a polygraph, but I find his introduction of the topic of the sheriff and FBI wanting to bring JUSTICE (not solve the case), into his reaction statement revealing. It indicates that LE has talked to him, (obviously about justice) which is surprising since the bodies were just found.

Carnival Barker said...


@Skeptical,

You take first prize for today! Excellent catch with the "rough road"!!

Jen Ow said...

EXACTLY! But HE defined it as an ADULT shallow grave!

Carnival Barker said...


@ Anon 12:59,

Thanks for the clarification, but the phrase we find odd is not "shallow grave" but "adult" shallow grave. I've never heard anyone qualify who a shallow grave was for.

Does anyone know if the kids wore crosses around their necks? I'm wondering if the reference to finding the kids' crosses meant that he knew that would be the only thing left should they ever be found.

john said...

firstly is it appropriate for him to start his statement with Good Morning, given the enormity of the situation?.

Second.Hi Jen, here is my take on a few tells of his Body Language.

Throughout his statement it is notable the lack of "Central Forehead Contraction" His tears are real but the lack (CFC)is very telling. A CFC is very often seen with an elevation of the inner (medial) eyebrows, although sometimes this is subtle. A common setting where the central forehead contraction is seen is in the presence of physical or emotional pain - either for oneself or for another person(s) [or animal(s)] via empathy. In these scenarios however, there MUST ALWAYS be a congruent expression of the mouth/lips (e.g. that of pain, sadness, fear, etc.).Although the latter is displayed a few times during his statement, these are very easy to fake. CFCs are not. They appear with true grief and pain.

Here is the kicker for me.

@ 3:16 he says "And its the last thing i wonna (Pause) he pushes his to tongue into the right side of his cheek and mouth.

When the tongue in cheek is used in the setting of a lie, this highly specific move helps in the suppression of a smile, blushing or laughter. Thus in the context of a lie it has significant overlap with the phenomenon of "Duping Delight".

We see this in what happens next.

He says "I just wonna know that, you know when its over". BANG, there is the suppressed laughter as stated above. Added to this that when he puts his head down to hide he face, whach when comes back up @ 3:27 to 3:28, there is the duping delight, a very notable smile. You may have to watch it a few times to catch it but it is there. Pause from frame to frame.

He is hiding something.

http://www.hlntv.com/video/2013/11/15/brother-missing-mcstay-family-speaks-presser-bodies-found

Anonymous said...

It is not true that when it is a grudge killing, that the family, friends, neighbors or anyone else would know about it. This would likely be the last case scenario. There have been many cases where no one knew the victim was being threatened or had someone carrying a grudge or vendetta, out to get him/her.

It is also not true that when there is no will, whatever laws apply in such a situation and the killer gets the money.

When a person dies without a will, they die "intestate"; in such case where no will exists, Probate Court appoints a disinterested executor to the estate and all assets are calculated and presented before the court; eventually the probate judge rules that assets are divided equitably between brothers, sisters, mother, father, and including any other children who are still living and wife or husband who may still be living; AFTER horrendous atty fees and costs have been paid to all the 'legal' estate leeches who suck the estate dry for as long as they can, sometimes for years.

In some cases proceeds of an estate have been known to be made to the living children of other heirs who would have been entitled but are deceased at the time of the decedents death.

NO ONE person inherits all of any estate where one dies "intestate" unless there are no other living heirs after the court makes a diligent search of long duration. Just thought you might like to know the repercussions of dying intestate = no will at time of death.

marietje said...

Skeptical - The "rough road" also struck me as peculiar, perhaps a revealing leakage from Michael McStay. And his quote from March 26, 2010 (not quite two months after his brother and family disappeared) about "two adult shallow graves," is akin to the Billie Jean Dunn's phrase, "ugly field." In statement analysis consciousness of guilt. IMO.

john said...

Caveat to my above post on Central Forehead contractions (CFC).Some people may not display these actions if Botox is involved..

john said...

OT Update Erica parsons.

Erica Parsons' adoptive grandfather says he wishes he asked more questions..

http://www.wsoctv.com/news/news/local/erica-parsons-adoptive-grandfather-says-he-wishes-/nbrTJ/

..................................

