Saturday, January 2, 2016

Statement Analysis and Blind Testing

Double Blind Testing is considered the 'gold standard' of scientific proof.  It is something that, in the advent of the internet, has taken on new meaning.

For example, wine testing and high end audio testing are two areas in which recent developments are of particular interest, and then how this applies to Statement Analysis.

Does expensive wine really taste better than moderately priced wine?

Does wine taste better in crystal than in plain glass?

Does a $2000 cable sound better than a $20 cable?

From AVguy blog:

"Robin Goldstein conducted over 6000 wine tastings with over 500 people including many wine experts who work in the industry. He discovered when people know the prices of the wines they clearly prefer more expensive wines. But when the the same wines are served “blind” (anonymously), the votes reverse and they express a strong preference for the least expensive wines

Goldstein exposed one of the most prestigious sources of wine ratings in the world, Wine Spectator, as arguably having their awards up for sale. He created a fictitious restaurant with a wine list featuring poorly reviewed wines with descriptions like “bug spray” and “barnyard”. Then, after paying the appropriate fee, his fake restaurant managed to score a Wine Spectator Award of Excellence. Goldstein argues organizations like Wine Spectator do not provide the sort of unbiased advice many anticipate. He also concluded their ratings have a heavy commercial and financial component the public is largely unaware of. It’s alarmingly analogous to high-end audio including the questionable awards. For those into podcasts check out the NPR story on Goldstein and wine myths . He’s also written a book on the subject called The Wine Trials. (photo: heatherontravels)

TASTE WRONG: How can the same people, taste the same wines in two different tastings, and rate them completely differently? The is our senses are not nearly as reliable as we think. In this case what’s known as expectation bias caused the wine tasters to perceive the wines differently. They expected the more expensive wines to taste better so their brains filtered their perception of taste to help deliver the expectation. But when they didn’t know anything about the wines, they couldn’t have any expectations, hence the bias was removed. I’ll explain more shortly but this is also critical to what we hear."

In high end audio, tests are given between CD quality MP3 and slightly less quality, with few people showing consistency in knowing the difference (the greater the gap in MP3, the more discerning the ears are).  In blogs where audiophiles discuss extremely expensive equipment, the "free blogs" and "free forums" are often company owned, who do 'honest reviews' where the company that pays to advertise on the site receive the best reviews for their products.  

When blind or 'double blind' testing is done, the forums may delete the links to the test results.  It is because, for example, in headphones, there can be a huge difference between quality as the headphones go up in price, but this then levels off, where outrageously priced earphones ($3500) are not picked out in blind testing over $150 ones.  Whereas the sound difference and build quality between $50 headphones and $500 headphones is great, once they reach elite levels, the differences are not discerned, for example,  between $700 headphones and $3000 headphones unless the people testing them know which are the more expensive ones.  

This is common to many such items sold and it helps to read advertising through the lens of analysis. Why? 

Because there is an author behind the scenes who is writing, revealing himself.  

I recently went to purchase batteries that had nine 5 star (out of 5) reviews giving them a perfect score.  I noted the language of each review was the same.  The reviews were shill.  I passed on the batteries.  It falls into propaganda and "need to persuade" categories.  They may be good and just 
unknown, but the company has a need to employ shill reviews, which leaves me unwilling to take a gamble and purchase from them.  


In Statement Analysis, "expectation bias" is something that can be pre screened, and it is in training that those who will fail in this matter will fail for a specific reason.

I have cited this before but it is predominantly that "expectation bias" comes from agenda, as the number one cause that can cause someone to fail out of a training course. The agenda influences the analysis and can cause error.  We all have bias, belief, agenda, and strong emotions, but these can all be both recognized and dealt with.  

The most powerful bias, however, is the basic understanding and belief about human nature that can disqualify one from analysis.   

A misguided view of human nature will cause expectation that will not lead to discernment of deception. It will fail to properly assert what is expected in language, because it does not properly understand what humans are most likely to do and what they are most likely to say under various scenarios.  

In going "backwards", reversing analysis, the same 'miss' will fail to see what type personality says and does certain things. 

