Thursday, August 4, 2016

Chess & Statement Analysis

I
n another life, I played chess regularly and loved it.

Due to the busy lifestyle and raising children, I did not have time to play in tournaments to establish a true rating of my play.  When I did play in tournaments, I was surprised at the level of play as well as the physical exertion of uninterrupted concentration.   I understood why so many paid for private chess lessons to improve in a game in which they were never to become professional.  The satisfaction of increase, alone, in their play, drove them.

Lessons are expensive, with an initial consultation at easily more than $100 over the phone or Skype.

In the consultation, the nationally rated expert (for adults) plays a game with the adult student and knows, within this hour, precisely what areas must be studied.  It is, in effect, the "perfect post mortem" of analysis.  He knows what work to prescribe, what challenges need to be met, and what areas are already strong in their foundation.  The instructor analyzes, not the game, but the person, and prescribes the appropriate strategy for improvement.  

The rating system of chess pits one against another and builds statistically on results.  If, for example, a 1200 rated player goes up against a player 200 points higher, the lower player is likely to lose 3 out of 4 games.

At 1400, this chess player, a low level amateur, is likely to beat everyone he or she meets at barbecues, picnics and family outings, with ease.  He is this good at playing people in chess, but he is quite low in the world of tournaments.

The teacher, rated more than 1800 or 2000 ELO points has worked his way through the 1200 and 1400 levels to a degree that when he sees someone at this common level for a good adult player, he will almost instantly recognize weaknesses, misunderstandings, and missed patterns in the 1400 player and can expertly assign the proper mode of study and correction.

He remembers the struggles and knows what to prescribe.  

It's really quite amazing.

Recently, a newly promoted detective, thriving on training in analysis, asked about a seminar in his part of the country.  I wrote to him that it was a good, solid "101" seminar, but its use is best for those who are skeptical of our science, in general.  If it succeeds, it will get his officers to be "bit by the bug" of analysis and detecting deception.

But, I cautioned him, there is the downside.

Without his expert guidance, they will be overconfident, misapply principles due to the over simplicity of the presentation, and bring discredit to the work. 

The at home study course we offer is a complete Statement Analysis course.We offer small monthly tuition payments rather than upfront and the 12 months of support is what will make the difference in your career.  

It is not short blog entries, and once completed it is coupled with a full year of support:  the analyst is never "out there" on his own.

There are many who have completed Statement Analysis Seminars and have a certificate on the wall saying such.

There are far less who are proficient at it, and those that are, are those who are forever learning and honing their skills, studying, practicing, applying it, and practicing more.

It is exciting to solve one's first case, but the downside is the risk that is associated with some of the over-simplyging of principle.

Too often, I have seen it lead to error.

"That" is distancing language; "This" is closer.

But what kind of distance is it?

It is simply geographical?

"I miss that little girl!" is not necessarily a grandmother who has distanced herself, emotionally from her granddaughter.

It may be that her daughter, son-in-law and granddaughter moved out of state.

I find this particularly egregious when 20/20 hindsight is applied and the errors of overly simplifying our work could have, and should have, been avoided. 

Formal training, incessant, strong and encouraging, is the single greatest traction applied for a career in investigation. 

Too often the professional hits a 'ceiling' in his or her work, and does not advance to where the talent should have brought them.  

Advanced training, team analysis and a proper diagnosis of the work is the solution.  

It means batting 1.000 is the goal.  

Or...

no losses, and no draws, in chess.  

19 comments:

PattyCake said...

great article!

Kelley Jordan said...

When I read someone say," this or that". I tend to panic.lol I'm like, which is which and what is what again?? Lol. Thank you Mr Hyatt

~kelley

John mcgowan said...

