Friday, March 14, 2014

Poll: John Kerry Sets Deadline for Putin

John Kerry has set a deadline of Monday, March 17th, 2014,  for Vladimir Putin to pull his troops out of the Ukraine.

Is this a strong threat?  Will Putin back down?


Will Putin pull out his troops on Monday?
  
pollcode.com free polls 
Here are his statements.  Do they show a strong threat for action?

“There will be a response of some kind to the referendum itself,” Kerry said. “If there is no sign of any capacity to respond to this issue ... there will be a very serious series of steps on Monday.”
Note that there will be "some kind" of response; and the language then changes to:
"very serious series of steps"
“Our hope is to have Russia join in respecting international law. ... There is no justification, no legality to this referendum that is taking place,” he said. “The hope is that reason will prevail but there is no guarantee of that.”
The word "but" sets up a contrast with that which preceded it.  This contrast is stronger in the words that follow "but", and can, at times, even refute that which preceded it.  There is no guarantee that "reason" will prevail, in his language.  
Sen. Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican and a top critic of President Obama's foreign policy, asked what the administration would do if Russian forces advance farther into the eastern area of Ukraine, and the new government in Kiev asks the U.S. for weapons to fight the Russians.
Kerry responded: “we have contingencies – we are talking through various options that may or may not be available.”
Note that "contingencies" are then "various options" 
Note that they "may or may not" be available.  Everything or anything "may or may not" be available.  This is to water-down, or weaken the language. 
Our hope is not to create hysteria or excessive concern about that at this point in time,” he said. “Our hope is to avoid that, but there's no telling that we can.”
That which is reported in the negative is very important; often more important than that which is in the positive. Note "not to create hysteria" is in the negative.  It is very important. 
U.S. authorities are closely monitoring the number of Russian troops in Crimea, as well as their movements, he said, noting that Moscow is allowed to have a total of 25,000 troops in Crimea.
He said that currently Russia does not have the assets positioned to “march in and take over all of Ukraine but that could change and we recognize that.”
“I've been impressed on how united our European allies are on this… to a person, to a country, they are very, very committed to make sure there is accountability,” he said.
Note that "person" comes before "country" 
Note that the commitment that the "person" and "country" has is sensitive with "very, very committed."  This sensitivity may indicate weakness within the European allies about what Monday's deadline will bring...
Will Putin pull his troops out Monday?


25 comments:

Apple said...

No

Anonymous said...

Boraco Balmer should sack John Kerry.

RedRyder said...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reactions_to_the_2014_Crimean_crisis

This is an interesting read, check out Cuba, Serbia, South Ossetia, and Venuzuela.
Links to many articles. Super for SA practice.

I don't think Putin will back down. He didn't in Georgia, there is no incentive for him/the Russians to do so now. JMO

Sus said...

Yes, they are worried about European allies. That showed up in President Obama's first statement on the crisis.

rob said...

Please tell me we (the US) are not going to try to go to war with Russia. If the majority of the citizens in Crimea want to become Russians, so be it. We can't police this whole planet. We really didn't do any good in Iraq, nor Afganistan.
One thing, I'm positive no one else will join the fight.

Jen Ow said...

No. I highly doubt Putin will remove troops by Monday, but if per chance he does...it won't be due to Kerry's soft pitched 'threat'.

This 'threat' is weak. Threats are not a time for subtle or soft language. If Kerry wanted Putin to take this 'threat' seriously, then he should have stated exactly what was expected of Putin, and exactly what the consequences would be for non-compliance.

Instead, Kerry's threat leaves Putin (and himself/Obama) an obvious 'out', saying:

"There will be a response of SOME KIND to the referendum ITSELF."

This does not define the necessary response to be withdrawl of Russian troops from Crimea. Kerry further comfirms this by saying:

"If there is no SIGN of ANY CAPACITY to respond to this issue ... there will be a very serious series of steps on Monday."

Now the necessary response has been reduced from removal of troops, to "a SIGN of ANY CAPACITY".

What exactly is "a sign of any capacity'? My guess is that just about ANYTHING could be construed to be a 'sign'. (to suit their purposes).

So Mr Kerry, and Obama...how subtle of a SIGN will suffice as any capacity to respond to your whimbling threat?

Continued talks?

Agreeing to keep the current amount of troops in Crimea, but not adding any more?

Or...

ANY undefined nuance of possible future cooperation?




Anonymous said...

I think the US administration has had an irony bypass. Lecturing others on international law and illegal invasions and then refusing to recognize a referendum. A referendum, no less, where all the people choose their rulers. All this in the name of "democracy". Mssrs Kerry and Obalmer, we ain't buying today.

Anonymous said...

http://www.counton2.com/story/24970967/heather-elvis-dad-files-police-report-about-feeling-marked-in-video-red-paint

what is going on??

JoAnn said...

Putin will not back down.
When Kerry's language is analyzed, I realize he is saying the opposite of what a casual listener might think he hears. That is the special gift of a politician.

Anonymous said...

http://www.myhorrynews.com/news/crime/article_8de34c00-aaee-11e3-a72d-0017a43b2370.html

when the door slipped to close on me

elf said...

Are we going to war?

Anonymous said...

Boraco Balmer is a Muslim.

Anonymous said...

I hope he is a Muslim.

Anonymous said...

I hope he is a Muslim.

Anonymous said...

She's a trotski Muslim(boraco balmer).

Eleni said...

Putin will not give up Crimea, not on Monday or any day subsequently. Putin's statements and actions clearly indicate that he is COMMITTED! Furthermore, Putin will not relinquish control of the rest of the Ukraine, no way no how. He may allow for a nominal type of government, but one that is in some major way subservient to Russia. Hopefully, Lavrov will negotiate a cleverly drafted agreement- favorable to the Russians- therby avoiding war.

Anonymous said...

Kerry and obama will force Ukraine to sign long term agreements for gas with Russia. The fix is in to save obamas hide.

Anonymous said...

Boraco Balmer has no soul.

sidewalk super said...

ain't no way either kerry or bho are going to even register as gnat bites on putin's epidermis.


Red Ryder said...

Elf, I don't think any country wants to go down that road with Russia. That's an all in kind if deal and if you look at the language coming from the WH it's non committal at best. Russia did this with Georgia, if they can have the whole of Crimea, why not? (Devil's advocate, this is not my personal position.) That said, we are already at war in Afghanistan (I know, not the same as a world war, but I know men who are overseas in harms way so it's real as can be to them, their families and me.) The idea of a war with Russia is terrifying!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reactions_to_the_2014_Crimean_crisis

This is an interesting read, check out Cuba, Serbia, South Ossetia, and Venuzuela.
Links to many articles. Super for SA practice.

I don't think Putin will back down. He didn't in Georgia, there is no incentive for him/the Russians to do so now. JMO

Red Ryder said...

http://news.msn.com/in-depth/after-crimea-wary-eastern-europe-asks-whos-next

Russia's neighbors know. It didn't stop with Georgia. It won't end with Crimea. Good question, who's next?

Anonymous said...

Boraco Balmer said"we our all Muslims,each of us belongs with the Jihad"September 21st 2001.

Anonymous said...

Slow down,your frenzied.

BostonLady said...

Kerry is not a strong representative to send in for "talks". He doesn't really say anything. Around and around and around he goes with nothing concrete. Putin will not respect him.

Putin used the Olympics in Sochi to help divert attention from his invading the Ukraine.

Lemon said...

Bonus points for "gnat bites on putin's epidermis" :]