Although there are various bias elements within expectation, it is very rare to overcome this particular error.  Our belief regarding human nature not only impacts what we expect people to do, and subsequently what people will  say, but it impacts how we view life, death, marriage, work, how we raise our children, what methods of instruction we consider best, and even  down to how we view politics today and how we vote.  

  Over the years, I have known only 2 investigators  who 'overcame' their initial bias to move on to successful analysis.  Both overcame the bias very slowly, naturally, case by case, study by study, and it was due to strong enthusiasm and initial shocking success.  They could not deny that the analysis was correct and because of this, they were willing to allow others to criticize their work which was consistently found 'off' in its early stage of "expectation" and application.  Both were so impressed with accuracy that they  abandoned long held beliefs, slowly and through application.  They did a lot of self analysis and talked a great deal about surprises found within their own language.  Both above average in intelligence, and both with self confidence and humility in balance.  

Lesser bias can be a particular emotional attachment to to a specific case, social causes,  partisan politics, and religious views.  These all can impact analysis and must be processed by the analyst not only in the work, but before the analysis, and certainly before a written report is submitted to investigators.  None, alone, is enough to be taken off a case; it is the self awareness that is vital in processing.  

There are several different types of analysts who do this work and some of these categories are not mutually exclusive, but bleed over one to another. 

1.  Instructor only

These are those who simply teach and may or may not have a disconnect from investigatory work, as they remain in theory only, without preparation for the interview based upon the analysis.  

2.  Analysts who investigate.  

These are professionals who are wearing 'two' and sometimes even 'three hats', including polygraph examiners.  These are dedicated professionals who often log many unpaid hours to obtain truth, well outside their own work weeks, and who even attend trainings at their own personal expense.  

3.  Analysts who submit their work to investigators.  This includes federal analysts who assist in local investigations by submitting analysis and specific questions for investigators.  They will analyze a statement and then send not only their conclusions, but specific questions to guide the investigators. 

4.  Analysts who include psychological profiling.  

These are rare and are sought out particular for anonymous author identification and who often present the most detailed and purpose driven questions for investigators.  Please note that some who are full time investigators do actually go this deep into analysis.  

When statements are submitted for analysis, little, and some rims no information is provided.  What is needed is:

*What is the purpose of the statement?  

This is the allegation that caused the statement to be written.  

The only other information needed is:

a.  If the statement is contaminated.  This is where the investigator first "talked with" the subject and then sought a statement.  In these cases, it is best to set aside the statement and not do any in depth analysis.  

b.  If the subject's first language is used.

c.  If the subject has acute mental retardation, adult autism, or developmental disabilities, including extreme mental illness, such as one hearing voices, or seeing visions.  Analysis is still  done, but the analysis is different:  Some of it is specifically done to separate fact from fantasy, and it can be done.  

No other information is provided

This 'blind analysis' may even include:

No reading of the statement prior to analysis.  

In some cases, a group of analysts will show up and be handed a statement 'cold', and asked to work it live, and think out loud.  This is stressful but strongly productive, and it is essential in weeding out 'expectation bias', where the person 'experts' something that may not fit the category.  

The analysis of a statement without the case file does have an impressive impact upon analysts.  

It is rewarding for them to work through a statement, void of all information from the case file, write up their conclusions only to learn just how accurate their findings were, particularly about small facts of the case.  

The impact is powerful. 

It helps analysts recognize the scientific aspect to the work, while the artistic cannot be denied; particularly when the psychological profile is a match with the formally done psychological evaluation in the case file. 

The confirmation from polygraphs is also strong, but not quite to the level of a confession or admission.  

When an analyst has the inevitable confrontation versus the untrained, especially the analyst-investigator, nothing justifies his work more than the signed written confession. 

There is no pushback from the opposition, where even a polygraph may not persuade some.  

The confession, replete with detail, fuels the analyst on in his work. 

He sees others, from other parts of the country, with other training and investigatory experience, be given the same statement and submit the same results, though with varying levels of depth, as to their own finding, and the case is eventually resolved in the signed confession or admission:

There is something deeply satisfying within the realm of justice that surpasses everything else about their careers.  It reminds them of what called them to this field in the first place.  


Tania Cadogan said...

