Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Analysis and Entertainment

Readers can find themselves frustrated with analysis as there are some inherent struggles that will exist; some remedial, but others will continue. 

I.  First, there is the "Mickey Mouse Analysis" that I label analysis that is entertaining, but not terribly difficult.  This is something that readers love to see, particularly casual readers.  It is accurate in terms of detecting deception, and often in a news case that has caught attention, making it 

"Just tell us:  is she lying or not?" is the common denominator.  They are many books that tell you you can become an instant expert lie detector and they are entertaining, but the over simplifying of principle will lead to error.  Even good analysis can have an entertainment value but there are limits.  

What is not understood is that the analyst should not go beyond the analysis. 

There are statements in which no strong conclusion is presented and the analyst should not make the conclusion that the statement, itself, refuses to make.  

This bothers people who, by this, may be led into the "quick fix" sales pitch.  

Errors come when we are not cautious.  

One such error was in a case of a missing child in which I indicated the father for deception regarding his daughter's disappearance.  Although the analysis was correct, qualification should have been added because  the father did not kill his daughter; he was passed out (substance abuse) allowing her to wander off.  

Another example is that is Leanne Bearden.  The statements made by the husband showed distancing language while she was "missing."  The distancing language he used was due to withholding information from the public who was searching, in that he knew she was suicidal.  The ethics of this can be discussed by others, but the analyst should not go beyond the statement, no matter how 'entertaining' it may be to read.  That is best left for entertainers, Facebook "psychics" and emboldened "anonymous" posters.  

If we are not "demanded" by the statement to conclusion, I cannot make a conclusion.   

Secondly, simplification is sometimes the only way to explain advanced analysis to the untrained.  

What analysts conclude and work with one another, can be very different than what the public reads or hears.  My work in the McCann case is, in my estimation in this category.  What was published is accurate, but not terribly deep nor or challenging, but it is interesting, which is entertaining and rather easy to explain.  There are portions that are not published here, but if submitted to law enforcement, will be  included.  This often addresses content and psycho-linguistic profile.  

Third, if there is insufficient information on a case, I cannot analyze. 

 A good example is that of Sherri Papini.  

This is a fascinating case and I could write articles speculating about what may have really happened, as well as motives, but I think this is unfair to readers because they hold to an expectation that I will have a strong conclusion as I do in "deception indicated" and "veracity indicated" cases.  I am aware that readers are counting on accuracy here and even should I speculate and write, from the beginning, "this is speculation", it can too easily be seen as actual statement analysis, and not impression, guess work, or opinion.  

I have refrained from writing about the case other than the clear statements that have emerged, including the letter offering a 'reward.'  

I have yet to see a good news article where there was not heavy editing, which would only increase the possibility of error.  

For training in your home or if you wish to host a seminar, please contact us through www.hyattanalysis.com for opportunities. 

The training in your home for law enforcement, investigators, journalists, bloggers, human resources, therapists, and other professionals and it is thorough.  

It includes 12 months of ongoing support.  The expectation is a dedication of at least 6 months of study.  

Without correction, reproof and team analysis, the path to accuracy is littered with the error of "guess work."

We establish a foundation for the professional, whether it be for private corporations or HIDTA intensive training, the detecting of deception must be at or near 100% accuracy.  

Where are those who have been trained at home?

USA
Canada
England
Ireland
Scotland
Germany
Switzerland
Bosnia
South Africa
Australia

Some of the professions:  

USA:  Federal, State, local law enforcement, military, private attorneys, medial professionals, therapists, journalists, bloggers, sales professionals, insurance, students, human resources, independent business owners, security...


38 comments:

Patty Cake said...

I became obsessed with your blog when Alya went missing.
I have been here ever since! If I forget to check the blog I get all weirded out!
You -Peter, are a hero in my eyes!
Love you!

Patty Cake said...

Ooooh I got the first comment- yay!

Esme Phe said...

I'm thinking about taking this course. I'll see if my interest in SA keeps waxing.

Thank you for the lessons, Peter.

Nic said...

