Saturday, November 11, 2017

Roy Moore's Veteran's Day Speech

Roy Moore spoke publicly about the allegation of sexual abuse of a 14 year old girl. 
We look for him to say, "I did not molest her", or "I did not take her clothes off" or other such denials in which he psychologically puts himself "in" the denial, with the pronoun "I."
We want to hear him address the event in the past tense; not in, "I would never"...denials. 
As he continues to speak, we obtain more information.  Today he said,
These attacks involve a minor and they are completely false and untrue about something that happened nearly 40 years ago,
Here he acknowledges that "something" happened, but addresses the element of time: "nearly 40 years ago."
This is not to deny molesting her, nor is it consistent with something that did not occur.  
If he had never met her how could he acknowledge when something happened?

Or if we use his earlier denials, How could something that never happened have happened 40 years ago?

He can tell us that it was not his norm to date very young women. 
He can tell us that this is being done to harm him politically. 
He can tell us that the woman's motive is to harm him. 
He can tell us that he has been a public servant for 40 years. 
He can tell us that his accuser would not make a good attorney. 
He can tell us that the Washington Post is fake news.  
He can tell us that his people are investigating.  
He can tell us that he and his family are hurt by the allegation. 

But he can't tell us that he did not molest her.  
Moore said the allegations contradict his entire career as a lawyer and judge.

This is similar to what we hear from child molesters who "deny" the allegation by saying,
"But I am a happily married man."

It is a common deceptive statement in child abuse investigations.

He also has invoked Deity into his statements, showing that he has the need for Divine witness to his words.  This is contrary to the psychological "wall of truth."  There is an appropriate time for lawful oath making and there is, as noted within analysis, the weakness of "swear to God" is invoked.  

In his speech, Moore had one question on his mind: "Why now? Why did it take decades for the allegations to surface
The motive for the allegation is immaterial in comparison to a denial.  
If he never met her and could not have done what he is accused of, he should state this as a priority. 
Why now? The Democrats and the Republican establishment know the importance of this election. In fact, most people in America know the importance of this election. They see it as a prelude to the elections coming in 2018. It may very well determine the future of our country. My opponent is 11 points behind. That came out just days before this article came out. They are desperate. 
This article is a prime example of fake news, an attempt to divert attention from the true issues which affect our country, like health care, military readiness, tax reform, immigration and national debt. We do not intend to let the Democrats or the established Republicans or anybody else behind this story stop this campaign. There are investigations going on. In the next few days there will be revelations about the motivations and the content of this article. They will be brought to the public. We fully expect the people of Alabama to see through this charade and to vote in the primary coming up.
This still does not deny the allegation.  

How did Moore end the statement?

He finished by urging his supporters to ponder one question.
He said: “Everybody in this room should ask themselves: isn’t it strange that after 40 years of constant investigation, people have waited to four weeks prior to the general election to bring their complaints?”
“That’s not a coincidence,” Moore said. “It’s an intentional act to stop the campaign.”
First, let's look at the statement and then consider his question. 

The question is, "isn't it strange that after 40 years of constant investigation, people have waited to four weeks prior to the general election to bring their complaints?"

This is a yes or no question. 

For some, it will be "yes, this is strange", while others will say, "no, this is not strange."

They may disagree on yes or no, for the very same reason. 

"yes, it is strange" as to why the victim waited 40 years to make the statement public. 

But if the allegation is true: he took off the clothes of a 14 year old girl and sexually molested her, would it matter if the timing is strange?

Would it matter if the motive was to destroy him politically?

Would it matter if the motive was to harm Donald Trump, Republicans, or even the entire country?

Whether it is strange or not, the question is, "Did you do it?"

To this, he has had many opportunities to plainly deny the allegation of sexual molestation.  

Instead, he not only avoids the simple reliable denial, but he seeks to attack motive. 

The motive may be illicit, or it may be even vengefully made, but it does not change the allegation nor Moore's inability to deny it. 

What happens from here is this:

The more he avoids the allegation and instead turns to attacking media, political rivalries and the motive of the accuser, the more the untrained public will realize:  

he is not truthful.  

Had he said, "I did not molest ______.  I did not remove her clothing, nor have her touch me", the story would not have gotten as popular as it has been. 

This is the issue with reliable denials in media: 

They are boring and do not "sell newspapers", including in the internet world.  