I do product testing and for some i know who is making the product and what it is (often just from the way the initial questions are phrased prior to being accepted as a tester)

Others i have no idea who the maker is and the item i am testing has no identifying markers at all bar the ingredients label or are so well wrapped up in tape that i cannot peak.

I don't know how other testers do a report, mine i start from scratch how it arrived, the outer and any inner packaging and then cent, texture, taste, mouth feel, appearance etc.

Since i am not one for buying designer labels, branded items just because, or influenced by a celebrity endorsing it, i find i am able to do a report based soley on the product itself.

If it is a good product i will and have done said so.
If it is a bad product i and have done told them what i found wrong.
if it has good and bad i again ill and have told them.

I suggest ways it could be improved, i suggest better tag lines or descriptions (usually after i have used SA on the manufacturers claims, often resulting in some biting sarcasm when they are exceptionally dumb.)

I enjoy doing it though i refuse to accept blame for the shrinking sizes of chocolate brands or when the company does exactly what i told them was a bad idea.

I love when it is a blind test since i can only go on what my senses told me as opposed to being swayed because of how makes it or who endorses it.
I did a recent one for a lipstick, i read through some of the other testers reports once the trial ended and i was amazed at how little others actually followed the instructions on how to test and what to include.

At least now i know why tv ads show a strange number for the number of persons who tested it in a survey :)

Hey Jude said...

I like good headphones, Sennheiser, for the PC and for listening to music, but it!s silly to go above lower-mid range as they are all good. I find Apple iPad earphones are good, too, and a snip by comparison. Unfortunately I have cats who like, for reasons they don't explain, to chew through the cords, and through the ear pieces (the little foam covers don't survive even a day), so it's like putting cheese graters in my ears - they also like to destroy my charger leads - only mine, I don't know why. Apple stuff is aesthetically pleasing but too delicate to be practical, especially with my cats. At the moment I am reduced to choosing between 'emergency' el-cheapo earplugs which are so terrible it seems they must have come out of a Christmas cracker, or the cheese-grater Apple earplugs. On the plus side, I bought an el cheapo 'iWant' charger lead which was many feet long and lasted for three months - it was a bit unsightly but it took longer to chew through because it was probably three times thicker than the Apple types. So, maybe time for some nice wireless headphones, though they'll probably find a way to decimate those, too.

I'd say, it's true that food tastes better with heavier cutlery - though obviously, really, it can't. Lol - ridiculous, yet it does. How could one possibly know without switching cutlery mid-meal, and even then it would all be psychological, plus the first tastes are best, so.

Tania Cadogan said...

try using vicks vapor rub or similar on any cords you don't want your cats chewing. They hate the smell.
I did it for a week with my new kitten and even now if she tries to nibble i just have to show her the vapor rub pot and she stops

Hey Jude said...

I think you might be an angel, Tania - I will do that now, Well, I am out of Vick so it will have to be Olbas Oil, more or less the same, it might even be stronger. These little blighters have cost a fortune over the years, especially in headphones.:)

John Mc Gowan said...

OT: Of sorts


Statement Analysis Blog said...

This is not the museum piece I had quoted earlier, but one of the articles that led me to it. I was using google chrome and translate.

For the person who asked for the link, but has refused to condemn me for not finding it yet, I appreciate the trust. I'll find it.


Anonymous said...

There is something to be said for dinner on a real plate vs paper. And wine from a pretty glass is much better than out of a paper cone.
Presentation is everything.
That goes for job interviews as well.

Anonymous said...

Off Topic:
I was wondering if you could analyze a statement of a non-native English speaker. In persons where English is a second language, is there any difference in analyzing? I included statements from "Humans of NY", where a young adult originally from Iraq and a refugee in Turkey is looking into resettlement into the U.S. Wit her family, There is no crime involved, but I was intrigued by the language change. Transcript is posted after. Thanks!

Me2l said...

Observation of something pretty minor: a popular advice columnist swears letters written asking her advice are real; not fabricated. I think I believe that, but based on how similar they all seem to each other in phrasing, tone, sentence structure, I do believe they are edited for clarity. In so doing, they all sound as if they're written by the same person.

Anonymous said...