On topic... :0)

https://soundcloud.com/user-212797670/poiat
Pence on Assange Tweets

Laura Ingraham: Julian Assange, of course the Wikileaks’ founder, has Tweeted out two fairly controversial, incendiary things today. He said that Clinton stated privately this month that she is quietly pushing for a Pence takeover. She stated that Pence is predictable, hence defeatable. And they quote two uh sources, uh, intelligence community sources, who didn't say that you agree with this takeover but that intelligence community officials close to Pence stated privately this month, that they’re planning on a Pence takeover. What’s your reaction to that?

VP-P: "I would find that, all of that dialogue to be absurd and frankly offensive," It is the greatest honor of my life to serve shoulder-to-shoulder with the 45th President of the United States. And um, to see his leadership every day, to see the compassion that he has for the American people every day. I'd, I'd, I'd just I would dismiss that uh, out of hand and tell you that um-I'm-um-I just, uh, I-I-I'm so, I'm so excited about the progress that we've made strengthening this country, protecting this country, reviving uh this country's economy and uh, all credit goes to President Donald Trump."
_______________

I wish we had access to more than bold and italics.

LC said...

I would like to be able to reply directly to a particular comment.
(but I didn't realize bold and italics were available, either!)

Nic said...

Expected: What you're describing is seditious conspiracy! Donald J. Trump was democratically elected as the 45th President of the United States. If what you're saying is true, there is an insurrection in our administration. ...

LI was clear [they] didn't say VP-Pence agreed [with their (alleged) plan].

shoulder-to-shoulder [with] who?

jmo

happyuk said...

Hi Nic thanks for posting very interesting.

Anonymous said...

Papini’s husband, Keith Papini did speak about the case early on, saying wife Sherri was masked or her assailants were masked at any given time.

Is he suggesting that the kidnappers left Sherri unmasked but put on masks themselves at some points in the ordeal? Is that a little unusual?

Nic said...

@happyuk

IMO it sounds like Pence is "counting".

Ulla said...

OT

Delphi case, Abby and Libby double murder

Here's the quote from the police chief.

“I think people are smart enough in our community to draw their own conclusions about what they should feel and shouldn’t feel,” Delphi Police Chief Steve Mullin replied. “Our people are very smart. They are a very good community and they are very strong. And they are able to draw their own conclusions about this whole situation I think quite successfully.”

How can people draw conclusions, if no one knows what happened?

Alexandra said...

I just read about the Libby and Abby case per request of the poster.

Very weird. Why is the police chief making such strange statements? The first things that are coming to mind is that either 1) the sheriff did it or 2) is there something gruesome about the find he doesn't want the community to know?

Why is he withholding info even on WHO found the bodies?

That is bizarre about the picture of the man suspected of being the killer on one of the girl's phone. Do you think that was planted on the phone by the real killer? Like the killer snapped a picture of a man to make it look like her was the one who did it.

I totally do not understand the recording of "up the hill"...was that found on one of the girl's phones? By itself like just a voice recording??

And then the girl's phones were shut off and stopped pinging right before they were killed?

Alexandra said...

The sheriff's statements are really weird. It definitely seems like he is covering something up...either who did it or something about the nature of the crimes...was it gruesome were the teens raped? He's hiding something.

Anonymous said...

Re: Abby and Libby case: Who is this guy talking in the 2 min video? Is this a state police guy? Something very intense about him. Why does he repeat "Noone will ever know" in reference to describing the killer as someone noone would ever suspect.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19psF7Je4oI

Alexandra said...

The state police guy talking in the video I posted at 8:14 gives me chills up the back of my neck and his eyes look deranged. Is he the guy making the weird statements regarding the community making up their own minds how to feel about the case? Regardless, I think maybe he is the killer.

Alexandra said...

I don't understand why the killer would shut the girls' phones off, yet leave the phones with the girls (?)
The girls were found in the water. Where were the phones found? On land? I would think the killer would have loved to have taken the phones as a souvenir and also to remove evidence.
Did the killer take anything? Clothing?
What was cause of death?

If they had the capacity to record his voice, why wouldnt they have called 911? It's very strange.
Part of me wonders if the photo of the man as well as the ominous "down the hill" were planted on the phone by the killer.

Alexandra said...