Sean Hannity was even handed with Moore and even fed him wording to use, yet, in the "free editing process"; that is, when one is speaking for oneself, Roy Moore was incapable of denying the allegation. 

Here he has signaled that he has knowledge that something, in deed, did take place. 

This is a change from his earlier statements.  

At a certain point, he may read analysis (or have it reported to him) and issue a reliable denial, but given the amount of free editing time afforded him, it should not be considered reliable.  

We have an expression in the world of criminal analysis:

If the subject can't say he didn't do it, we are not permitted to say it for him.  


Anonymous said...

This is going to spiral out of control. I read an article that has more of his quotes that don't pass the smell test, but who knows if he's been misquoted?!

The Washington Post has one that you, Peter, might want to look at if you're very invested in the subject. Not like it will make a hill of beans in the long run, as his accuser is also in the judicial system and political groups.

Concerned said...

Anon @ 7:13
Roy Moore has a pretty distinct voice.
Listen to the entire Hannity radio interview.
No misquoting.
Hannity had to take a commercial while someone obviously told Moore to say "No" after the break.
As Peter said, Hannity tried to coach him into a believable lie and he just couldn't get there.

LC said...

I just saw a very small portion of Moore speaking from a podium.
"I am not guilty of....."
...Honest statement, since he hasn't been tried in a court of Law.
certainly not a reliable denial in SA.

Deejay said...

I know SA does not look at motives. But I will throw out my guess- This is not politically motivated, she thinks he is a pervert.

The woman, Leigh, is first indignant that a man who manipulated her as a child holds a position of trust and power; first as a Judge, and next as a Senator. Second, she is worried that her past silence has allowed him to molest other young women since her experience. (anger and guilt)

As to why does it come out now?? As a nation, we hold Senators to pretty high standards- expecting them to be decent moral citizens, even more than we do the President.
Before--- WHO WOULD SHE TELL?? Who would have listened? "Oh that is too bad" "Sorry that happened to you" Now people are finally saying "Wait- this guy wants to be my Senator- What is his true character?" Because Moore is running, people are paying attention.

She is speaking out now because she feels his behavior speaks to his character.

Statement Analysis Blog said...


SA does look at motives.

When deception is indicated, we often find motive within a statement.

Motive, however, does not nullify veracity finding.

When an event is reported, if the subject is telling the truth, the veracity is indicated, even if the motive is illicit. Many times, motive comes out and is examined under "priority."


Statement Analysis Blog said...

Regarding the call to step out of the race:

This, too, is politically motivated.

No one should step out of a race if falsely accused. This would destroy an already tattered American civility status. It would become the tool of much destruction.

If one is falsely accused, he or she should issue the denial and not budge.

Michael Jackson and Bill O'Reilly did not pay millions because they were innocent.


Anonymous said...

I am curious as to what age Roy Moore's "customary behavior" begin? After marriage?

In Alabama '79, it may have been next to impossible to find illegible women in his age group that were unmarried, never married, or willing to support his "customary behavior."

Most women marry young in the south, and Alabama would have them marry much younger. He was 32.

Maybe I have the facts wrong, but I found her name and age on the Internet and it states she is 56...just a couple years older than the accuser.

So, what's all the banter about if this is true?

Statement Analysis Blog said...

Here is the accuser's mother contradicting her daughter's claim:


Deejay said...

Leigh has a birth certificate- her age is known. It is HER story being analyzed. 3 other women's names and ages were tossed out there- which maybe confusing. Her mom was attending a custody hearing- the age of her child is a matter of record. Leigh was at the Courthouse, Moore was at the Courthouse. Her family was breaking up. How would you make up a story that had you and some random adult at the same place when you were 14 years old?? How would that even be possible to do??

I find it hard to stomach that sexual contact between 32 year olds and 14 year olds was that common in the south or anywhere else. 14 is a ninth grader. She was watching the Monkees and Scooby-doo, getting crushes on Danny Partridge. This man had been through college and had a job for probably most of a decade. She is NOT describing the worst possible monster- There was sexual contact she did not understand, BUT she was not raped. He took her home when she asked. He did not try to blackmail her into further compromising situations.

Peter says- the actions are in the past. They either happened or they did not. No amount of discussion by anyone in the country will change whether or not it happened.
So SA and other means of detection are an effort to look at the current information to determine the MOST PROBABLE past actions.