"When I was a baby I came very close to dying. I’m not sure how to say the name of the disease in English, but all the water in my body started to dry. I couldn’t gain weight and I became very weak. This was during Saddam’s time, and the hospital staff told my mother that in two days they would euthanize me. But my mother refused to accept this. She called everywhere and found a clinic in Jordan that said they could give me treatment. There was an American doctor there who saved my life. We stayed in Jordan until I was seven, and then we moved back to Baghdad. One day I was playing in our garden and I heard very loud noises and the sky was really red and everyone was screaming. It’s very hard to describe. It was like there was blood in the sky.”

(2/11) “This is a photo of me right before the war came. Maybe my parents knew the war was coming, but they didn’t tell me. I wouldn’t have understood. I didn’t even know the meaning of war. Bombs started falling all around us. We lived very near one of Saddam’s castles. My mother told us: ‘It will be very loud, but nothing bad will happen to us. We will all be here together.’ Many houses in our neighborhood were destroyed, but I’d close my ears and sing songs whenever the bombs came close. In the cartoon shows, the good always wins, so I thought that we were good and nothing would happen to us. Then one day I heard a big sound and I saw that my best friend Miriam’s house had been destroyed. We walked to school together every day. I went to see if she was OK and I saw Miriam on the ground. She didn’t have any legs and she was screaming and I can still hear that sound now. They pulled me away but I saw everything. I don’t think it was good for a child to see this.”

"After Miriam died, I began to have silly thoughts. I thought that I was supposed to be President of the World. It sounds funny now but I was just ten years old. I thought that if I was really clever in school and got all the best marks, I would become a leader and I could stop the war. I could just tell everyone to love each other and they would listen to me. I taught myself English during this time. I would listen to American songs and translate every word. I’d watch Hollywood movies. I’d practice talking to myself in front of the mirror every night. I’d even give gum to American soldiers so I could have conversations with them. I thought maybe if I just concentrated on my studies, I could avoid the war. It worked for two years. But one day I was driving with my father and a car bomb exploded ahead of us. I got out of the car because I thought that maybe I could save the people but there were hands and heads in the street. Everyone was dead. It was like a horror movie. It was like Titanic but it was really happening and it was in the street.”

(4/11) “These things are very hard for me to remember, but I try not to cry because I want to be strong for my mother. It was hardest for her because she had children. During the war she had to worry about herself, but she also had to worry about us. It made her very ill. Her blood pressure is very high now. Her hand shakes. She has bladder problems. But she is my hero because she always protected us. One time when my father wasn’t home, a strange man entered our house. But my mother pretended to be a man and screamed downstairs in a very deep voice. And she saved us.”

Anonymous said...

(5/11) “Our house in Baghdad was located near a military compound, and the militia officers wanted it for themselves. They sent three men to our house to order us to leave. When my father refused, they mailed us an envelope with bullets inside. My father was working as a library security guard during this time. The militia went to the library and murdered my father’s coworker—thinking it was him. My father became very scared when he heard this. He told us we had to pack all our clothes into bags and leave Iraq immediately. It was the middle of the night. I didn’t want to go. I didn’t want to leave my bedroom or my school or my friends. I wasn’t even allowed to say goodbye to anyone. Nobody knew we were leaving. When the taxi arrived, I held onto the doorframe and screamed that I wasn’t going. My father pulled me away and told me that we were going to live in a better place. That night we drove to Syria."

(6/11) “I was fourteen when I arrived in Syria. Those were the best two years of my life. The first day we arrived, I made my father take me to school so I could register. I was doing so well in school. I got very good grades. I got so many awards and my teachers kept telling me that I had a very bright future. They told me: ‘One day Aya, you will be the voice of refugees.’ On the weekend I was volunteering to help other refugees. I organized an entire chorus of refugees. Things were going so well. My father was working as a driver. We were very comfortable. Then war came to Syria. It began for me as a bomb threat at our school. Then people began killing each other in the street. I was studying one afternoon, and I looked out the window, and a man smashed another man’s head with a stone. Right in front of me. Our landlord told us: ‘I am leaving the country. Everyone must go.’ So again we became refugees. We put everything we had into six bags, and we left.”
(7/11) “George is my refugee dog. We’ve been through many horrible things together. I found him in Baghdad when he was just a puppy. My father and I were driving down the road and I saw some teenagers holding George by the ears and hitting him. I jumped out of the car and begged them to stop and gave them all the money I had. George was so thin and dirty, and the doctor said he was very sick and he’d only survive if I took perfect care of him. And look at him now! He’s been with me through Iraq, Syria, Turkey… everything. Whenever he sees me crying, he jumps in my lap and uses his paw to pull my hands away from my face.”