I would say the killer is most likely very low intelligence level and I would say also probably abuses alcohol. The more I think about it, I don't think the killer planted the photo and recordings on the phone. This is a low intelligence killer under the influence of alcohol. I think it's smart they arrested the owner of the land for warrant for DUI bc imo he could fit the profile if also he is also very dumb.

Alexandra said...

OK now Im intrigued with the case, so I read more. Disturbingly on reddit someone posted what was done to the girls (cause of death). This is a bad person. They need to catch him. Im not even sure exactly how to profile this brutal killer. The police chief is withholding info bc of the brutal nature of the crime.

Anonymous said...

One thing that is odd that I noticed is that the guy in the picture looks like he's probably late 50's. However, the voice that says "down the hill" sounds like it is from a man in his 30's.

However, I do not believe what some are saying (derived from the fact the police chief said he wanted to find the man who had "participated" in the killings) that there were two killers. No, I believe it was one killer.

Obviously the killer had to have lured the girls to meet him in that rural area under the guise of being probably a teenage boy.

I have a feeling the killer lives or works on a farm due to the manner of killing...this is a killer who has slaughtered animals on a farm.

I am convinced the man in the picture is the actual killer, although it seems widely accepted as fact. Some are speculating he has a gun holstered to his side in the picture. Again, this is speculation.

This is a killer who has used "overkill" in this crime, very brutal crime. Part of me thinks he knows the girls or their families. There seems to be intense anger involved in the crime as well as it was a sexual homicide, but the killer used overkill.

Part of me thinks he had to have known the girls or their families and he was intensely angry at someone related to these girls.

Anonymous said...

should say I am NOT convinced the man in the picture is the actual killer

Ulla said...

OT
Double murder in Delphi

There have been no details released about the crime; it may have been "very brutal" but no one has said so officially.

Why would they say "participated" in crime if LE didn't suspect two perps?

If the man in the photos were not involved, he would have surely come forward.

I agree that the police chief is acting strange because of the overwhelmingly evil nature of the crime, but no details have been released, none, so anything written on blogs, etc, is speculation and not proven true at this point.

Why did the chief speak so cryptically when asked if there was any danger to the public?

I think the murderer was anything but disorganized and drunk, unfortunately- if he had been the girls might have escaped.

Justice for Abby and Libby.

Anonymous said...

Oh yeah you're right, the killer was wicked smaht. He walked along with his head down not caring if anyone was watching him approach, allowed himself to be photographed, and left the phones there for the police to find his picture and supposed "voice recording". The police are wicked smaht too to think that if a 12 year old girl is being commanded (probably at gunpoint) down a hill, fearing for her life, she is going to think "you know what I think it would be very useful to record the voice of this man who is trying to kill me!" Cause that makes any kind of sense right? A lot more sense than pressing the 911 button. Smart killer too that he let the girls carry their phones and use them and record his voice while he had them under siege.

There is no possibility at all that the reason the killer left the phones there for the police to find is because he was hiding at a vantage point where he actually saw the girl's photographing the area where another man was and knew the girls had a picture of another man who would then become the suspect on their phones.

The killer is either very smart or very stupid and if the killer is the guy who is pictured on the phone, he is VERY stupid.

Anonymous said...

Did it ever occur to the police that the killer may have initially approached the girl's saying something like that he is a professional photographer and can he help them take a picture or simply pretended to be a friendly person like "I see you girls are taking pictures. Would you like me to take a picture of the two of you by the bridge? The girls give him a phone...he takes a picture of a random man...gives it back to the girls and says "sorry that man was in the way". After the "Bridge" guy walks away, he then pulls a gun on the girls and orders them to go wherever he took them.

Anonymous said...

That one picture of Abby on the bridge (the last picture taken of her) almost looks professional the way the photographer took it at an angle to the bridge (not straight on) in order to frame the bridge and landscape within the picture in an artistic way. It really does not look like a 12 year old took the picture.

Is it possible that someone else took that picture? Someone who offered to help them?

And that that someone then also photographed the random man in blue on the bridge to "frame" him as the suspect.