Update on a previous OT:

Woman claiming to be grandmother of missing Buckeye boy speaks

Full interview:

14:08 seconds

http://www.azfamily.com/clip/12642176/raw-video-grandmother-of-missing-buckeye-speaks-out

BUCKEYE, AZ (KPHO/KTVK) -
A Valley woman, who spoke out on Thursday, claims she is the biological grandmother of Jesse Wilson, the 10-year-old boy who disappeared from his Buckeye home more than two weeks ago.

Cynthia Lauderdale still has possession of a birth certificate of her grandson Jesse and his twin sister, born on March 16, 2006. Authorities confirm that is the same date of birth of missing Jesse Wilson, who also has a twin sister.

Lauderdale claims her grandson, his twin and an older male sibling were taken away from her daughter, their biological mom, because of drug and instability issues.

“I had several contacts with (DCS) and also with the courts. I was going to all of the court hearings with the children, trying to gain custody of them, during the whole process. It was a two-year process. What eventually happened is they said that I couldn't have custody of the children. The last thing the judge said in her chambers was that my credit was not good enough and that's why I couldn't have custody of the children,” said Lauderdale.

Shortly after Jesse was reported missing by his mom Crystal Wilson, authorities confirmed he was, in fact, Wilson’s adoptive son. He was adopted along with his twin sister and their older brother.

Lauderdale believes the state should have never allowed Wilson to adopt the kids and that they should have stayed with family.

“What's going through my mind right now is that I'm pretty sure if he had of stayed with us this wouldn't have happened. This shouldn't have happened with him disappearing. Who knows where he is or what was going on in that household. If he supposedly ran away, there must have been something going on in that household for him to run away. Kids just don't do that. If they're getting the love that they're supposed to, kids don't do that. And my family loves them very much. And I feel if they had of placed them with me they would have gotten all the love because we're blood-related,” said Lauderdale.

The Valley realtor does not want to think about the worst scenario. Until there are more answers, she wants to believe Jesse is somewhere out there, maybe staying with someone. She said she would rather believe he was kidnapped than think something drastic happened to him.

Court documents in dependency cases are sealed and not accessible to the public, so it is impossible to verify the reasons the court did not give Lauderdale custody.

Sources have confirmed that state safety workers have removed Jesse’s twin sister and older brother from Wilson’s home.

Lauderdale did say if for some reason those kids are not returned to Wilson, she plans on launching another fight to gain custody of grandchildren, including Jesse if he is found.

“I do see hope. I believe in God and God told me a long time ago you're going to see your grandkids. You guys are going meet again. We never know when. It's all in his timing, so this is the time,” said Lauderdale.

Jesse was last seen by his mom the night of Sunday, July 17. Wilson called police early Monday morning to report him missing. Police and volunteers have been looking for the boy ever since.

In late July, Wilson made a tearful appeal for Jesse to come home.

"This is your mommy," she said. "No one is mad at you."

[RAW VIDEO: Crystal Wilson's tearful statement]

http://www.azfamily.com/clip/12608911/2016/07/21/raw-video-mother-of-missing-boy-makes-tearful-statement

Jesse is described as black, 4 feet tall, 60 pounds and was last seen wearing a red shirt, shorts, black socks and black shoes.

At this point, police are asking people to use the created tip line (623-349-6411) and email address (bpdtips@buckeyeaz.gov) to submit leads so that they do not get lost online.

Cont..

John mcgowan said...

Link to above:

http://www.azfamily.com/story/32690903/woman-claiming-to-be-grandmother-of-missing-buckeye-boy-speaks

Listen to call mom of missing Buckeye boy made to police



Operator: (OP)

Caller: (C)


OP: Buckeye Police how can i help you?

C: Yes, urm, my son has either climbed out the window which he has done before, or he has (someone says put some shoes on. It's unknown if it's the caller or someone in the background) urm gone out the back door. Urm, back gate.

OP: How old is he?

8 second delay

C: Urm he's ahh urm..he's ten.

OP: Ok, whats your address mam?

C: (redacted) west Davids Lane. And err, gentleman who works this area, he's dealt with him before.