Anonymous said...

A8/11) “My years in Turkey have been the hardest four years of my life. When we first arrived from Syria, we couldn’t communicate with anyone. I had no friends. If we wanted an egg from the store, we had to make chicken sounds. I paid for everything in this apartment by working as an interpreter for an NGO. We started at a zero and I built us up to a six, all by myself, and I’m very proud of that. But we can go no further without citizenship. I can’t get a degree. I can’t work any other job. Turkey has taken many refugees and we should be thankful for that. And the people here were nice to us at first. Our neighbors brought us rice and food. But then more refugees came. And more. And then everything changed. Now people shout at us in the streets. They tell us to leave. But we have nowhere to go. A man recently started sending me messages on Facebook, saying: ‘Get out!’ I didn’t even know him! Why me? Why did he choose me? We’ve had to switch apartments four times because our landlord decided that Arabic people are no longer allowed. I’ve been hit by a car. My sister got hit in the face at school and lost two teeth, and now her vision is bad in one eye. Being a refugee is really hard. They blame us for everything. They blame us for no jobs. For crowded streets. For crime. They say that we are the reason for everything bad. And if war ever comes to Turkey, we’ll be the first to die. Because they’ll blame us for that too."

9/11) “We applied for resettlement in America. We did all our paperwork. We had two different interviews in Istanbul. Then we waited for a very long time. For months I kept checking the website, but it always said: ‘Case pending.’ Then one night my friend called me, very excited. It was midnight. She told us there had been an update on the website. I ran to the computer, entered our case number, and it said ‘Case accepted!’ I zoomed in on the word 'accepted’ and my hand started shaking. I screamed to my family: ‘Turn off the TV! We’re going to America!’ It was like a wedding. We turned on the music. We started dancing and crying and kissing each other. A new life! The United States! We couldn’t believe it! Over the next few weeks I spent so much time on the computer. I searched for schools for my brother and sisters. I found the university I wanted to study in. I found a hospital for my mother. I was searching for jobs for my father. I had everything planned. I even found extra clothes for George because I thought it might be cold. In the evenings I’d sit with my sisters and help them plan what their rooms would look like. And Christmas time was coming. We thought we would go to New York during Christmas time! We were even planning to see the big tree! For two months we dreamed like this. Then a letter came in the mail.”

Anonymous said...

(10/11) “It was like a nightmare. I fell on the floor and started screaming: “No, no, no!’ I cried for days. I couldn’t go to work because my eyes were so red. I went to the hospital and they had to give me medicine to calm me down. Security related reasons? What can that mean? They don’t know my family. I know my family. My father was a train driver. Every male in our country had to do military service for six months when they were young, but he only did the radar. He swore to me that he’d never even touched a gun in his life. Our family loved America. My father always told me about America. He made us go talk to American soldiers during the war. Other people were afraid of Americans, but he told us they were here to help us and not to be afraid of them. He told us that America was a place where so many different people lived in peace. So many religions. So many communities. We loved America! Every day we watched Oprah. My father promised me that one day we would go on her show and meet her. We even wrote about Oprah for our assignments in school. Why would we ever hurt America? All of my dreaming ended on the day this letter arrived. I became a person without hope.”
11/11) “Six months ago my father disappeared. He left one morning and didn’t come home. That morning he answered the phone one time, and he said: ‘I’m fine, Aya. I’ll be home soon.’ And he never answered the phone again. You can’t imagine what this has done to my mind. I don’t know if he is dead. I don’t know if he remarried. I know nothing. All day and night I must imagine what has happened. I haven’t even told my younger sisters. I tell them that Daddy went to Istanbul to work but he will be home. They wouldn’t be able to take it. I still post old photos to his Facebook page so it seems like he exists. But it’s been six months, and they want to know why he hasn’t called. I promise he’s a good person, really. I love him so much. He loved me too. He always told me that he was proud of me and I was going to be something in life. But how could he leave me like this? How could he leave all of this on my shoulders? I’m twenty years old. I can’t handle all of this by myself. I don’t need him to work, or make money, but I need him. I need my Daddy. I can’t do this alone much longer. I’m getting tired. I’m a warrior and I’m strong and I’ve fought so much but even warriors get tired. I’ve been having crazy thoughts lately. I don’t want to do it. I’ve been through so much. I wanted to go to school and be something in life. But I can’t do this much longer. I’m alone here and I’m in a very bad place. I feel very scared. I never wanted to be the traditional Arabic girl who marries her cousin and spends all day in the house. I’ve worked so hard to escape it all. And I know it’s dangerous. But if things don’t change for me, I think I’ll have to go back to Iraq.”