Man who reported Erica Parsons missing testifies at hearing..

http://www.wsoctv.com/news/news/local/custody-hearing-tuesday-family-missing-erica-parso/nbqGf/

Nic said...

Carnival Barker said...
Isn't crack supposed to make you skinny?

My favorite soundbite from him is: "I’m happily married. I’ve got more than enough to eat at home. Thank you very much."

He sure knows how to make a girl swoon, huh? His wife must be so flattered. Hey, if this Mayor thing doesn't work out, I'm sure Hallmark will be banging down his door.


Most (all?) crack addicts are skinny. I'm thinking he's not addicted to crack but is an alcoholic who probably abuses cocaine.

His wife knows exactly who he is/how he talks. That he can talk like that with a mic pointed at him, uncensored, says it all.

I have no doubt he said what he is accused of saying. I'll also bet that given his general vulgar vernacular, he probably didn't mean it. I believe it was more shock banter directed at someone who knows him/his ways; but anyone listening would be so dumbfounded and offended, they would use it against him the first opportunity they got. And use it they did.

The guy needs an intervention. He is in a death spiral. I wish his friends and family would stop enabling him and **protect** him with some tough love.

As an aside, my husband said that the "plenty to eat at home" comment reminded him of Paul Newman's quote that went "Why eat hamburger, when I can have steak at home."

It's probably what he was trying to convey, but as statement analysis says, we can't say it for him. Instead Ford's quote is out there hitting the international print media fan.

marietje said...

Michael McStay interviewed in this report. Watch what he says at about 27:00 about bodies and at the very end when he talks about not being able to protect his older brother.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_66jh9bxJwI.
P.S. Does anyone know if Michael is also adopted or just Joseph?

Lucy said...

"Anonymous Local anon in the Hailey Dunn case said...
I agree Lucy. He is coviently omitting
facts. Like the fact that he gave the baby alcoholic drinks and blew marijuana smoke in the baby's face as reported by a friend

November 15, 2013 at 11:27 AM"

I missed this. Where did you see this, please?

Anonymous said...

OT
Body of Fla. man who fell from plane likely found

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/11/16/body-of-fla-man-who-fell-from-plane-likely-found/3613629/

Interesting quotes from the pilot:

"I have a door ajar and a passenger that fell down. I am six miles from Tamiami," the pilot said.

The air-traffic controller responded, "You said you have a passenger that fell out of your plane?"

"That's correct, sir," the pilot responded. "He opened the back door and he just fell down the plane."

===

He mentions the door first, not the passenger falling out. He also says he "just" fell. And he uses the phrase "down the plane" which is odd phrasing where I'd expect to see "out of the plane".

marietje said...

McStays featured on "Vanished" with Beth Holloway.
http://vusay.com/yt/6Y3pDQg0nNU.

marietje said...

McStays featured in People Magazine May 30, 2011. Michael talking about graves again at the end. He says, "There's a spot in my heart that died." You have to click on each page to enlarge it.
http://www.people.com/people/archive/article/0,,20498397,00.html.

Anonymous said...

Lucy @ November 16, 2013 at 8:40 PM...re Jevon Warmeling giving baby Levon alcoholic drinks and blowing marijuana smoke in his face...here is the link to the article where this is written:

http://www.cnycentral.com/news/story.aspx?id=971390#.UohUENJJOGO

'A woman who befriended Jevon Wameling before and after the baby disappeared asked not to be identified, but told our Jim Kenyon that Jevon confided in her. She says Jevon told her he would give the baby Loco, an alcoholic drink and blow marijuana in the baby's face to make him go to sleep.'

Ivanna-Anna said...

“I’ve never said that in my life to her."
- what about in other circumstances, such as in his thoughts, in his dreams, his daydreams etc

“I’ve never said that in my life to her ."
- to someone else, then?

"I would never do that."
- not going back for seconds?

"I’m happily married."
- that's an empty statement, added there so our brain would make a connection. He did not say happily married = does not xxx but wants us to think he did.

"I’ve got more than enough to eat at home. Thank you very much."
- I wonder if he does now, after what he's just said.

Lucy said...