OP: Davis lane you said? You're in Buckeye?

C: Yes

OP: I show you're on twilight trail.

C: Oh, i'm so sorry, I'm so delirious i'm sorry

OP: That's ok i don't have a Davids Way i don't think.

C: Urm, sorry i gave you my old address.

OP: It's ok

C: Could you see if he went to the neighbours again, because he did that last time.

OP: Ok

C: I know i said this before im not trying to repeat this on purpose, Urm the officer that dealt with him before, found him..urmm..on the corner house.

OP: OK

C: We don't like him going to that mans house because urm uses substance.

OP: Alright mam i will send somebody out to help you.

C: Thank you

OP: You're welcome

Call Ends.

http://www.tucsonnewsnow.com/clip/12611188/listen-to-call-mom-of-missing-buckeye-boy-made-to-police

Hey Jude said...


Interesting comments regarding Jesse Wilson in the link here - also there are recent photos of him with long curly hair posted in the comments there. Apparently the mother claimed not to have any photos of him - the police had to ask the school for his yearbook photo, which is a year old, and the one used on the news stories. I reckon she didn't want his photo circulated because he is adopted - she knew the birth family would recognise him, and the grandmother had wanted and fought for custody.

The adoptive mother is responsible for his disappearance, IMO. She called the non-emergency line, stalled - gave the wrong address, didn't even want to say how old he was in the 911 - she began her call by accusing him. She described him In one early story as a 'snack grabber', eating things he was not meant to have because he was intolerant (gluten or lactose, I forgot), whilst elsewhere it said he had no known medical conditions - ? She does not express concern for him, she misses his 'sweet, loving way'. Strange how she sent the dog away. Poor Jesse.

https://www.facebook.com/FOX10Phoenix/photos/a.159765707405318.30411.108924385822784/1075268099188403/?type=3&theater

Hey Jude said...

In the non-911, rather

Hey Jude said...

Peter - if you don't already have it, you might like the 'Play Magnus' app - it's great because you don't have to wait for ages for 'him' to take his turn. He's easy to draw and win against at age five, which is as far as I have got - I only downloaded the app yesterday, though, so I might be able to match or win against him till he's at least a bit older.

I love your blog - you never know what the next post might be about - this reminded me of how I like and miss chess - and that I'd like to be much better at SA, too. :)

http://www.playmagnus.com

Nic said...

o/t

obama-responds-trumps-rigged-election-claims


Q: Can you promise the election will be conducted in a fair way (BO chuckles) and are you worried that comments like his erode the public’s faith in the outcome of the election. And, and if he does win, given that you’ve just declared him unfit, what will you say to the American people?

Obama: Well, a-at the end of the day, it’s the American people’s decision. Uh, I have one vote, I have the same vote you do, I have the same vote that uh, all the voters who are eligible all across the country have. Uh, I’ve offered my opinion but ultimately, it’s it’s the American people’s decision to make, collectively. Uh, and, if somebody wins the election and they are president, then my constitutional responsibility is to peacefully transfer power to that individual and do everything I can to help them succeed. Uh, it-it is, uh, uh I don’t really know where to start on answering this question. Uh, of course the elections will not be rigged. What does that mean? The Federal Government does not run the election process. States, cities, communities all across the country, they’re the ones who set up the voting systems and the voting booths and uh, if Mr. Trump is suggesting that there is a conspiracy theory, that is uh, being propagated across the country, including like places like Texas, uh, uh where typically it’s not Democrats who are in charge of voting booths, um that’s ridiculous, that doesn’t make any sense and I don’t think that anybody would take that seriously.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/video/obama-responds-trumps-rigged-election-claims-41129206

_____________

If the Democrats would fix their own primary, imo, it's isn't much of a leap to think they would conspire to "rig" voting in their own favour. Weren't boxes of votes found in closets after the first Bush election? Rhetorical.

