The following is a composite theory based solely upon the opinions of law enforcement professionals trained in Statement Analysis. I call it "The Baker's Dozen" where those with a minimum of 5 years experience, and a maximum of 40 years experience all weighed in on the Amanda Blackburn murder.
They have no association with the investigation and have only gleaned the information from media.
They relied upon Statement Analysis, Behavioral Analysis, and their own extensive experience in investigating homicides, as well as home invasions.
This is a short consensus of their opinion and what they think happened. It is a narrative of opinion.
All parties are innocent until proven guilty, including those in custody now. Police have stated that they knew, "100%" (from media) that the husband of the victim was not the shooter. Suspects are in custody in the murder. This represents private opinions on the publicly stated quotes and information.
Picture a needle with -10 to the left, 0 in the center, and + 10 to the right. 0 is neutral, while moving negative to the left, indicates potential guilt of the husband, while moving to the right suggests innocence of the husband.
Most homicides involving pregnant women prove out to show involvement by the man close to her and the pregnancy, including husband, ex husband, estranged husband, or boyfriend.
Jealousy can enter such cases and lead to violence.
Some shaken baby victims, for example, were killed by the non-biological husband, who resented the child that he did not father. In this case, it is not known if there was infidelity on the part of the victim, but there was nothing in the statements to suggest anything but the husband being the father of the unborn child.
That the number one suspect in the murder of pregnant women is a statistic not ignored by the investigators and all felt this was important to be open to.
2. Relationship Quality
In domestic homicides, the quality of the relationship is always 'front and center' in the investigation. Since husband/boyfriends are the most likely responsible, investigators ask if there was a history of marital discord. If so, the percentages move in the specific direction of the earlier statistic.
In this case we are told by both the victim and the husband that the marital relationship was in turmoil to the point of separation, and with specific elements.
In domestic homicides, the husband is first viewed, and then the quality of the relationship is viewed, but investigators then look for something specific to happen to cause the violence: this is a "trigger." When a stressor or trigger is found, it also moves the statistical needle to move.
A 'trigger' or a 'stressor' is something that pushes the relationship to the level where violence goes from thought to action; a stressor is sought to be identified by investigators. Many times the stressor is infidelity. This becomes an underlying anger that suppressed, can eventually surface against the child (shaken baby syndrome above) where the 'cuckolded' husband is saddled with a constant living breathing reminder of his wife's infidelity. It may be worse if the child is a boy and looks like the biological father. Infidelity on either part can be a trigger. If the husband has a new love interest, it could be a trigger in the bad relationship, just as if the wife has been unfaithful to him.
Other triggers can include sudden loss of job, change of job, loss of support, death in the family, pregnancy, and so on. Investigators seek to learn if something within the relationship has changed making a bad relationship now worse.
In this case, the investigators conclusively pointed to the husband's own identification of the trigger: pregnancy. The husband specifically named the pregnancy as the stressor or trigger that made the relationship disruption, though the wife identified the husband's career as the source of discord.
All recognized the acute obsession the husband had with his work as well as the distancing language between him and the victim as extreme. The initial statement as well as the consistent distancing language shown towards the victim confirmed the husband's and victim's assertions about the marital discord.
4. Behavioral Analysis
All investigators were bothered by the following points of the case:
a. The timing of the home invasion
b. The element of violence in the home invasion
c. The patterns of behavior by the husband
That each Tuesday he not only went to the gym at the same time, but always had the same pone call, at the same time on the very date of the home invasion robbery.
That on this particular date, the husband stayed out of the home for a full 40 minutes while his wife lay dying stood out, in particular, as 'taking the coincidence too far' for reason, to the investigators.
Although the showing off of a gun in a 'sermon' stood out, powerfully, as a revelation of what was on his mind, just days before the murder, it was the additional and apparently unnecessary delay, in the driveway, that no investigator could dismiss. They stated that they would need to learn that this, too, was his pattern, to reduce the suspicion based upon coincidence.
All were also confronted with the husband's lack of fear of the uncaught killers, as if he had confidence that he could not possibly be the next target.
All attempted to 'explain away' any of these points, to justify innocence. Each attempt, including examining religious language, did not suffice. That there was no call for justice was bothersome, but not so much as having a home invaded and a wife murdered: he had no fear. This coupled with not only distancing language, but was taken with the drive for the career, all stood out as behavior suggesting knowledge of the crime.
5. Intelligence of Husband
This was another universal point: he is well above average intelligence and would not have been so foolish as to hire a hitman.
They stated that if he orchestrated the opportunity for the crime, he used this intelligence.
All expressed concern about local law enforcement training and/or ability to conduct a thorough interview with the husband, due to his mastery of language and intellect. They stated that a highly skilled interviewer was needed and most expressed some concern of local unwillingness to utilize federal assistance in interviewing.
The intelligence was noted in the publishing and commercializing of the murder; he knew how to present himself and attempt to utilize the death for the future salesmanship, including calling the murder a "story" and "event." It was also noted that in his attempt to gain authority over others, he revealed himself in the 'shower' statement, which should stand very strongly to investigators in how to strategize the interview: they must use his intelligence to get him to reveal the truth.