How many times have you believed someone who was telling a lie? Or disbelieved someone who was truthful? SA requires the analyst to have an open mind- the best information comes when the reader has no prior knowledge of the story. The worst info comes when the reader DESIRES A CERTAIN OUTCOME (as many do in this sad case.)

I hope Moore turns out to be the man Alabama believes he is. We need decent people in government.

(And these allegations as stated would be enough for me to keep my children away from him. My children's safety comes first.)

June Bug said...

The Washington Post paraphrases "her phone in her bedroom"; Bretbart asks if she had her own phone in her bedroom introducing a new word. Would "own" change her or her mothers definition of "my phone"? What is meant by “But the phone in the house could get through to her easily.”? Does that mean she could move the phone into her room?

Unknown said...

BTW, this man did not have to find a woman his own age; he just had to find a woman over the age of 18. It was very common back then for adult women in their late teens or early 20's to not be married or dating anyone.

This guy is just a predatory pervert and that is that. No one should make any excuses for him.

Anonymous said...

well there. no need to read opinions or analysis. rose knows. I didn't read excuses here.

Statement Analysis Blog said...


it reminds me of when a journalist asked Casey Anthony's female attorney, who was gushing and gushing over Casey, if she would mind Casey babysitting her children!


That changed her tune quickly.


Deejay said...

Peter- I am the only mom my kids have. Their safety and mental health is my most important job. I would keep them away from Roy Moore or anyone on just the rumor that he had dated high school students when in his 30s. I would not feel the need to give him a chance-

That said- My favorite political people are upstanding and do not have scandals in their background. But these type sadly seem to be in short supply. My dearest wish is that we get choices between candidates so admirable and honest that we have trouble choosing. lol Maybe next time.

Anonymous said...

There is only one instance that makes him look like a predatory pervert, imo, and that is the claim of the woman who said he asked for her number while "babysitting" while her mother went into a child custody hearing. Even her mother recalls the incident and thought him a nice guy for doing so. she also claims her daughter told her about the 'affair' about a decade later.

If this is true, I'd bet dollars to donuts there's more. When you think about it, her mother was most likely closer to his age than the child.

The others aged 16,17,18 may seem weird to some (me included)but he did stay within the age of consent with them. Whether or not their parents knew about the dates is unknown. Most would blow their top, I'd think. I don't know, not from Alabama.

June Bug said...

Supplying a 14 year old with alcohol, undressing her and groping her is not an "affair."

Anonymous said...

Dear God! They've got the Jeremiah Project that is basically tinfoil conspiracy 70s rewrite of the Bohemian Grove, killing of JFK,New World Order, and gloom and doom related to things happening prior to 9/11 as a non-profit.

These people are genuinely scary.

I was being nice with use of "affair."

You should be concerned about what's about to happen more than what happened 40 years ago but bear in mind what is claimed.

Anonymous said...

Do people like Roy Moore, highly educated, prefer to use denials that "sound" good, rather than a more simplistic reliable denial? Do they think their denials will be more believable if they are more lengthy?

Statement Analysis Blog said...


liars have a need to convince, so, yes, they do think the longer the denial the greater the acceptance.

See the "romance novel of steroid use" denial by Ryan Braun.

Reliable denials are very short and very boring.

See the 45 minute plus denial of Chris Christie in Bridgegate. It took him that long to get to his denial.


rob said...

Just for the record, I'm a life-long southerner, and as a rule, 30-something yr old men don't date teens. That's a tale from a northerner who has probably never visited or lived in the south.
I also believe Moore. I think if there was anything to this, we'd have heard about it years earlier. He probably had help writing a speech and is reading someone else's words.
I do not think this way because I'm a conservative Republican, if I thought he was guilty, I'd be trying to bring him down myself.
I'd need to see the victims political past to not think someone put her up to this, at this time.
The man's been a judge, why did she not speak up then.

June Bug said...

So, rob, do you think since Cosby's accusers didn't say anything for so long, there's nothing to that, either? Were they motivated by politics, too?

Joey Buttafuoco said...

Just for the record, I'm a life-long southerner, and as a rule, 30-something yr old men don't date teens. That's a tale from a northerner who has probably never visited or lived in the south.

Right on, rob! Doesn't happen up here either!

Anonymous said...

I think Peters analysis is pretty clear. Roy Moore never denied dating minors. If I were him, I would not want a speech writer denying something for me if I was truly innocent.

rob said...