Anonymous said...

From this blog post:

"Although there are various bias elements within expectation, it is very rare to overcome this particular error. Our belief regarding human nature not only impacts what we expect people to do, and subsequently what people will say, but it impacts how we view life, death, marriage, work, how we raise our children, what methods of instruction we consider best, and even down to how we view politics today and how we vote.

Over the years, I have known only 2 investigators who 'overcame' their initial bias to move on to successful analysis."

Is there a particular misunderstanding about human nature that causes statement analysts to fail? Or, rather, is it a general lack of understanding about human nature?

Also, about that 2nd paragraph quoted above, does that mean that good/successful statement analysts are rare? That second paragraph above makes me want to sign up for the course (I love a challenge)!

Anonymous said...

Who is this twisted Iranian whose most memorable events occurred on the 11th of the month? I'd put money down its from Texas and enjoys the fruits of 'everything's better with blue bonnet on it.'

(btw, I only read the first few words of each sewntence.

Anonymous said...

Whoever selected the most inexpensive wine as the best wasn’t tasting inexpensive Arrowhead Wine Cellars’ (Lake Erie) Riesling and Chardonnay. They’re undrinkable unless you enjoy sour vinegar with an aftertaste of rubbing alcohol.

Hey Jude said...

Anon @ 7.50 I used to like white, but now prefer the reds, you can't go wrong - well, not after the first bottle. :-D.

The wine I like best costs only around £6 a bottle, a cheap and cheerful Merlot. Tasted blind, I can't tell the difference, so the more expensive, yet still comparatively cheap wines, which Mr Hey Jude prefers, are wasted on me. If it was up to me I wouldn't pay more than £7-8 for a bottle - he probably wouldn't go above £15. 'Not serious wine lovers', some have said, before making a fuss about bouquets and palettes. I'm impervious to it all.

I also have no preference for crystal, except for liking to flick an empty crystal glass for the sound effects, which I have long since discovered is even more taboo than saying 'it's okay' to a connoisseur who just poured you an expensive prized wine - well, I just want to get to the coffee, and I think fine wine collecting is more of a serious affectation than a hobby. :)

It seems to me that some people have a need to impress, and to demonstrate their superior knowledge or taste, and will spend a lot in pursuit of that - I count that as an expression of insecurity - if you're not suitably impressed by wines, cars, houses, or stuff, and can't be made to feel awed and inferior, they don't get it, but stuff is only ever stuff, while it's the people who own, or who try to hide their insecurity behind it, who are of true value. I think acquisitive people are most likely to be drawn in by the marketing techniques, as they like to be able to boast about the product. When people find their own worth to be reflected by their material possessions, spending more is like increasing their own value in the eyes of others. That's how it seems to me, anyway, and it's sad. I like a few nice things, which I use till they need replacing - I read up in Which? and I love a bargain. Stuff annoys me, it takes up as much place in the mind as it does in a house.

elf said...

Dr Frasier Crane would disagree lol

trustmeigetit said...

Works with dogs too!

John Mc Gowan said...