Think of it. The killer had to somehow approach these girls...if he saw them taking pictures he may have offered to help them like saying he is a professional photographer and can help them get some good shots of the bridge etc.

Anonymous said...

One final thought about the "voice recording".

It is possible that maybe the girls asked a random person to give them directions on how to get to a specific spot in the trails, and someone was merely giving them directions and one of the girls tried to record the directions on her phone...if someone began talking and the girl thought "oh gee I should record these directions, she may have not started the recording in enough time and only managed to record "down the hill". I actually think this may be what happened, because I don't understand why a young girl under duress and fearing for her life would have any instinct to record her captor's voice. Wouldn't a person be more thinking how to get away? Or how to not get hurt by the captor? I don't understand WHY the girl would have any urge to record the voice of her captor.

Also, teens do not usually use that feature of the phone (voice recording). I have known middle-aged people who will use it to record an address or some information like that that they want to remember, but typically kids these days did not grow up with "tape recorders" and generally that feature of the phone is obsolete to them. So it seems extra strange to think that under duress, the girl would think "gee I should record my captor's voice". What good would it do her? People in life and death situations make split second decisions for survival and recording his voice would not help her in any way and would in fact put her at risk if he saw her fiddling with her phone.

There is always the possibility the killer asked someone to give directions and recorded someone telling him "down the hill" to plant a fake clue, but that seems unlikely.

Anonymous said...

If the killer were as stupid as you say, he would obviously already have been caught.

Anonymous said...

I believe he has been caught. (Property Owner is the killer imo and according to some of the details in the forensic profile I created.)

Anonymous said...

Why would PO leave the bodies on his own land? Plus he's almost 80...

He did describe the scene as "pristine" in one interview, weird choice of a word.

Alexandra said...

Anon,

When searchers first looked for the girls that night, they were not in the stream where they were found the next day. So whoever killed them brought them somewhere first. That does not look good for PO, since a likely place they could have been brought was to his house on the property.
Why would he leave their bodies on his land? Well whoever killed them killed them near or next to the stream, bc their necks were slashed...it's not like someone would have slashed their necks causing tons of bleeding and then put their bodies in a car to hide them somewhere. No the killer brought them somewhere during the day and then brought them back to the stream while it was dark and killed them at the stream.
The killer did not attempt to hide the bodies, therefore why couldnt the killer be PO? The killer was not trying to hide the bodies...this was not his intention whether the killer was PO or whoever. PO could simply say that someone else did it since there are people hiking the trails everyday.
The fact that he is almost 80 is shocking but he looks to be in good physical shape, looks like he works on the farm, takes care of his horses. He is not exactly riding around in a lark. He could have done the crime.
Could you post the quote where he uses the word "pristine"? Tia

Anonymous said...

I wasnt aware till today that some people think the Delphi killer could also also be the Evansdale (Iowa) killer (I had never heard of that case). But it seems likely. The Evansdale killing was 2 girls, killed in a park known for its bridges, done on the 13th of the month just like the Delphi killings. High likelihood it is the same person imo. Way too many similarities.

Anonymous said...

Law Enforcement has ruled out any connection.

Anonymous said...

peter i saw you on crime watch today! this case with ayla is one of the first cases i started reading about on your blog. before i even knew you would be on the show i came to your blog post to check! im glad to see you are advocating for these victims still today.

lynda said...

anon @ 12:25

You keep focusing/tunnel vision on the fact that Abby didn't have the wherewithal to record and that killer let them keep their phones

Police have NOT said they have her phone. They said they got the video off her phone. If I had to guess, I would think they pulled it off Icloud. The phone could be destroyed but that does NOT destroy what is already on the cloud.