Anon @ 12:29am,
Thank you. I read that article, but I must have been half asleep because I missed that paragraph. Levon did have a skull fracture, so maybe it was the combination of the head injury and the alcohol/pot that led to his death. I hope the body was not too decomposed to find out if anything like this was in his system.

marietje said...

One more find on the McStay missing website administered by Michael McStay.
Browse: Home / info, News / “Inside the Caution Tape”


“Inside the Caution Tape”

By admin on January 18, 2013


There’s been a lot of speculation about this case. This venue, that webpage, this side or that side, he said she said.

The Aranda family, my Dad, Joey’s oldest son, my Mom & I have been living this nightmare from day one from “Inside the Caution Tape”. Some people write a book having never met the family. In these tough economic times you gotta do something when your show ends I guess.

Many of you know that my mom was married to Tom Blake from “Tutor & Spunky’s Deli” in Dana Point where Joey and I graduated from Dana Hills High School. Tom is the reason we moved to California from Texas and he still a big part of my life even though Spunky & Tom went their separate way back in 1993. Tom writes for the OC Register, is a columnist for various newspapers and has a few books out as well. Some months back while having lunch with him at the Deli he had suggested I write a book.

I have decided to give it a go and Tom has agreed to help me out.

I really want to thank everyone who has supported our families the last few years in these terribly trying times. Hopefully the case will be resolved before the book comes out so we can have a happy ending.
Be Sociable, Share!
From:http://www.mcstayfamily.org/inside-the-caution-tape.

marietje said...

P.S. There is a Happy Birthday notice for everyone but Summer at the site administered by Michael for the McStays.

marietje said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Carnival Barker said...


Marietje,

Great find. He reminds me of our beloved Hannah Anderson. Every time they open their mouth we strike gold. I've suddenly become intrigued with this case.

Sus said...

Re The McStay Family:
Michael M. most often refers to the missing family as "our case." I find that so impersonal.

I am somewhat suspicious of Michael, especially because of his dealings in the business end after the family disappearance.

But another person, Dan Kavanaugh, was involved in those shady business deals, also. I have often wondered why the police didn't look at DK and MM in this together.

marietje said...

Carnival Barker-I was just thinking the same thing. Michael can barely open his mouth but for both feet!.
Sus-I've seen some references to Dan V. Kavanagh as a salesman for Joseph's fountain business and as a DJ--but mostly as a deplorable person who two and three-time all the women he dated. I see him as almost too lazy to pull this off. But here are some links I've seen.
From Cheaterville.com: http://www.cheaterville.com/?page=cheaters&id=10506.

And facebook under his DJ name
https://www.facebook.com/Giacavelli/photos.
https://www.facebook.com/Giacavelli.

marietje said...

I believe the source for the Giacavelli photos was wrong. This is Dan Kavanagh's "friend." However you can type Dan's name into the friend's list and his name is there. I'm sure he's in some of the many party photo's but I don't have time to look right now. However, that's definitely Dan on the Cheaterville site.

Juli Henry said...

I wonder if this guy ever partied with Marion Barry?

Nic said...

CBC Rob Ford commentary...

'Nuff said.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/why-america-can-t-get-enough-rob-ford-1.2432705


My dear American neighbours:

Judging from your delighted leers and the daily email links you've been kind enough to provide, I guess I'm supposed to be a bit sheepish about Toronto's mayor, and what he's doing to my country's reputation for monotonous, self-effacing reserve.

Well, first of all, my country's reputation is largely an American invention; most of you don't realize it, but we had some pretty darned wacky politicians long before Rob Ford showed up.

Pierre Trudeau, when he was prime minister, once did a saucy pirouette behind the Queen when she was looking the other way.

Back in the 1970s, the mayor of Ottawa jumped into a public fountain in his underwear. Plus we had a premier in Alberta who used to get drunk sometimes and say insulting things about folks in the Eastern provinces and homeless people.

So the staid, rule-abiding Canadian thing is a bum rap.

That said, Rob Ford does appear to have achieved a level of international fame unrivalled by any Canadian since a former prime minister's wife was running around hotel corridors with the Rolling Stones and wearing no underwear at Studio 54.

For years after that, strangers in faraway countries would grin whenever they met a Canadian and say: "Canadian? Ah. Margaret Trudeau."