The Establishment doesn't just live in the Democrat party, they are alive and well in the Republican party, too. Take Meg Whitman for instance. She comes out and publicly broadcasts that she will support Clinton; but she doesn't have the nerve to go all the way and "cross the floor" (defect) to the Democratic party or declare herself an Independent and suffer the wrath of the Republican voter by not being voted for at all. Instead she would rather be a two-faced political opportunist and "take" (Republican votes) which don't belong to her as she undermines her own party leader.

No wonder the American voter is fed up and does not trust "the system".

Interesting times.

Nic said...

Did you catch BO's facial expression when he talked about Texas?

Here's a conspiracy theory for everyone: Party lines "blur" when "folks" work together for a common good.

If I was a Republican voter, eligible to vote in this American election, and my candidate was someone like Meg Whitman, or any other Republican who came out against Donald Trump who was running in my area? I would vote Independent.

jmo

Nic said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
MARY ANN said...

Nic,

what can I say - Meg Whitman actually ran for governor of California a few years back and during the primary it came out that she hadn't voted in an election in over 20 years but she thought she was qualified to be governor. It also came out she had a bunch of illegals working for her personally so her going over to Hillary is no great loss. She's a RINO (Republican in Name Only)and will go any way the wind blows.

Voter ID laws are being struck down all around the country so anyone can vote anywhere as many times as they want. We've already had instances of people being loaded up on buses and taken around different precints, military ballots "magically disappearing" because they tend to vote republican, black panthers outside polling places in Pennsylvania to discourage any white voters so I cringe to think of the shenanigans and outright voter fraud that is possible during this election. They keep saying it's racist to require a photo ID to vote but you have produce one if you want to fly, get a job, drive a car - it should be a requirement to vote. As for the polling places as far as I know it's all volunteer and although they should have all parties represented, I don't think they do - at least not in California where it's been pretty much been a one party rule most of the time I've lived here.

Me2l said...

Peter said:

"That" is distancing language; "This" is closer.

But what kind of distance is it?

It is simply geographical?

"I miss that little girl!" is not necessarily a grandmother who has distanced herself, emotionally from her granddaughter.

It may be that her daughter, son-in-law and granddaughter moved out of state.


***************************

So many of us have so much yet to learn....every commenter in these blogs, in fact, goes off the deep end more often than not.

The chess correlation is on point! Excellent.



Anonymous said...

Me2l said

"So many of us have so much yet to learn"....

That's for damn sure. You in particular.

Me2l said...

Yep. Me for sure, but I know it, and I own it. I wish more of you people would recognize your SA shortcomings and try to learn how to avoid the repeated mistakes.

Lily said...

Nic, Snopes has an article about those statistics.

2012 Voter Fraud
A list of instances supposedly proving voter fraud in the 2012 U.S. presidential election only demonstrates that some people are really bad at math.

http://www.snopes.com/politics/ballot/2012fraud.asp

Nic said...

Thank you, Lily. I'll delete my post.

Nic said...

Mary Ann,

I was reading up on voter ID in the US (Sparta specifically) and how photo ID was allegedly being used to deter/intimidate blacks from voting. i.e., sheriff deputies going door-to-door with subpoenas demanding black voters appear in court to prove their identity or else their name would be removed from the voter list. No white voters had been subpoenaed. You would think the very act of a hand-delivered subpoena would be proof in of itself. But then [they] turn around and close driver's licence offices as "cost savings" measure, making it difficult to get photo ID at all.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/01/us/critics-see-efforts-to-purge-minorities-from-voter-rolls-in-new-elections-rules.html?_r=0

Now I don't know what to think about voter "ID".

Me2l said...

So many lies and distortions pass for truth in the political arena, but people pick and choose which lie appeals to their political leanings. Many false statements are repeated so frequently that they are accepted as truth with no research whatsoever.

It's very partisan.

Anonymous said...

Me2l keeps spreading lies and distortions. Time for the spam folder with this one. Thanks!