June Bug said...
So, rob, do you think since Cosby's accusers didn't say anything for so long, there's nothing to that, either? Were they motivated by politics, too?

there were rumors and accusations of that for years. I have never heard any talk of this until now, and during the worst political climate I have ever witnessed.
Just my opinion

LC said...

Cosby's accusers DID make reports to authorities, agents, friends and relatives. Charges were never pursued because the authorities didn't believe they could be successful in prosecuting a famous actor.

rob said...

I was referring to the statement in a previous post

"Most women marry young in the south, and Alabama would have them marry much younger. He was 32."

I'm saying that statement is not true.

Statement Analysis Blog said...


What to consider is this:

1. The alleged victim's statement. On its form, is it reliable or is it unreliable?

2. Roy Moore's denial: is it reliable or unreliable?

If you come up with analysis that shows:

a. The alleged victim's statement indicates deception or is unreliable and
b. Judge Moore's denial is reliable

Then, you look into:

Why now?
Why not all these years ago?
What is the motive?
What is the political connections, etc.

I know you are a reader of Statement Analysis, and I don't think formally trained, so:

What do you conclude about

a. Victim's statement?
b. Roy Moore's denials?

Please notice that I have kept myself to the claim of sexually molesting a 14 year old girl; not the dating claims of teenagers.

American Thinker has a few articles asserting as to why they believe Moore.

I am basing this solely upon the language of the two.


PS: this is not only for Rob, but anyone else who wants to participate.

Voters will form an opinion on whether or not the allegation (singular) is true or not and for some, if true, is he still a better choice than his opponent.

Concerned said...

Another woman just told her story on CBS.
He hit on her while she was a waitress at 15.
Moore can't say he didn't meet her because she has the high school
yearbook he signed.
When she was 16, he molested her in his car...He held her head to his crotch.
She resisted and
he told her she was a child and no one would believe her if she told.
She has offered to testify under oath to the Congress.

June Bug said...

My name is Beverly Young Nelson.

I was born on November 14, 1961. In Santa Maria, California.

My husband, John, and I have been married for the last 13 years. He has taken time off from his work as a truck driver to be here with me today and I thank him for that.

When I was 15 years old I began working after school. I was attending Gadsden High School. I worked at the Olde Hickory House on E. Meighan Blvd. off of Highway 431 in Gadsden, Alabama. I worked there after school as a waitress. Some nights I worked until 7pm and other nights until 10pm.

Mr. Roy Moore was a regular customer. He came in almost every night and would stay until closing time. He sat at the counter in the same seat night after night. I remember exactly where he sat.

Mr. Moore was an adult. He was much older than I was. I knew that he was the District attorney in Elowah County. I did not understand what that meant, but I knew that he was an important person and I always treated him with respect.

June Bug said...

When he was at the restaurant he would speak to me and would sometimes pull the ends of my long hair as I walked by him. I had red hair down to my waist. He would complement me on my looks. I did not think anything of it. I did nothing to encourage his flirtatious behavior. I was accustomed to men flirting with me because I was well developed and I competed in beauty pageants. I did not attach any significance to Mr. Moore’s behavior towards me and I did not respond to any of Mr. Moore’s flirtatious behavior for two reasons: First, I had a boyfriend. Second, even if I had not had a boyfriend I was not interested in having a dating or sexual relationship with a man twice my age.

I turned 16 on November 14, 1977. About a month later I received my yearbook from Southside high school where I had spent my freshman and sophomore years. I happened to bring my yearbook to work with me to the restaurant on December 22, 1977. I put it down at the end of the counter. Mr. Moore happened to notice it and asked if he could write in your yearbook. I felt flattered and I said “yes”. He wrote in my yearbook as follows:

I took the yearbook home with me at the end of my shift that day. I felt honored that Mr. Moore, who was such an important person, would write in my yearbook.

A week or two later I was working at the restaurant. My shift ended at 10pm when the restaurant closed. It was a cold night and I went outside to wait for my boyfriend to pick me up and drive me home. My boyfriend was late. Mr. Moore exited the restaurant at the same time as I did. He noticed that my boyfriend was not there and he offered me a ride home.

I trusted Mr. Moore. He was the District attorney. I thought that he was simply doing something nice by offering to drive me home. I did not want to wait outside in the cold so I agreed.

I wanted to call my boyfriend but this was before cell phones and I had no way to contact him. My home was only about two and a half miles away. I planned to call my boyfriend after I got home to let him know that I had gotten a ride home and that there was no need for him to pick me up.