Now, I suppose, we're going to have to put up with endless imitations of Rob Ford trying to give himself a heart attack.

But embarrassed? Us? As in "Oh. My. God. He's turning us into a LAUGHINGSTOCK?"

Spare me. The only Canadians I know who actually think that are the Torontonians who never shut up about how cosmopolitan their city is.

The reality is that Rob Ford is our ultimate contribution to the big American freak show. You can't get enough of him, and neither can we.

Late-night comics and blogs are feasting. The Wall Street Journal, for heaven's sake, had him on page one. Your TV networks are racing to Toronto for "exclusive" sit-downs with the mayor and his glowering sibling Doug.

The hoser brothers. They are the perfect avatars for modern pop-culture politics.

Move over Kardashians

Now, I know most of you probably think the politico/celebrity freak show is yours alone — Charlie Sheen, Anthony Weiner, Gov. Jesse "The Body" Ventura — American exceptionalism and all that.

But Canadians grow up on American magazines, American news, American movies, and above all, American TV. (We also have the internet.)


Dear Americans, we have internet. We know who the Kardashians are. (Associated Press)

We're the only people on Earth who can pass for Americans. Most of us could vanish into a crowd here.

We know all about the Kardashians, and Honey Boo-Boo, and Snooki. We've had professional wrestling for decades. We've all read about the gun enthusiasts who show up with assault rifles to intimidate meetings of gun-control enthusiasts, or at Obama rallies.

We enjoy reading about your hardline religious conservatives who get caught in public bathrooms trawling for sex, or smoking crystal meth with gigolos. You've had a president who (sort of) got caught trawling for sex in the Oval Office.

Nic said...

...cont'd

Your current president used "a little blow" himself at one time and wrote about it in a book that made him rich. A lot of Canadians read it, and love the guy. Washington, D.C. had a crack-smoking mayor 23 years ago.

So why would it surprise anyone that Canada would eventually produce a Rob Ford?

And why would it surprise anyone that Ford would be resorting to time-tested American political push-backs now that he's cornered?

More tiger's blood

"Socialism is great!" Ford shouted at Toronto's city councillors the other day, as they voted to remove most of his mayoral powers. His brother, meanwhile, is telling everyone with a microphone that it's all a left-wing conspiracy.

Presumably, the Fords are implying that only socialists and lefties object to guzzling liquor at the wheel, bellowing racist slurs, smoking crack with criminals and talking on live TV about performing oral sex.

Making it a left/right issue makes no sense, but could any political counterattack be more American?

Well, yes, in fact, there is another one, and Ford's pulled it out, too. His attackers are all elitists, he told CNN the other night. There are rich elites and there are poor people, and he stands for the poor people.

Except he's rich. And being rich while proclaiming oneself a champion member of the working-class poor is a political tactic invented right here in the U.S.

Rob Ford is in fact our cultural bond, my American friends. He is the living version of the Ambassador Bridge that links our nations. As John Lennon sang, I am he as you are he as you are me and we are all together.

The obvious next step is a one-man show. Charlie Sheen did it, and sold out, after crack-fuelled rants propelled him to the same blinding fame as Ford has now achieved. (Remember? "I am a warlock! I have tiger's blood! I'm winning!")

Ford would have one little problem, though, if he's contemplating a U.S. tour. He's not an American citizen.

And those left-wing socialists at U.S. Customs take a dim view of non-citizens who've admitted what American law terms "moral turpitude."

U.S. Border agents have often barred Canadians who've admitted smoking pot; they've even refused to admit Canadians with medical marijuana certifications.

Mayor Ford might want to read your Immigration and Nationality Act, specifically Sec. 212. (2)(A)(i):

"Any alien convicted of, or who admits having committed, or who admits committing acts … relating to a controlled substance (as defined in section 102 of the Controlled Substances Act (21 U.S.C. 802)), is inadmissible."

That's legalese for anyone who admits to smoking crack. Which of course Mayor Ford has now admitted doing.

I guess he could always perform by satellite. But he'd better get cracking, so to speak.

Because, my American friends, with all due respect, your attention span is rather limited. A month from now, without a doubt, the freak show will have some new feature act.