Something happened that made abby begin to video the bridge guy. Maybe he was following them, maybe he just gave them the creeps, whatever...she tapes him and then pockets her phone while it is still recording. It is obvious that is what she did. She recorded him saying go down the hill...you can hear them walking and the "air noise" that comes from being in a purse,pocket, etc. the killer could have discovered the phone, erased or destroyed the phone, hell he could have thrown it in the river.The likelihood was they didn't have the phone and got it from the cloud.
Pressing 911? For what? Did they even have a signal out in the middle of the woods? If she was trying to be covert, how covert can you be talking to 911? What location would she give? Out in the middle of the woods? Calling 911 out in the middle of the woods does not tell 911 where you are, it may ping, but that would be the nearest tower that is probably at least a 3mile wide radius

Anonymous said...

iCloud? That's not going to store video that hasnt been saved to anything.
If Abby left the phone on "record" why is it that all it recorded was "down the hill"? Nothing else said after that that could be shared with the public?
I believe the police have the phones. The killer left the phone there bc he wanted it to be found.
Also whether there is a signal for 911 or not out there, are you telling me that someone being abducted wouldnt at least try to hit the emergency call button in hopes 911 would hear what was happening to them? Instead they would decide "let's just record the abductor's voice". You say it was in a purse? How do you know and why would they have brought purses on a hike?

Why is there no FBI profile on this killer? It upsets me. I could try to do one if its too difficult for anyone in LE to put one together.
Double killings are very rare...you would think this would assist them tremendously in doing a profile, yet there is no profile on the killer.
Why does he abduct and kill two at once? Was he forced to watch a sibling being abused/beaten as a child so he wants one of the pair to have to be terrified watching the other be killed?
It really astounds me that noone profiles these killers, because I do think it is useful in helping to catch them.
I think the killer may have been the one who ordered Abby to record it in order to traumatize law enforcement and those who would end up hearing whatever was recorded on the phone.
That's what Im picking up on is the killer was forced to watch a sibling being abused/beaten as well as he himself was beaten and abused. He wants other people to feel that same terror (only worse). He may have ordered Abby to hit the voice record to terrify those who would later hear whatever it recorded.

Anonymous said...

The ONLY other thing that I wonder is (since rumor is it was a gruesome killing but no cause of death being released)...could a bear have killed them? Because, if so, that could explain horrific injuries. If anyone's seen that movie Grizzly Man...at the end of it he and his girlfriend get mauled to death by a grizzly bear and it was caught on tape recording bc the guy was camping there to film grizzly bears and those who heard the tape were horrified. Bears can do serious damage. Could one have been hungry after winter hibernation?

Anonymous said...

Could Logan have had knowledge of bears on his property and not warned anyine? With the lack of snow, male bears have continued wandering around this winter instead of hibernating. Bears have razor sharp teeth...I put cat food out in a cardboard bowl for stray cats every night...one time in the morning the bowl looked like Edward Scizzorhands attacked it...I was petrified for a minute till I realized it had to have been a bear wandering by that had gotten the food--their ranges are vast something like 20 miles so if a bear killed the girls it would be far away by the time they were found. I have seen raccoons, skunks, cats and dogs eat the cat food, they do not bite or tear the bowl. They actually are very neat eaters--racoons in particular clean the bowl--it looks like its been through a dishwasher after they are dine eating. The bear mutilated the bowl--it looked like Edward Scozzorhands attacked it. Just saying...bears can cause serious damage...could a bear have attacked the girls?

Anonymous said...

What is going on here? One poster thinks they can do an official FBI profile and has already diagnosed the perp with childhood trauma. really?
Another thinks bears are the culprits because raccoons are too neat and tidy.
The phone could have been purposely left on to record and not found by the killer.
The only statements to analyze are from the property owner and the police.

Peter Hyatt said...

Deemarie said...
Your blog has become political. I want to read an analysis -- not a blog that links to Fox news. True analysis must remain free of all personal opinions and political affiliations.
March 20, 2017 at 5:00 PM


I will avoid all lies within the realm to politics, Deemarie.

I thank you for showing me the error of my ways.

If a news story that is only crime, and not politics, comes from Foxnews, I will also avoid it.

I will avoid all deception in issues of sex, since sex has been politicized.
I will avoid all deception in murder, since Planned Parenthood is now an industry of billions, dwarfing even the most strident Nazi's dream.
I will avoid all deception regarding exploitation, because there is racism behind it.
I will avoid all deception regarding violence, because it will possibly point to a person of color.
I will avoid all sexual assaults, because they might mean defining a man and defining a woman. That is bound to hurt someone's feelings.

Anything else?

Thank you,

Peter

LC said...

Touche' Peter.