Missing Persons: Statement Analysis
A general principle of Statement Analysis:
The past tense reference to a missing person should be flagged. This must be understood in context of both human nature and the case.
a. the age of the victim
b. the length of time missing when the statement is made
c. News reports either from police, media, or eye witnesses
Denial is a natural self protective element of the human brain. We all have it.
a. The gender
b. The relationship
c. The quality of the relationship
The father and boyfriend have spoken out freely.
These two contextual points are critical in our expectation.
These are general principles to follow. Generalizations have exceptions; but we do not establish principle on exception.
As a criminal analyst follows the likeliness found in pattern, investigatory success is realized. Live cases put our work to the test.
1. Women have superior emotional capacities over men. This is neuroscience 101and has only recently, in history, become an issue. The hormonal flooding of a pre-born child at 7-8 weeks creates the difference. What appears simlilar or indistinguishable at 7 weeks is different at 8 weeks. Oxytocin, for example, is greatly increased upon the child. Every influence upon the child, such as the mother's voice, is now interpreted by the brain through the hormones. As the male receives higher levels of testosterone, the difference is stark.
The result is a difference in brain processing, behavior and evidenced in language. This is why it is essential to have male and female analysts. The perspective is complementary.
2. Men have stronger physical capacities than women. Testosterone levels are higher and require greater social construct for societal safety and wellbeing. This is why boys were once taught "sportsmanship" so that they learned to honor weakness after exploiting it in competition. It is why fatherless homes, statistically have more violence, poverty, incarceration and substance abuse.
Males engage and accept violence more readily than females. They read more about it and are more interested in it. They often can "accept" it in a missing persons case before a female.
The indoctrination of "social construct" trendy today is another war on nature. Nature does not lose the war, though bloody battles, such as societal acceptance of female violence, ensue. This narrative leaves young people woefully unprepared for the hardship of life and the challenge of child rearing. It was championed by politicians which should have been society's first red flag.
I ask analysts to consider a loved one receiving an anonymous threatening letter but refusing to identify the author because it would mean discerning if language is male or female. "I know who wrote it and who you can arrest, but if I tell you, I am sexist and racist." Its a great thing for the ivory tower, but not for law enforcement or for safety.
This basic observation is why this indoctrination has significantly less impact upon men and women in law enforcement. Little instruction on human nature is needed.
3. Men will accept death earlier than Women. The denial (resistance) is more powerful upon women.
4. Fathers will begin to entertain the possibility of death of the victim before mothers will.
5. Siblings will begin to entertain the possibility of death before fathers.
6. Relationship Quality (objective) will factor into this. A biological mother will normally have higher denial levels than step mothers. Aunts, uncles, etc, all may show earlier acceptance or entertainment of possibility. This can change contextually in:
7. Relationship Quality (subjective) may indicate a very close bond (as seen in the language) of step mother having more resistance than a bio-mother not involved in the child's life. Even a non-relative who has been in the role of caretaker may show greater reluctance to use the past tense verb.
The External Context:
a. the age of the victim: A child incapable of self protection will factor into the language acutely.
b. the behavior of the victim: A runaway or substance abuse addict, with behavioral issues of risk, will impact acceptance.
c. News reports of any manner, such as police confiding in the family, media reports, neighbors, friends, crime rates, etc.
The biological parents of a missing toddler who reference their child in the past tense very early in the disappearance indicate a belief or knowledge of the child's death. The belief to knowledge factor in the language may be conflicted; from a nagging doubt to guilty knowledge.
The natural denial of a mother is expected. Even when placing a deceased child in a mother's arms, she may attempt to warm the child.
Here are some quotes from Mollie Tibbets' case. They are disjointed.
2018/08/01/mollie-tibbetts- dad-urges-any-witness-to-come- forward-says-somebody-knows- something.html
The boyfriend of missing college student Mollie Tibbetts told Fox News in an exclusive interview on Wednesday that he believes the doors of the home where she last stayed had been left unlocked – and he now locks his doors consistently.