OT Update:

Davey Blackburn:

Resonate Church:

27 December 2015

Contains VT and or audio. Duration 1 hour 14 mins

Resonate Church – Carrying Hope in the Midst of Hurt

Whether big or small, we all experience pain in our lives. But if we trust in Jesus, no matter the cause of our pain, it won’t ultimately end in evil. God wants to restore us and use our pain for His glory. In this Christmas message, Davey shares what God has been teaching him about carrying incredible hope in the midst of unbelievable pain.

@ 12 mins 30 secs he says:

Note the order. What is missing!

"Now let me stop for just a second just a second. Because i believe there are some people in here, who you feel like there have been some things on your life that have been killed. They have died, maybe a dream they had has died, mayb..maybe it's a a a job or career, that has died, maybe you've settled into something that's less than what you thought you're gunna achieve at this stage in your life. Maybe, listen, maybe it's a family member or close friend, maybe Christmas is difficult for you. Because you've just experienced loss. And death, and here's what i know about are god....

It is not until 17:30 that he speaks Amanda's name, and this is in conjunction with Amanda's Dad, and last's for approx 3 1/2 mins in 1 hour and 14 mins. He then begins his now well documented "tangents"

@ 51:51 he says: " I don't care if you believe me or not. I believe that Amanda is listed among the martyrs now. You know why, you know why. Because she and i moved up here to reach people. Just like the people who killed her. Yes i said it" Listen to what he says about the people ("the enemy") who killed her.

He then goes into the number of people who have joined recently, (his staple) and reads out Emails sent to him about the death of Amanda.

Tania Cadogan said...

Thanks John, he just can't help himself.
He is leakier than a sieve.

John Mc Gowan said...

tania cadogan said...

Thanks John, he just can't help himself.
He is leakier than a sieve.


John Mc Gowan said...

OT Update:

'Making a Murderer': Petitions call for Steven Avery's release

(CNN)Fans of a popular Netflix docuseries are calling for the release of its subject.

Almost 200,000 people have signed online petitions seeking a pardon for Steven Avery, whose his case is the subject of "Making a Murderer."

'Making a Murderer': Our newest obsession

Petitions have been launched on and at the White House, asking for a presidential pardon for Avery and his nephew Brendan Dassey, who were convicted of murdering photographer Teresa Halbach.

"Steven Avery should be exonerated at once by presidential pardon, and the Manitowoc County officials complicit in his two false imprisonments should be held accountable to the highest extent of the U.S. criminal and civil justice systems," the petition states.

Avery was released from prison in 2003 when DNA evidence exonerated him in a woman's brutal attack. He had served 18 years for the crime. Two years later, in the midst of a civil suit he filed over his false conviction, Avery was arrested and convicted for Halbach's murder.

Filmmakers Laura Ricciardi and Moira Demos put together "Making a Murderer" over a decade. Former Calumet County District Attorney Ken Kratz was the special prosecutor in the case against Avery and his nephew and has said the pair left out crucial evidence that pointed to Avery's guilt -- a charge the filmmakers have denied.

"One of the things I hope viewers who really engage with the series will take away from this is this question of, if they have lingering questions, are they comfortable living with that?" Ricciardi told The Daily Beast. "There are now two people who are behind bars, probably for life. Do our viewers feel satisfied with the process that led to those convictions?"

Anonymous said...

A must read in nastiness, self-centered alcoholic fueled rant:

Anonymous said...

John, what got me about SA is he said something like: Why would they find evidence?

I would have expected: How would they find evidence? (That is, if none were there).

Statement Analysis Blog said...

A few things:

First, Tania: tania cadogan said...
Thanks John, he just can't help himself.
He is leakier than a sieve.
January 4, 2016 at 9:50 AM

Bizarre but true.

Next, anonymous: Anonymous Anonymous said...
John, what got me about SA is he said something like: Why would they find evidence?

I would have expected: How would they find evidence? (That is, if none were there).

(end of quote)

Very good observation. Questions used as responses are very important.


200,000 signatures asking for Steven Avery to be pardoned.

This is a lot of people who are deceived and it highlights how rare discernment is, and how powerful multi-media is in persuasion.

I blame, for the most part, the prosecutor and investigators who all brought suspicion upon the case, by their own hands. Far better to present what they had factually, and tell the truth. We all make mistakes and every investigation has mistakes. Let a jury decide and treat others as you would like yourself treated.