6. A Powerful Secret
All stated that the analysis of the 'hidden secret lie' was likely sexuality. This was affirmed by:;
a. The mentor's statement about "something very wrong" in which a female would rectify
b. The "shower" statement, which they concluded not only an association with the psychological need for cleansing.
c. His mentor's own wording: while avoiding speaking of Christ's Resurrection and specific details of the victim's own life and love of Christ, the mentor spoke in sexual terms about the physical attributes of the husband indicating that sex was on the speaker's mind.
d. The videos. They stated that the videos showed not only one who frequently spoke about sex, but seemed to have a need to persuade his audience of his sex drive...for women. Examples cited included the reference to the gym, his depersonalizing of the victim in his 'we have to have sex before dinner' statement, as well as his deliberate choreographing for the audience, including clothing, bearing and appearance.
That one would 'live a lie' is associated with continual stress and ongoing resentment, which can build over time, and be pushed to action by a stressor or 'trigger' event. The lie, if true, that is lived, is one in which bitterness never goes away, even during happier times and can grow with time.
If the victim knew of this secret, a sense of impotence could come over the liar, himself, and build resentment, fearful of exposure at any time, with the sense of living in a marriage of "blackmail", even unspoken, while being silently coerced into submission, lest 'she tell.'
This can lead to great fear of not only exposure, but fear of divorce.
A divorce would cripple his career and was not an option.
The last portion of deep embittered feelings in living a lie is the thought that happiness or contentment may 'exist with another', only increasing resentment of the victim, over time.
This was something heavily discussed in light of the distancing language he used. The language of distance was consistent with resentment.
The 'correction' of language was noted: whether he or advisors read the analysis, there were changes made after analysis was posted.
It was also noted, though not heavily, that the distancing language with his son (and pre born murdered child) was consistent with one 'living a lie in life', full time. Each point continues to push the needle in the negative, lower and lower.
7. Home Invasions
All pointed to the crime scene as having elements of possible staging, if, for example, she was not sexually assaulted. In cases where the clothing is removed without sexual assault, the perpetrator may have done this for the appearance of sexual assault.
Other elements noted included the unlocked door combining with the routine of the gym, and the phone call, coupled with what is known about home invasions: most seek to go in and out quickly, undetected, and want either items to quickly pawn, or cash, which would suggest prior knowledge of the home (drug dealers have cash, for example) but home invasions do not always have such violence, and if met with resistance, the violence is generally not associated with the removal of clothing.
Questions that arose include if these same perpetrators committed violence in other robberies, and if so, what was the nature of the violence, and what was the result of the violence, warranting answers.
The investigators all stated that the nature of the case pointed to anything but random. The details all point to orchestration.
What was asked was to consider this possible scenario:
That if the husband is involved, he would have used his intellect to orchestrate it, and would not have simply sought out a killer to be easily traced.
He would have had contact with members higher up in the gang, through schools, or the church, who would hear an opportunity that included a severe complaint against the wife. They would be able to send low level criminals to the right neighborhood, and to the right home, at the right time, where not only would the husband not be home, but the door would be unlocked, there would be items easily available for theft and pawning, while a 'hated woman' would be alone, hinting, but not stating, that life would be far better without her.
Understanding that someone was willing to allow his home to be vandalized was enough of an invitation. With complaints about the wife, especially the sexual complaints (which included public statements) would be enough 'hint' to let a gang know where an easy robbery would result and young gang's ruthlessness (dedication to the gang) could be tested.
That the husband remained on the driveway for 40 minutes instead of taking the call inside the house upon his arrival stands out as 'all too much' to be a coincidence. It is not known, but apparently possible, that had he gone in 40 minutes earlier, that the stopping of the bleeding, or hinderance of it, may have saved her life.
As they stated, everything taken together suggests orchestration of this crime. The details each fall into place and given his intelligence, he would have 'suggested' a good place for a gang to hit, giving the address, date and time.
They needed to hear motive. They did.
They needed to have:
1. The statistics of who does this
2. The marital relationship weighed in the negative
3. The presence of a stressor or trigger taking a negative further
4. The Behavior of the husband immediately after the murder
5. Examined the husband's intellectual ability to pull this off
6. A Secret, but powerful lie that is lived evidenced
7. Home invasions examined and factored in
They factored all of these in, with all fulfilled.
Most theories in a homicide are presented for debate; while other theories present themselves over time.
This is the latter.
All these elements factored in to produce a theory that they felt would be difficult to disprove in order to be comfortable professionally.
Some theories are presented and then examined. In this case, the theory developed naturally, with the post crime statements and behavior.
When a theory is developed naturally, we attempt to 'punch holes' in it, attempting to disprove it. They found the 'needle' consistently pushing to the left, unable to make strong arguments to the contrary.
Police, thus far, appear satisfied that they have solved the crime and that the husband is not involved.
There are those who do not have access to the information police have suspect the husband's involvement.