[ STATEMENT ]:
“It’s Brooklyn. You don’t lock your doors,” said the boyfriend, Dalton Jack. “We lock our doors now. Every night.”
The use of the pronoun "you" indicates universality. It is a common practice in some communities, still.
[ STATEMENT ]:
“It’s more than likely because you know, nobody ever thought there was a reason to. Again, it’s Brooklyn. Nothing ever happens in Brooklyn. That’s why it’s such a blindsided situation.”
Repetition increases importance. The boyfriend, according to Media, is not a suspect. Here he revisits this point and has a need to explain why. We need to ask why this is important to him.
He was 100 miles away on a construction job, apparently verified by law enforcement.
What has produced this sensitivity?
Without a good interview or strong quote, we do not know.
*guilt over not protecting her?
*guilt over not reminding her to lock up at night, or leaving her alone?
*guilt due to knowledge not shared?
We do not know.
Calling it a "situation" is to be noted. Does he believe she was kidnapped? If so, it is not a "situation." This would be minimization.
Does he believe or know that something was bothering her?
This would be a "situation" and he should openly state anything he knows.
"Blindsided" is another word to consider. I would like to know more about his personal dictionary.
When asked about texting or calling her:
"I did for like the first week and a half. Not more recently. I was just trying to see literally if anybody would pick up. And then, yeah, straight to voicemail," he said.
He is young ("like", "literally") but I note the passivity of "And then, yeah, straight to voicemail."
Mark raised excellent questions here.
Was he seeing if Mollie would pick up? Any expectation that she would pick up? In the statement, this thought that Mollie might pick up is missing.
Here is another statement in which we recognize that there is missing information.
Is it innocuous missing information, or is it critical?
Is is something he told police, but was instructed not to reveal it publicly?
"I left for Dubuque, Iowa, which is about 100 miles away, morning at 5 in the morning. And I was staying there for work until what was supposed to be . And then after we found out she was missing I drove home. So I was in Dubuque the entire time."
Please note that "left" is an unnecessary connection here. His focus is upon the time and location of where he departed from; not upon where he was going.
He alibis himself. Why?
In a close relationship, I do not expect him to say "we" found out. Perhaps he was with a work crew when the information came; rather than being alone. I do not know, but I want to know.
Is this due to guilt? Or is it due to the sense of suspicion around him?
Was it due to a news that he heard while with others?
I do not know from the limited statements.
He is withholding information. It could be:
*he was late, rushing for work with a 2 hour drive; this would be innocuous and occurs approximately 70% of the time it is used. This is common in work situations.
What I want to know is this:
What happened and what was said prior to his departure.
Keep in mind, he may have already told police and he may have been instructed to keep this quiet.
*Was she depressed?
*With whom did they associate?
*Did they argue?
*Was she on Rx?
*Was she asleep?
**Did he believe she might have a reason to leave on her own?
My interview would focus right here in order to clear him or obtain information relevant to what happened. Right before he left, my focus would begin.
In the live broadcast, I heard him repeat "left" in his statement. Again, it could be innocuous but it must always be followed up upon.
He "left" and he had the need to explain why he left.
“for work” - Why he was staying in Dubuque was important enough to include here. Why is this so important to him to include right here? Has he felt suspicion upon him?
Does he feel guilt over reliving the last moments? Regret? Is he struggling with "what if I had..."?
Or is he concealing critical information?
If so, was it already shared with investigators?
Investigators frequently and appropriately restrict speech, by request, to protect the integrity of the investigation.
[ STATEMENT ]:
"I mean everybody has their own theories but I’m just kind of leaving it up to the law enforcement trying to figure that one out. I don’t want to go racking it through my brain thinking of what happened, what happened, what happened. Just driving myself insane.”
Concern for self noted. It could drive any loving person "insane" but concern for the victim means processing every thought for a possible clue.
Mollie Tibbet's brother:
Jake Tibbetts, 21: older brother's statements. His age, gender and his relationship must all be considered in context.