We must have justice but consider this:

If your son was alleged to have done something, would you want honest police and an honest prosecutor, or would you accept those who "lock and load" and do whatever "it takes" to get a conviction?

Good investigators do not need to manufacture, intimidate, nor coerce confessions.

Skill trumps falsehood and civil rights of Americans still matters though it comes in and out of vogue.


Hey Jude said...

Elf - thanks for the introduction to Frasier - I'm more than a bit late. I didn't like 'Cheers' so didn't bother with Frasier - I should be more willing to give shows a chance.


I don't immediately understand what he means by 'lock and load' - I assume he meant something like one shouldn't 'zone in' on, or be prepared to target one person, particularly, as a suspect. It's an aggressive sounding thing to say, but then one would expect investigators to be aggressive in the pursuit of what can only pass for justice in such a horrible crime.

Hey Jude said...

OT (I keep forgetting)

John said of Davey:

@ 51:51 he says: " I don't care if you believe me or not. I believe that Amanda is listed among the martyrs now. You know why, you know why. Because she and i moved up here to reach people. Just like the people who killed her. Yes i said it" Listen to what he says about the people ("the enemy") who killed her.

Is he saying that the people who killed Amanda are the same people who moved to Indiana to reach people? Or is he saying they moved there to reach people just like the people who killed her - reaching out to would-be murderers was there reason for moving there? Well, that's not true. White, middle-class with the potential to tithe well is the most likely demographic - people like themselves.

Tania Cadogan said...

I also believe Amanda is among the martyrs. Do you know why? Because she and I moved up here to reach people just like the people who killed her."

Is this leakage?

The people who moved up here killed her?

Oh dear davey.

Tania Cadogan said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Tania Cadogan said...

Does he actually know the definition of a martyr?

In the context of church history, from the time of the persecution of early Christians in the Roman Empire, it developed that a martyr was one who was killed for maintaining a religious belief, knowing that this will almost certainly result in imminent death (though without intentionally seeking death). This definition of martyr is not specifically restricted to the Christian faith. The first Christian witness to be killed for his testimony was Saint Stephen (whose name means "crown"), and those who suffer martyrdom are said to have been "crowned." From the time of Constantine Christianity became the religion of the realm and there was less and less persecution. As some wondered how then they could most closely follow Christ there was a development of desert spirituality, desert monks, self-mortification, ascetics, (Paul the Hermit, St. Anthony), following Christ by separation from the world. This was a kind of white martyrdom, dying to oneself every day, as opposed to a red martyrdom, the giving of one's life in a violent death.

Why does he refer to Amanda as a martyr?

She was allegedly the victim of a home invasion, they would not be demanding she renounce her faith, they would be demanding money,pin numbers etc.

Is this leakage from davey himself?

Is he telling us he wanted Amanda to renounce some or all of her beliefs and she refused?

He demeaned her love for hergod and jesus, he demeaned her faith, he demeaned her sexually, he demeaned her education, he demeaned her.

As he proudly told us in one sermon, anything goes in the bedroom once married.

Did he demand things that Amanda was not comfortable with or wanted to do?
Did she learn the truth about his sexuality?

On learning the truth about who she married and what would happen in the future, did she decide to walk away?

Amanda walking away from him would mean the truth of the marriage coming out in court, it could not be allowed to happen.

A divorced pastor with a sexuality problem means his dreams of a megachurch come crashing down.

Start up money needing to be paid back, no congregation, he would be left with a son who was proof of Amanda, proof of her faith, proof of his lies to her, proof of his lies to his congregation and followers.
With Weston alive, Amanda's spirit is still alive and there to haunt him.
Weston would grow up and want to know what happened to his mom, why davey did what he did and didn't do,
Weston is a living breathing reminder of Amanda , who and what she was, everything davey isn't.

Did Amanda die not as a result of a home invasion, did she die because of her beliefs, she believed her love for her faith meant she could no longer live a lie with a child and one on the way.
She refused to change or alter her beliefs to suit him so she had to die?

She died to let davey live his life, the way he wanted to?

Hey Jude said...

That sounds a reasonable summary of how it all might have been. I would so like to see his browser history from this time last year, or the year before. Poor Amanda.