Mr. Moore was wearing brown hush puppies on his feet. He drove a two door car. I believe that it was an old car, but I do not recall the model. I got into his car in the passenger seat. He began driving. I thought he would get on the highway, but instead he drove to the back of the restaurant. I was not immediately alarmed as there was an exit from the back of the restaurant to the street and he could drive from there to my house without getting on the highway. However, instead of driving to the street he stopped the car and parked his car in between the dumpster and the back of the restaurant where there were no lights. The area was dark and deserted. I was alarmed and I immediately asked him what he was doing.

Instead of answering my question, Mr. Moore reached over and began groping me, putting his hands on my breasts. I tried to open my car door to leave, but he reached over and locked it so I could not get out. I tried fighting him off, while yelling at him to stop, but instead of stopping he began squeezing my neck attempting to force my head onto his crotch. I continued to struggle. I was determined that I was not allow him to force me to have sex with him. I was terrified. He was also trying to pull my shirt off. I thought that he was going to rape me. I was twisting and struggling and begging him to stop. I had tears running down my face.

June Bug said...

At some point he gave up. He then looked at me and said, “you are a child. I am the District attorney of Etiwah County. If you tell anyone about this, no one will believe you.” He finally allowed me to open the car door and I either fell out or he pushed me out. I was on the ground as he pulled out of the parking area behind the restaurant. The passenger door was still open as he burned rubber pulling away leaving me lying there on the cold concrete in the dark.

I got up and tried to pull myself together. I was making my way to the front of the restaurant when my boyfriend arrived. It was late and it was dark. I did not say anything to him as to what had occurred as he had a violent temper and I was afraid that he would do something that would get him into trouble. When I got home I went to my room. The following morning my neck was black and blue and purple. In the days following I covered the bruising on my neck with makeup. I did not tell anyone about what had happened. I was scared. I felt that if I told anyone Mr. Moore would do something to me or my family. I decided to keep what happened to myself.

The day after Mr. Moore assaulted me I called the restaurant and quit my job. I never went there again.

About two years later I told my younger sister what Mr. Moore did to me. About four years ago I told my mother what happened. Before I married my husband, John, I told him what Mr. Moore had done to me.

My husband and I supported Donald Trump for President. This has nothing to do with Republicans or Democrats. It has everything to do with Mr. Moore’s sexual assault when I was a teenager.

I thought that I was Mr. Moore’s only victim. I would probably have taken what Mr. Moore did to me to my grave, had it not been for the courage of four other women that were willing to speak out about their experiences with Mr. Moore. Their courage has inspired me to overcome my fear.

Mr. Moore attacked me when I was a child. I did nothing to deserve his sexual attack. I was frightened by his position and his power. I am coming forward to let Mr. Moore know that he no longer has any power over me and I no longer live in fear of him.

Anonymous said...

Thank you Junebug! It's easier to digest without crying this way. BTW, the yearbook wording is missing (FYI).

I believe her account of the events of that night.She remembers the shoes! The flirting is sensitive to her as if she still blames herself for not knowing better.

The conversation of what exactly he said is a bit fuzzy, whether he said it or not(verbatim), she certainly felt it. I'd bet he said something similar.

Trying to rape her at her place of work....jeesh! What's that all about? Surely there are deserted roads nearby. Was he trying to intimidate her into sex or walk in the cold?

She had to quit work! Bet those who worked with her were surprised and put out a bit considering the holiday season.Wonder if he inquired of her afterwards in the restaurant? He'll get stumped on the replies to this one.

There's a couple of 'immediately'(s) in there. Self-defense I think. Self blame/self defense.

June Bug said...

In the article, the yearbook wording was a picture, not typed out. It's at the link I gave though.

June Bug said...

And I agree the flirting is sensitive. She's not sure she didn't flirt back.

Anonymous said...

“To a sweeter more beautiful girl I could not say Merry Christmas. Christmas 1977. Love, Roy Moore... Roy Moore, DA.”

Anonymous said...

That yearbook signing gets me. It's negative, imo.

Why not: Merry Christmas to a sweet and beautiful girl.

But...."I could not say Merry Christmas." WHY NOT CREEP?

Okay, I'm done. Just sayin'.

Anonymous said...

Why not: Merry Christmas to a sweet and beautiful girl.

Order of importance. Christmas wasn't priority.