“She had the biggest heart. If anyone needed it, she was willing to doing anything. She hated to be sad and hated (for) others to be sad.”
This indicates belief or knowledge that she is deceased. The belief could be doubt, but it is strong enough to be in the language and repeated.
Guilty knowledge often attempts to conceal past tense reference, and may "slip" out inadvertently. Here, he is plainly speaking.
*Does he know or does he believe (including entertaining doubts) that Mollie is deceased?
He now goes into memory to consider his interaction with her. This should be past tense verbs:
“If Scott or I needed it, she’d send us a text. If we were having a tough time, she’d text us, ‘I love you guys'. Scott and I aren’t the kind of people to think that way. In hindsight, I really appreciated that she was.”
Here he works from memory and relates ongoing (indefinite) events and compares his personality to hers.
"In hindsight, I really appreciate that she was" is a strong past tense reference.
The qualification of "really" is typical of siblings' language, which is unique, often competitive and reluctant to credit. They grow out of this (usually).
With these statements, it is likely the brother believes she is dead.
Siblings have rivalry and often speak in a manner in which they understand each others' language well.
“She wasn’t afraid to be herself. A one of a kind.”
It is not subtle denigration, but the unique way siblings, at a young age, often compliment each other.
Sibling competition enters his language and the compliment is typical of the sibling context and the compliment which shows concession.
“She ran in cross country and track and still ran five times a week. She didn’t have the most talent, but she tried the hardest. Her talent was in speech and plays.”
Male siblings often have more struggle issuing compliments than female.
“They haven’t found anything, so as far as I know, she is alive,” Jake said.
His hope is weak.
Analysis Conclusion: Inconclusive.
The father's focus has been, in the limited statements, upon his child; appropriately. Dad is showing signs of strain and is desperate for information. His priority is his daughter. Dad does not care for anything but his daughter. His linguistic focus is the opposite of those referenced, including the McCanns, Baby Lisa's parents, Baby Sabrina's parents, Jonbenet Ramsey's parents, Justin DiPietro, father of Baby Ayla, Hailey Dunn's mother, Billie Jean Dunn and others indicated for deception. These cases are all covered on the blog.
The brother indicates belief that his sister is dead. He indicates inner conflict with this, but his doubt outweighs his optimism. He does not, in this limited sample, indicate guilty knowledge.
The boyfriend is concealing information. He may have been appropriately instructed to do so. It is not known to this point. Restrictions similar to this is found routinely in medial professionals limited in what they are permitted to talk about.
This does not mean he is involved. It means that he is thinking of something that he is not saying. The traffic or rushing that morning may be on his mind.
Or, it could be more significant.
*Did they argue?
*Did she run away?
*Was he instructed to not talk about her mental state at the time of her disappearance?
He could have shared this with police, or he may have felt accused by them, but it is not known from these short statements if it is guilty knowledge.
The analyst must not jump to conclusion but be led by the subject. Police have reportedly cleared him as a suspect.
In many cases of investigation, we find "attendant guilt." Investigators, for example, seeking to learn an answer often come upon illicit, immoral or illegal behavior, though unrelated to the original investigatory question.
In theft by employee, the investigation may indicate guilt, only to learn that he did not steal the money, but he has been doing other things, such as not showing up or showing up late, and having others cover for him. He may not have stolen, but he indicates guilt in his language because he has been using drugs on the job... and on it goes.
Years ago, a father was deceptive about his missing child. Later, a child molester neighbor was arrested and convicted of her murder. Why did the father indicate deception?
He was under the influence when his toddler left the home. As he spoke, he attempted to conceal this critical information.
Statement Analysis begins with the presupposition of de facto innocence which allows for high level content analysis. If the subject "talks us out" of this presupposition, we indicate guilt with "Deception Indicated."
For an example of presupposition of truth leading to linguistic confrontation, see the analysis of the parents of Madeleine McCann here. Listen to their words and let their words guide you. This is an example of explaining principles employed to an untrained audience.
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